UK General Election 2015

[MANTIS01]

Didn't Greece change their government this year? Yep I think they did, the left wing swept to power making all sorts of promises about austerity. Does anybody know how that's working out?

[kukushkin88]

Didn't Greece change their government this year? Yep I think they did, the left wing swept to power making all sorts of promises about austerity. Does anybody know how that's working out?

Your comments in this thread feel similar to when you used to tell us all how to play poker with a variety of bold pronouncements. The only thing that lends them any credibility is your confidence that you are right.

[TightEnd]

in the guardian!!



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/03/ed-milibands-carved-pledges-could-sink-like-a-stone

[TightEnd]

this would be enormous fun

" Alex Salmond has already stated he wouldn’t seek to displace Angus Robertson as Westminster leader, but I have heard rumours that he instead wants the position of SNP Chief Whip, if there is a Labour government. For Ed Miliband and Rosie Winterton this would be their worst nightmare come true. For the rest of us, it would be an incredible spectacle to watch."

http://iaindale.com/posts/2015/05/03/how-would-parliament-work-if-the-snp-get-50-seats

[RickBFA]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

A long read but a worthwhile one imo

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

if you read that, please read this:

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugmans-austerity-delusion/

and this

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-the-uk-and-borrowing/

cliffnotes. krugman comes from a perspective that is flawed (but has been seized upon as a holy grail by anyone for whom his argument suits their perspective)

Thanks for the links, more interesting stuff. Some interesting quotes from this articles:

Setting aside for now whether such a fixation would be “misleading”, economic discourse in Britain simply isn’t dominated by a fixation with government budget deficits. [...] But the Budget deficit hasn’t really been an important issue since 2013, aside from brief passing flurries of interest at the Autumn Statement or Budget when the government announces its latest forecasts.

All that the Tories have wanted to talk about is the defecit from what I've seen and read. That and how evil the SNP are.

Almost no-one in Britain claims or believes that high spending by the last Labour government caused the economic crisis of 2008.

Maybe not amongst academics or even those in government but you don't have to look much further than this thread to find otherwise. Among Tory and UKIP voters especially this is still what they are being fed through the right leaning sections of the media

No one in their right mind thinks Labour caused the crash.

My view and issue is that Labour ran significant deficits in economic boom times. We were certainly ill prepared for what happened. Brown appeared to think he was infallible.

Brown's statement of abolishing boom and bust was economically illiterate and frankly laughable.

It's difficult to trust any party that comes out with that type of nonsense.

[kukushkin88]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

A long read but a worthwhile one imo

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

if you read that, please read this:

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugmans-austerity-delusion/

and this

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-the-uk-and-borrowing/

cliffnotes. krugman comes from a perspective that is flawed (but has been seized upon as a holy grail by anyone for whom his argument suits their perspective)

Great articles Tighty, I disagree with them but they are interesting.

We are talking about a Nobel Prize winner being contradicted by people who cut their teeth at the Conservative Party research Department. Please google all three of them.

It´s probably exposed the shortcoming´s in democracy more than any other single event (in Britain) that people think austerity is a good idea because they liken a country´s economy to their own bank account.

Cliffnotes: Anybody who thinks austerity is a good idea and has helped the (incredibly slow and limited) recovery doesn´t understand.

[doubleup]

Didn't Greece change their government this year? Yep I think they did, the left wing swept to power making all sorts of promises about austerity. Does anybody know how that's working out?

Your comments in this thread feel similar to when you used to tell us all how to play poker with a variety of bold pronouncements. The only thing that lends them any credibility is your confidence that you are right.

And the greatest irony being if Greece could print money like Britain they wouldn't actually be in their present difficulties.

[david3103]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

Because the austerity measures didn't cause economic growth, but when they were eased a bit the economy grew most.

I used to think you were a thinker.

[mulhuzz]

serious question: who thinks that a Greece style crisis is/was possible for the UK?

[TightEnd]

serious question: who thinks that a Greece style crisis is/was possible for the UK?

unlikely but possible

remember the government had to step in as lender of last resort/provider of liquidity for the banking system (not the government's fault, though it did de-regulate the financial services industry previously that was a global strategy led by the Fed) in the UK.

without that, and without a check on spending, the trough would have been deeper and the recovery (which is weak as it is) taken longer

as it is for all the talk of austerity, all they have done is checked debt levels rather than reduced them substantially

[TightEnd]

what would GE2015 look like under PR? http://buff.ly/1brcp9A  

[TightEnd]

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-do-polls-and-predictions-now-suggest-david-cameron-can-win/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Twenty Predictions For Election Night

http://iaindale.com/posts/2015/05/04/twenty-predictions-for-election-night

1. Just as in 2010 there will be queues outside polling stations at 10pm and people won’t be allowed to vote. Politicians will declare their outrage and say that something must be done to prevent it happening again. Just like 2010.

2. There will be reports of voter intimidation in Tower Hamlets. It wouldn’t be an election otherwise.

3. The Exit Pollsters will be shitting themselves.

4. The Press Association’s prediction of count declaration times will bear little resemblance to reality.

5. Broadcasters will wish they hadn’t booked any politicians as guests as they will just trot out the usual pre-prepared soundbites and refuse to engage in coalition speculation.

6. Jeremy Paxman and David Mitchell won’t hit it off. At all.

7. As election night progresses, a few red lines start shattering.

8. Three or four senior Labour politicians start muttering nice things under their breath about the SNP as the night progresses. Andy Burnham will be one of them.

9. Boris Johnson remains silent until the lie of the land becomes clear, but several of his supporters begin subtly advancing his case on the media as breakfast approaches.

10. In my seat by seat predictions I’ve predicted the Conservatives will get 276 seats. My gut feeling is that is on the low side, but 290 is their maximum reach.

11. For Labour, I’ve predicted 267. I think 275 is their maximum.

12. I’ve predicted the LibDems will get 23 seats. If they get over 30 they will be euphoric. Sort of.

13. I’ve predicted Nigel Farage will win his seat and be one of 5 UKIP MEPs. If he doesn’t win, he will resign the UKIP leadership either in his count concession or a few hours later. I predict one of UKIP’s winners will be a complete surprise.

14. The journalist who gets any words out of David Miliband during the night will deserve an award of some kind.

15. The two biggest name casualties will be both be Alexanders – Danny and Wee Dougie.

16. Andrew Neil will be the TV star of election night.

17. The BBC will come to regret their new live position opposite the House of Commons as their daytime coverage is ruined by a man shouting “All Politicians Are Liars”.

18. Len McCluskie, Paul Kenny and other trade union leaders take up semi-permanent residence on College Green opposite Parliament to dole out some “helpful” advice to Ed Miliband.

19. Seconds out, Round Two for Alastair Campbell and Adam Boulton.

20. The broadcaster tents and studios on College Green will still be there two weeks later.

[mulhuzz]

serious question: who thinks that a Greece style crisis is/was possible for the UK?

unlikely but possible

remember the government had to step in as lender of last resort/provider of liquidity for the banking system (not the government's fault, though it did de-regulate the financial services industry previously that was a global strategy led by the Fed) in the UK.

without that, and without a check on spending, the trough would have been deeper and the recovery (which is weak as it is) taken longer

as it is for all the talk of austerity, all they have done is checked debt levels rather than reduced them substantially

I think basically when you're lending in your own currency it's impossible tbh (well, very very long odds against..). Obviously the govt has a role as lender of last resort - it's the safety net which keeps banking system working - - confidence in banking system etc etc.

I'd go further and say by their own benchmarks they've done basically nothing to improve debt levels. Created more debt than all labour governments ever combined (this govt, I mean). I think there's a strongly arguable case to say that the (agreed, limited and slow) recovery has occurred in spite of, and not because of, this government. That might be a controversial viewpoint though, I admit.

fwiw, even being born and bread in the North East, I'm about as far from a 'labour man' as it's possible to be whilst still believing in a welfare system

[TightEnd]

serious question: who thinks that a Greece style crisis is/was possible for the UK?

unlikely but possible

remember the government had to step in as lender of last resort/provider of liquidity for the banking system (not the government's fault, though it did de-regulate the financial services industry previously that was a global strategy led by the Fed) in the UK.

without that, and without a check on spending, the trough would have been deeper and the recovery (which is weak as it is) taken longer

as it is for all the talk of austerity, all they have done is checked debt levels rather than reduced them substantially

I think basically when you're lending in your own currency it's impossible tbh (well, very very long odds against..). Obviously the govt has a role as lender of last resort - it's the safety net which keeps banking system working - - confidence in banking system etc etc.

I'd go further and say by their own benchmarks they've done basically nothing to improve debt levels. Created more debt than all labour governments ever combined (this govt, I mean). I think there's a strongly arguable case to say that the (agreed, limited and slow) recovery has occurred in spite of, and not because of, this government. That might be a controversial viewpoint though, I admit.

fwiw, even being born and bread in the North East, I'm about as far from a 'labour man' as it's possible to be whilst still believing in a welfare system

but you are in a global era of no inflation/deflation

look at japan, which went deflationary about 5 years before the banking crash..not many japanese feel any recovery at all

there's a bigger picture.

i'm not making a pro-tory point here...the aspect of the campagin that had top line estimates of spending cuts without being able to spell out in detail what they were was extremely poor, more a point that if the spending as a % of GDP had continued to rise unchecked the risks to the economy would be greater than they are now

as to why debt levels haven't fallen, a) quite tricky to do so when capital projects are half way through, long term plans are in progress etc. you can't turn off the taps that quickly b) politically very difficult to do it in a coalition

reason b) is why i would be staggered if the next government, if it is led by cameron gets anywhere close to the cuts it is suggesting. most of it relies on lower tax avoidance.