Thanks for replies, kinda cool hand to keep looking at this one
Do you ever r/f btn?
Yeh, sure. Pretty rarely though, I think hands to fold are hands such as
(I'd open this ofc OTB, plays pretty bad vsa 3b) maybe hands like
as well, low pairs, unsuited aces without any big cards with them and disjointed low runny down type hands are the ones to fold.
Overall are we only thinking villain is 3b AA and good KK and QQ?
will villain 3b double pair hands and medium wrap hands some funky double suited stuff?
Absolutely. These games people 3bet from the SB vs btn opens pretty wide, he has enough random 3's in his range, I've seen people show up with A963ds QQ84ds.
Villain doesn't have to have AAxx, I'm not too enamoured at 3b to 8 bigs playing 100+ eff from the SB myself. Am not a sicko though and play tournies mainly - is any AAxx an auto 3b in this spot at this level?
Agree, and no AA** is not an auto 3bet, in fact given what I said above about the hands people 3b in these games and the fact that bad and even mediocre AA** are not good hands to 3b in this spot I'd say that of his 3b range from the SB under 50% of it is AA**. This changes a bit ofc like you say given the history between the players, if I start to 4bet a lot of his 3bets from the SB vs my btn opens then he wants to start 3betting worse AA** combo's as the liklihood of beinf 4bet and being able to 5b AI increases. MY natural adjustment to his high 3b % from the SB would be to 4bet more aswell, and bad AA will play excellent vs my 4bet range ofc as hands like the one i have and AKK* are the first hands to go into that range.
But barreling twice...total airball feels unlikely - AAxx, KKxx or at least a similar rundown hand to Hero that's hit 2p or a draw on turn. Personally check river as can't see Villain calling with worse and think he'll trap/bluff catch with the same hand or better a fair amount.
When I call the flop it's very unlikely I'm floating. J*** JJ** 3*** J3** 33*** KK** QQ** are pretty likely the hands I have, and given i'll have a hand like this fairly often there is very little need to float. I'll raise 3*** fairly often, JJ** sometimes and obviously nothing as a bluff - the hands I'll usually pick to bluff here are hands that have a pair between 44 and 99 in them. I'd not raise J*** as a bluff here I'd call and go from there, bluff catch, showdown or consider bluffing depending on what happens.
The King is a good card for him to barrel in the sense that now pretty much all my J*** hands that aren't J3 or KJ have to fold, certainly a good spot to bet again with AA. I think given that I do have 3***, JJ** in my range he doesnt want to barrel 100%, so he'll pick the times he picks up some equity, a FD or a wrap I'd imagine. So the question, will he barrel a total airball, I think it's very unlikely. Is this a card he'll be (semi at least) bluffing ever? Yes. I think so.
I would probably 4 bet it pre and be looking to get it in. Always flatting the flop too, probably fold the turn. Doesnt he have to have AAxx by that point? Certainly checking back the river if i get to that point.*
*I have never played at anywhere approaching these stakes so am likely to be massively wrong!!!!
Defo not wrong! the good thing about 4betting pre-flop is that he is likely to make a call with a lot of hands that are dominated by us, worse suits, lower A*** and rundowns that need our cards. When he 5bets AI, we're not in good shape but by this point weve made our bed and will be lying in it!
I'd 4 bet pre and look to get it in... as played would chk back river, not sure what sort of hand he has that is worse and calls off.
AKxx might call because a flop float by hero could have picked up a bundle of draws on the turn.
I don't think that its great to be very polarised in these situations, which you would tend to do by checking back a lot hands. Betting a lot of thin value would surely allow you to bluff more, (might be wrong about this tho).
Interesting but when I bet the river it was as a bluff!
Things to think about I think are
1) How often to we have the best hand
2) How often is he "slow-playing" the river
3) How well do we rep KK JJ K3 J3
4) What does he do with A3** and AA**
5) What hands do i get to the river with the HAVE to bluff
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