I don't play much poker - does it show?
It makes sense, I'd not really thought to analyse this 88 call but since the thread got this far I thought I'd have a look. So:
I've said Notkin raises: 22+,A2+,K2s+,K9o+,Q5s+,Q9o+,J6s+,J9o+,T6s+,T9o,96s+,98o,85s+,75s+,65s,54s
The button (4bb) I assume hasn't got there by being loose, so give him: 22+,A2s+,A7o+,KTs+,KJo+,QTs+,JTs
The sb (36bb) I don't really know what to give but I've said that AT is the worse he jams to give a ranage of: 99+,AT+
I then give Notkin an overcalling range of a very tight: JJ+,AK
I know there's a lot of assumptions on ranges and they can all be tweaked etc but I don't think this can be a million miles away taking all things into account. I have also set the payouts to the correct amounts based on the structure.
Apparently the 8bb stack should overcall here with: (3.8%) TT+,AQs+,AKo and 99 is almost exactly break even. If you suggest that Notkin can overcall with AQs then it actually becomes slightly profitable.
As played though 88 loses $1260 of equity, and TT would net +$2266. So it's much closer than I actually thought. Still 100% snap foldings though.
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