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Poker Hand Analysis
Thoughts?
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Topic: Thoughts? (Read 4491 times)
shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Thoughts?
«
on:
September 24, 2014, 12:04:55 AM »
It's at 20nl. We have £27 villain has £20.
In the SB with
Villian in the cut off raises to 70p, we 3 bet to £2.20, and he 4 bet jams lol. And we call.
It was a pretty quick call too.
He is a regular, he's not a nit like most regs at the level, and seldom folds to a 3 bet. We are just 3 betting for pure value.
He calls (against me) with aces a whole lot to 3 bets. I doubt he jams KK (ever) or QQ here - he could be doing it with JJ, but reckon it's mostly geared towards AK, or a lower pocket pair if he's spewing.
«
Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 12:07:19 AM by shipitgood
»
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Honeybadger
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #1 on:
September 24, 2014, 12:19:43 AM »
If you have those reads, sounds like you've already answered your own question.
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Rexas
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #2 on:
September 24, 2014, 12:23:11 AM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on September 24, 2014, 12:19:43 AM
If you have those reads, sounds like you've already answered your own question.
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #3 on:
September 24, 2014, 12:25:04 AM »
3+ 5% of the pot* £1.80 (max rake)
£40-£1.80= £38.20
I'm in for £2.20 so £17.80 to call, to win £38.20.
I really don't like racing when you factor in rake it's just a losing play IMO (at this low level), but once I've 3 bet i reckon i'm committed against this player.
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Rexas
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #4 on:
September 24, 2014, 12:27:07 AM »
Quote from: Rexas on September 24, 2014, 12:23:11 AM
Quote from: Honeybadger on September 24, 2014, 12:19:43 AM
If you have those reads, sounds like you've already answered your own question.
Obvs bad in a vacuum but apparently we're not in one of those
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #5 on:
September 24, 2014, 12:46:29 AM »
Defo bad in a vaccum calling here with 10 10, and really exploitative as in he can just jam QQ plus here profitably to my 3 bet, cutoff versus SB.
The jam here if we see the cards face up and it's a race, it's just a tough spot surely it's losing overall for both players.
Probably a bit of a moot point as these scenarios don't crop up that often, just a bit of an annoying spot really.
It wouldn't be as bad if the rake wasn't as a big a % of the pot.
«
Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 01:10:40 AM by shipitgood
»
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pleno1
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #6 on:
September 24, 2014, 05:33:48 AM »
very easy call yeh
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
Lambert180
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #7 on:
September 24, 2014, 06:19:38 PM »
Well you've given a range for him doing it with and if your range is right then obv it's a snap call. Seems very specific though... like if he jams 99, why is he jamming 99? Surely not as a bluff to expect you to fold anything TT+, is it cos he just wants you to fold lots of 2 overs hands cos he's scared of playing 99 postflop in a 3b pot? Does he think/do you call with 2 overs ever? If so why can he never have QQ?
What's the worst hand you'd call off with here? Cos it sounds like TT is much the same as 99/88/77 given the reads. Do you call w/ AK?
Imo, trying to work rake into your decision making is just a waste of time/silly. You're never gonna know it's a flip before you've invested any chips and by the time you have, it'll be the better option to flip. Even if you could guarantee that calling was exactly neutral EV, that's still better than the -11BB of folding now that you've 3bet. Plus TT v AK isn't exactly 50/50 anyway.
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shipitgood
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #8 on:
September 24, 2014, 10:51:23 PM »
Yeah it is quite specific!
He's mostly doing this with AK - seen this a few times. I've seen him do it with 99 too one time, although he was spewing then. Someone else said he made a similar move with 66 once too.
I've never seen him make the massive over bet jam with a better pair than 10s - he's always calling or making a normal 4 bet.
99 prob a call. AK defo a call. 88 and 77 is a bit more ropey, despite the fact we are putting him on one hand here (most of the time)
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Rexas
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #9 on:
September 24, 2014, 11:50:03 PM »
Quote from: shipitgood on September 24, 2014, 10:51:23 PM
Yeah it is quite specific!
He's mostly doing this with AK - seen this a few times. I've seen him do it with 99 too one time, although he was spewing then. Someone else said he made a similar move with 66 once too.
I've never seen him make the massive over bet jam with a better pair than 10s - he's always calling or making a normal 4 bet.
99 prob a call.
AK defo a call
. 88 and 77 is a bit more ropey, despite the fact we are putting him on one hand here (most of the time)
Why?
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
Hero Member
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #10 on:
September 25, 2014, 12:45:23 AM »
He never has Aces or Kings in that spot
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Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #11 on:
September 25, 2014, 12:58:10 AM »
If his range is AK, and 10s- exclusively, which you seem to be telling us it is, then why would we call with AK?
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #12 on:
September 25, 2014, 01:28:15 AM »
That's just my reads, based on which we can't fold AK once we've 3 bet or we are just burning money.
Of course if he makes a normal 4 bet, its a diff story and the games on, we have all options open to us.
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Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #13 on:
September 25, 2014, 01:58:20 AM »
We're not actually burning much money. If you guys are deeper vs this range AK is probs a fold, you'll lose more than the 2.20 you put in by calling. As it is we only win like 6bbs more by calling than folding with AK. If the effective stack is yours, making the pot 54.20 when you call, by calling you win less than 1bb more (i.e. lose 1bb less) than if you fold. Food for thought.
Also, I don't know how much advice we can give you on a spot where you seem to have some pretty insane reads on your opponent which dictate your decision in a very player dependent situation. This post seems almost like a diary brag about a sick call rather than a hand we can dissect :p
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #14 on:
September 25, 2014, 02:29:04 AM »
For sure if we are 200 bb deep, i'm never calling. In the above I meant like 100bb deep.
Never actually seen that before, a 4 bet jam all (20x the pot) in super deep, maybe 1 day:)
I posted really to say what are you meant to do here 100 bb deep, it's just an annoying spot when he jams so massive.
Prob a bit of a silly post, in as much as it hardly ever happens and is very specific to this one player.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is another hand; nothing special, but quite interesting on the turn:
We have
UTG + 1 (£38.68) The BB Has (£35.65)
UTG 3xes to 60p, we call, SB and BB Call (Pot £2.40) Quite happy with the call preflop.
Flop,
SB Checks, BB donks for £1.20, UTG folds, we just call, and the SB folds.
2 Players to the turn, pot is £4.80
I decided just to call the bet instead of raising.
Turn
, Villian Checks.
Thoughts on checking versus betting this turn after we have only called the flop?
In the hand I bet £3.60 - (slightly to big?? if indeed we are going 2 bet).
Really pukey spot, villian re-raises by £6. It's £6 into £18, so not quite getting the right price. He has just over £24 behind.
«
Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 02:43:32 AM by shipitgood
»
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