88 Call or Fold?

[shipitgood]

We have 88, OTB, it's a £33 BH, theres about 50ish left, 40 Paid.

Blinds are 300/600

We have 12k at the start of the hand.

So 88 OTB, cut off limps - he has about the same as us 12kish, SB has 20k and everyone covered. BB has 3/4 bigs.

We make it 2k, SB Jams (has us covered)

Shortie BB folds and limper folds,

What would you do?

I really hated it, I so wanted to call but ended up folding.

Reads, we are new to the table, have only played 1 orbit, player in the SB we havnt seen him play a hand yet.

Think we are racing or totally crushed a lot here.

What range are we calling with here?

[jezza777]

 I think you  can raise less pre even with a limper, especially with no antes . WP to the sb for jamming you can't really call.

[ExiledDub]

Disclaimers in advance:
1.   I have never posted in PHA before and am doing so here to try and develop my own game analysis as well as to try and answer your question…need to start somewhere and I guess that practice will make perfect
2.   I don’t play this high so my thoughts may not be relevant or well developed but I’ll share them for what they are worth

What would I do?
•   I would have raised but to an amount closer to 1500 as per Jezza’s suggestion
•   Similar to you I would have been reaching for my puke bucket once the SB shoves and like Jezza I’ve got to give him/her lots of credit for doing so
•   This is a spot that I have found myself in similarly and also wondered what to do and the things that I am now considering in your example are the following:
   Villain’s range: I’m guessing that you are either well ahead or well behind as opposed to being racing or well behind as he/she could do this with K2os as much as with A10+ given you still have fold equity…let’s assume that they do this with any pair, any Ace, K8+, Q8+ and some suited and unsuited connectors  say 54+ to capture a mixture of their strong and bluff/semi-bluff hands
   The pot: so there’s 15.5K effective in the pot giving us odds of 1.5:1 which if I’m correct we need to win 60% of the time to break even
   The amount of bounties that we have collected: if I had already recouped most of the £30 fee back in bounties I am free-rolling the tournament and am more likely to gamble for the win as if we win the pot we have ~25K or 40 bigs which I’m assuming puts us near the top and guarantees us being itm
   How our hand plays against their range: now I had to use some calculators here as my mental arithmetic skills and poker probability knowledge do not extend this far but: according to the holygrailofpoker’s calculator our 88s win versus one opponent with any two cards ~69% of the time and loses ~31% and using the range we assigned above our 88s win 61% of the time and loses 39%

So I guess that if in game I had the 45mins to spare that it has taken me to work this all out I would have definitely called. In play like you were I am 50:50 to call/fold and the real decider for me is the amount of bounties I have won as if I have recouped over 50% of the fee in heads then I am calling as I like to gamble and play for the win

Would appreciate some feedback on my thought process above


PS - can anyone enlighten me on how you format your posts so that you have bullet points or so that it keeps the correct formatting when pasting from word?

[Rexas]

Is there anything wrong with just jamming over the limper? We've got 20bbs, a pair, a decent amount in the pot already given the limper, and 88 isn't all that fun to iso and take a flop with given stack sizes. If for some reason I decided to raise to this amount, I'm not raise folding. We're then basically bluffing with no blockers for a significant percentage of our stack when effective stacks leave us open to getting jammed on. I'm raise calling, and being fairly happy about it, 88 is unlikely to be doing that badly against the guys range here which should be pretty wide.

[Rexas]

Disclaimers in advance:
1.   I have never posted in PHA before and am doing so here to try and develop my own game analysis as well as to try and answer your question…need to start somewhere and I guess that practice will make perfect
2.   I don’t play this high so my thoughts may not be relevant or well developed but I’ll share them for what they are worth

What would I do?
•   I would have raised but to an amount closer to 1500 as per Jezza’s suggestion
•   Similar to you I would have been reaching for my puke bucket once the SB shoves and like Jezza I’ve got to give him/her lots of credit for doing so
•   This is a spot that I have found myself in similarly and also wondered what to do and the things that I am now considering in your example are the following:
   Villain’s range: I’m guessing that you are either well ahead or well behind as opposed to being racing or well behind as he/she could do this with K2os as much as with A10+ given you still have fold equity…let’s assume that they do this with any pair, any Ace, K8+, Q8+ and some suited and unsuited connectors  say 54+ to capture a mixture of their strong and bluff/semi-bluff hands
   The pot: so there’s 15.5K effective in the pot giving us odds of 1.5:1 which if I’m correct we need to win 60% of the time to break even
   The amount of bounties that we have collected: if I had already recouped most of the £30 fee back in bounties I am free-rolling the tournament and am more likely to gamble for the win as if we win the pot we have ~25K or 40 bigs which I’m assuming puts us near the top and guarantees us being itm
   How our hand plays against their range: now I had to use some calculators here as my mental arithmetic skills and poker probability knowledge do not extend this far but: according to the holygrailofpoker’s calculator our 88s win versus one opponent with any two cards ~69% of the time and loses ~31% and using the range we assigned above our 88s win 61% of the time and loses 39%

So I guess that if in game I had the 45mins to spare that it has taken me to work this all out I would have definitely called. In play like you were I am 50:50 to call/fold and the real decider for me is the amount of bounties I have won as if I have recouped over 50% of the fee in heads then I am calling as I like to gamble and play for the win

Would appreciate some feedback on my thought process above


PS - can anyone enlighten me on how you format your posts so that you have bullet points or so that it keeps the correct formatting when pasting from word?

Firstly, welcome to the PHA! Lots of love for the disclaimer :p Fwiw, this is a great place to look through to try and improve, and all contributions are definitely welcome. Also a fantastically written and presented post.

As I've said in the above post, I probably wouldn't be raising, id be jamming it in. But, I definitely agree that if we do raise, it should be smaller, since we're unlikely to get the limper to fold for either amount, so we should stick with the smaller sizing and keep our stack to pot ratio as low as possible (to make the stack sizes post more manageable).

You do need to have a little look at your pot odds calculation. We don't need 60% equity to call, we need 40%, which goes some way to explaining why if I'd raised to this size I'd be raise calling.

We have to call approx 10k into a pot of 15.2k (not 15.5, the sb is the one who jammed so his 300 doesnt count). Which is approx 1.5 to 1, or 1/2.5 as a fraction. This translates to 40/100 or 40%.

I'd also wanna make a comment about your allocation of ranges. I don't think anyone who isnt a total sicko with lots of knowledge about his opponent (knowing hes raise folding a hand as strong as 88 here) is going to be jamming anywhere near that wide. I'd give him any pair, any two broadway cards, and most suited Ax hands. Against this range, which is a little over 20% of hands, we are about a 55% favourite to win the hand, give or take. This makes it a very clear call. Even against a tighter range of any pair, A9+ and the suited broadways, we're getting like 52%, and its a very clear call. We have to knock his range all the way down to 5% of hands, which seems way too tight, before our call is break even. So, raise folding here is a bit of a disaster, really.

I also wouldn't consider the amount of bounties I have as a factor in making my decision, as far as I'm concerned I'm looking to make +EV plays wherever I can

As for formatting posts, I'm afraid I have no idea, I still can't open word without several hours of google searching!

[Rexas]

Something I hadn't considered actually (which would make it even more of a call) is the effect of having a bounty in play. Each chip represents a percentage of the total prizepool, so each chip in that sense has a monetary value (just don't ask mike caro to go through it with you). Since that is the case, a bounty is also a percentage of the prizepool, and in the case of a progressive bounty (which I believe they are on sky) at this stage in the tournament it could be a pretty large percentage. This will start to factor into ICM stuff and affect the amount of money in the pot if we theoretically convert each chip to its monetary equivalent and throw the bounties in too. I wouldn't be quite sure on how to start looking at this, but if anyone has done already or is up for giving it a go, shout

[shipitgood]

Disclaimers in advance:
1.   I have never posted in PHA before and am doing so here to try and develop my own game analysis as well as to try and answer your question…need to start somewhere and I guess that practice will make perfect
2.   I don’t play this high so my thoughts may not be relevant or well developed but I’ll share them for what they are worth

What would I do?
•   I would have raised but to an amount closer to 1500 as per Jezza’s suggestion
•   Similar to you I would have been reaching for my puke bucket once the SB shoves and like Jezza I’ve got to give him/her lots of credit for doing so
•   This is a spot that I have found myself in similarly and also wondered what to do and the things that I am now considering in your example are the following:
   Villain’s range: I’m guessing that you are either well ahead or well behind as opposed to being racing or well behind as he/she could do this with K2os as much as with A10+ given you still have fold equity…let’s assume that they do this with any pair, any Ace, K8+, Q8+ and some suited and unsuited connectors  say 54+ to capture a mixture of their strong and bluff/semi-bluff hands
   The pot: so there’s 15.5K effective in the pot giving us odds of 1.5:1 which if I’m correct we need to win 60% of the time to break even
   The amount of bounties that we have collected: if I had already recouped most of the £30 fee back in bounties I am free-rolling the tournament and am more likely to gamble for the win as if we win the pot we have ~25K or 40 bigs which I’m assuming puts us near the top and guarantees us being itm
   How our hand plays against their range: now I had to use some calculators here as my mental arithmetic skills and poker probability knowledge do not extend this far but: according to the holygrailofpoker’s calculator our 88s win versus one opponent with any two cards ~69% of the time and loses ~31% and using the range we assigned above our 88s win 61% of the time and loses 39%

So I guess that if in game I had the 45mins to spare that it has taken me to work this all out I would have definitely called. In play like you were I am 50:50 to call/fold and the real decider for me is the amount of bounties I have won as if I have recouped over 50% of the fee in heads then I am calling as I like to gamble and play for the win

Would appreciate some feedback on my thought process above


PS - can anyone enlighten me on how you format your posts so that you have bullet points or so that it keeps the correct formatting when pasting from word?

Hey Exiled, welcome!

Agree with everyone, raise sizing is off. Whole idea is to get shortie all in, and limper to fold. Even if the sb folds, and bb (shortie) jams theres a good chance the limper comes along (bounty up for grabs!!). Maybe not, limper could have folded. But that was the idea behind the bet size. If shortie jams, and limper calls, I can not re-ship, I'm forced to call (under bet)

I don't mind the logic behind the bet, but it didn't work out here.

As played, fully understand where Exiled and Rexas are coming from.

It's really frustrating I have so much of my stack in the middle. That's why it's so annoying having to fold, tbh can't ever remember a time I've raised so much and folded. This hand was quite unique for me.

I  understand the reasoning behind people saying call. I, however, think the villians range is so nutted here it's unreal. The SB  (during the hand) wasn't even a consideration they fold then it's me the shortie and the limper. When SB Jams - we've not seem them play a hand so for - I think at best I can see AK, AQ here. Most times I reckon, t'm totally dominated 10s - AA. It doesn't look like im folding here ever. Also there's a good chance shortie's coming along the SB is not scared their cards will be seen. I can't see them doing it with any marginal hand, or even a hand like 99s. Could be totally wrong off course. I generally go a lot on feel / and also how general player population plays, all being said I think despite a mistake (in the raise size prE) I just have to grin and bear it and fold. I still have a decent enough stack and will have better spots than this, despite the fact I've put so much in, just cut my lossess really.

Agree with Rexas, jamming would be totally fine here with 20 bigs.

Was speaking to someone on Skype about this hand (at the time), we can over limp here too with .

Don't know about the pros and cons of over limping.   

[shipitgood]

This is the range I would put them on here

(10 10) JJ QQ KK AA, AK, AQ

[Rexas]

Against that exact range, we're getting 38% ish on a call, which makes it VERY slightly losing. However, I still think this range is far too tight. All that has happened here is a guy has limped and we've isoed, its not like we've 3bet anyone. I don't think we have a basis for saying he's jamming that tight. Even if hes only jamming A-10 and 99+ here, mathematically it's still a call. Moreover, we haven't considered the bounty in the pot, which makes the monetary value of the pot larger but the amount we have to call the same. This probably makes it a call even against the range you are suggesting. Tbh, this isn't even close for me, to do anything but call is bad.

We shouldn't put ourselves in a position where we can't raise if the short stack ships and the limper calls, but with him having 3/4bbs, I think his range for jamming over any raise we make and his range for calling a jam that we make are going to be very, very similar, so we actually gain very little by raising. Indeed, we lose pretty badly imo for raise folding. Jamming is definitely better, as the limper just isn't going to limp-fold very much to any reasonable raise we make as you are suggesting, but will fold a lot more to a jam. This is a much better way of isoing the short stack, if that's your intention, and will show a greater profit in the long run.

[Rexas]

EDIT - Most of that's bollocks, we don't have the guy covered, just re-read op! *sigh* Point still stands tho, CALL

[willrobrobu]

This is the range I would put them on here

(10 10) JJ QQ KK AA, AK, AQ

crazy tight range.

[shipitgood]

lol Tis

[ExiledDub]

Thanks all for the welcome and the feedback on my thoughts.

Range: Rexas I get what you're saying re the range that I assigned being way too wide without any additional information...think I have been reading too much of the more advanced stuff here and got ahead of myself...equally I like the more standard range that you put on the villain.  Do you not think that - given his shove over our iso  as you accurately described it - it is okay to include some bluffs in their range or am I levelling myself by trying to get too clever with my analysis.

Equity: Rexas could you explain to me why we need to 40% and not 60% to call.  I agree with the 1.5:1 ratio which I translated into 3:2 or 3/5 so 60%? If you could show me where I'm going wrong that would be much appreciated

Bounty equity Thanks for pointing out the bounty equity that is in the pot too as I had not considered that before.  My point re the number of bounties that I had captured versus the entry fee related more to my risk appetite which increases as I capture more bounties and leads me (to a degree) to play more for stacks/to-win without becoming completely reckless.  Now whether this is more or less EV I guess depends on whether I am more prone to making EV+ decisions when my risk profile is closer to its norm or higher than norm.

Logic behind the original play Shipitgood, I like the creativity and thinking behind the play and if it comes off I reckon you feel like the cat that got the cream.  I guess you just didn't think of what happens if the SB does the unexpected and that's what I love about this game...someone doing the unexpected and testing my thinking.  Although I prefer when the roles are reversed.

what would you have done if you were the SB? This got me thinking as to whether I would have the nerve to pull the trigger like the SB and what range would I need to be doing this with to make it profitable?

Given what occurred what range of hands (assuming we don't hold the 88s) would we feel happy with calling the reshove by the SB if we were the hero? So lets say we were the hero  and had made the raise without looking at our cards and hoping to take down the blinds and the limper without contest and were happy to call with any two if one of the shorties did shove...what range are happy to call the SB with when we do look at our cards?

[WotRTheChances]

I'd make it a bit less pre, but i don't think it's a huge problem as it's sky with no antes. On any other site (with antes and not joke-tight playerpool) i'd be fist-pumping it in here regardless of if it was a KO or not. Even in this spot folding seems pretty crazy... i mean if we're folding 88 to a jam here we have to know that villain's jamming range is hilariously too narrow. With no history i feel like we should be calling. If you've got history and either you've not been isoing limpers nearly enough or villain has been seen to be v.tight then I think we can fold, but given the range villain should be jamming and the value of doubling up here (in terms of future bounties + tournament position near bubble etc.) I feel i'd be calling.

If i were villain i'd be happily jamming 22+ A2-A5s ATs+ AJo+ KQ, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 9Ts etc.
He's only jamming 20bb eff and if called he's got bounty potential from whoever calls... plus people will be calling off tight due to being near bubble and can assume we are isoing wide for the same reason.

Even if we've not quite got the equity to be calling off here (and i think we must be close, unless villains range is absurd tight) then factoring in future bounty equity (we'll then have basically everyone covered) and will be in a position to abuse the bubble... i'm calling

[Rexas]

Thanks all for the welcome and the feedback on my thoughts.

Range: Rexas I get what you're saying re the range that I assigned being way too wide without any additional information...think I have been reading too much of the more advanced stuff here and got ahead of myself...equally I like the more standard range that you put on the villain.  Do you not think that - given his shove over our iso  as you accurately described it - it is okay to include some bluffs in their range or am I levelling myself by trying to get too clever with my analysis.

Personally, I think the short stack in the big blind makes it a little harder for the small blind to jam complete airball stuff. I mean, he effectively should be coming along with any two cards, and there isn't a side pot if the BB calls and everyone else folds, so this should make him shy away from jamming the 56ss type hands. Just seems like a totally unnecessary thing to do. That being said, hands like low suited Axs are basically bluffs, as well as the lower broadway hands, since you're unlikely to get called by a hand worse than these, but they are doing very well against the sort of hands the BB should be getting in.

As a general rule of thumb, if we are readless in a situation, I tend to shy away from putting my opponents on random bluffs. I like to see proof that they are capable of doing so before I start including random bluffs in their ranges, especially in situations like this, so I stick to thinking of an ABC, sensible range. I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that the villain won't look down at a pair and fold, and won't look down at say QJ ss and fold, but those hands are a lot different to 56 ss. Basically I'm assuming he's competent and standard until I am given a reason to think otherwise. In relation to this hand, I've given what I think are realistically the best and worse case scenarios for us in terms of the villains range. In game, I'd probably be thinking any suited broadway, most suited Ax hands, and any pair as a reasonably standard jamming range. Maybe even a little tighter than that.

Thanks all for the welcome and the feedback on my thoughts.

Equity: Rexas could you explain to me why we need to 40% and not 60% to call.  I agree with the 1.5:1 ratio which I translated into 3:2 or 3/5 so 60%? If you could show me where I'm going wrong that would be much appreciated

The way I understand it, converting odds into fractions involves adding the two numbers together and putting this over the the right hand number. This works this way -

Say the pot is 100 and our opponent bets 50. This gives us immediate odds of 150:50, or 3 to 1. When converting this into a fraction, we have to consider the size of the pot if we call, and our fraction/percentage is the amount we have to call over the size of the pot if we call. So, in this case, the pot will be 200, and we have to call 50, so thats 1/4 or 25%.

what would you have done if you were the SB? This got me thinking as to whether I would have the nerve to pull the trigger like the SB and what range would I need to be doing this with to make it profitable?

Given what occurred what range of hands (assuming we don't hold the 88s) would we feel happy with calling the reshove by the SB if we were the hero? So lets say we were the hero  and had made the raise without looking at our cards and hoping to take down the blinds and the limper without contest and were happy to call with any two if one of the shorties did shove...what range are happy to call the SB with when we do look at our cards?

Firstly, if I'm aware of who shipitgood is (which I would be on sky) and I'm aware that he's raise folding 88 here, I'm jamming very wide indeed.

I wouldn't be raise calling much here, I would be jamming. If I was raising, it wouldn't be to this amount, it would be smaller. I certainly can't envisage raising like this with a hand worse than 8's.

As for overlimping, our hand is surely just too good. We have a pair, and a 20bb stack, and some dead money in the middle. The pros of overlimping to my mind would be to re-iso/call if the short stack jams, which as ive said I don't think he will jam any wider than he will call, hes got no fold equity. Also I guess we get to set mine if for some reason the BB checks and we have a chance of getting the lot from either the SB or the limper. Over limping is definitely better than raise folding. As for cons, we allow people to come along with pretty junky hands and outflop our hand, which is really good. We also get stuck in some tough spots post when, say, one overcard hits. We also fail to collect the dead money if the BB decides to fold to our jam, and if he doesnt, we get HU with him in fantastic shape against his range. Basically, we stand to win a reasonable amount of chips (especially in relation to our stack) by jamming, and potentially a better than full double up, most of the time. We also isolate the bounty from the short stack. By overlimping, we stand to very rarely win a very big pot, which we may win anyway by jamming, call a flop jam from the short stack and win the amount we would have won by jamming, or more than likely lose a small pot and throw away chips.