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Poker Hand Analysis
Thoughts?
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Topic: Thoughts? (Read 4482 times)
Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #15 on:
September 25, 2014, 02:35:55 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on September 25, 2014, 02:29:04 AM
For sure if we are 200 bb deep, i'm never calling. In the above I meant like 100bb deep.
Never actually seen that before, a 4 bet jam all (20x the pot) in super deep, maybe 1 day:)
I posted really to say what are you meant to do here 100 bb deep, it's just an annoying spot when he jams so massive.
Prob a bit of a silly post, in as much as it hardly ever happens and is very specific to this one player.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is another hand; nothing special, but quite interesting on the turn:
We have
UTG + 1 (£38.68) The BB Has (£35.65)
UTG 3xes to 60p, we call, SB and BB Call (Pot £2.40) Quite happy with the call preflop.
Flop,
SB Checks, BB donks for £1.20, UTG folds, we just call, and the SB folds.
2 Players to the turn, pot is £4.80
I decided just to call the bet instead of raising.
Turn
, Villian Checks.
Thoughts on checking versus betting this turn after we have only called the flop?
In the hand I bet £3.60 - (slightly to big?? if were betting).
Really pukey spot, he min raises us. Don't quite have the odds to calls, but I called.
First of all, we do have the odds to call, but if you think you don't, why did you?
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #16 on:
September 25, 2014, 02:40:17 AM »
I'm starting to sound a little standoffish without meaning to :p Basically all I'm trying to do is get you to think about why you're doing things a little more. "Odds" is a blanket term that is often used incorrectly, but if we don't think we're ahead, and we don't think we're getting the right price to call, then why are we?
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #17 on:
September 25, 2014, 02:47:19 AM »
Not at all Rexas, sorry my fault, made a mistake in the last post.
It wasn't a min raise.
Villian re-raised by £6. It's £6 into £18. He has just over £24 behind.
I called for implied odds.
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Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #18 on:
September 25, 2014, 04:02:26 AM »
We're getting roughly three to one on a call, which translates to 25%. So, we need 25% equity to call immediately. We have 10 clean outs to the nuts (7 spades, other 3 tens), plus 3 outs to top pair which may or may not be good, and 2 outs to other spades which pair the board but are still likely to be ok for us. Either way, we're a little better than 20% to make the nuts on the river, so we're not far from the immediate odds needed to call anyway. When you factor in the fact that the other two spade outs are going to be live a reasonable amount of the time, and occasionally our A outs might be good too, we don't really need any implied odds to make the call immediately fine.
When people talk about implied odds, they often say things like "I called for implied odds" without being entirely sure what they mean. What implied odds basically are is the amount we think we can win on the river if we make our hand, so we can add the amount we think we will make on the river if we make our hand to the pot on the turn, so we're effectively calling the same amount to win even more. This, of course, is pretty hard to predict mathematically because it requires us knowing if the villain will bet or call if we do, and how much either way, but we can work out how much we need to make and decide how likely it is that we make that amount. For example, in this situation, assuming we HAVE to make the nuts to win the hand, we need to get at least £6 out of him on the river when we do get there to make our turn call break even. If we think we get more than that on average, then it just adds to the profitability of the call.
So, we're close to the immediate odds to call and we have decent implied odds (since I doubt he's going to check raise and then just fold the river all that often, especially if its a 10). Calling seems fine, then, ott. Calling is also probably fine pre, definitely fine on the flop, and betting is again definitely good on the turn. Wp.
«
Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 04:07:48 AM by Rexas
»
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #19 on:
September 25, 2014, 10:42:43 AM »
I know what implied odds are bud;)
We are getting about 3/1 on a call, and need about 4/1 to call.
After my play on the flop (just calling) don't know if there is much point betting the turn.
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shipitgood
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #20 on:
September 25, 2014, 12:02:17 PM »
I got lucky otr, hit flush and villain jams. Just didn't like calling here knowing we had 2 fold if we bricked. Our ace outs are dead. You are right rexas we just about have the odds 2 call.
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PaintingByNumbers
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #21 on:
September 25, 2014, 12:58:18 PM »
Quote from: shipitgood on September 25, 2014, 10:42:43 AM
I know what implied odds are bud;)
We are getting about 3/1 on a call, and need about 4/1 to call.
After my play on the flop (just calling)
don't know if there is much point betting the turn.
Well, it depends on what you think he has (his range)?
He could have a weak pair that was donking the Flop to fold out overcards, is now scared and will fold by the River at least?
He could have a weaker draw (spades, 46, A4, A2; and less likely, hearts or JT), from which you can extract value.
But, obviously, if you think he is likely to be trapping you then just Check.
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pleno1
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Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #22 on:
September 25, 2014, 01:42:20 PM »
Too many people on bode have john black syndrome right now. A lot of people giving very good advice bit lots of people don't seem to want to listen.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
verndog158
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omgpoker
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #23 on:
September 25, 2014, 01:46:39 PM »
Quote from: PaintingByNumbers on September 25, 2014, 12:58:18 PM
Quote from: shipitgood on September 25, 2014, 10:42:43 AM
I know what implied odds are bud;)
We are getting about 3/1 on a call, and need about 4/1 to call.
After my play on the flop (just calling)
don't know if there is much point betting the turn.
Well, it depends on what you think he has (his range)?
He could have a weak pair that was donking the Flop to fold out overcards, is now scared and will fold by the River at least?
He could have a weaker draw (spades, 46, A4, A2; and less likely, hearts or JT), from which you can extract value.
But, obviously, if you think he is likely to be trapping you then just Check.
Even if he does raise, do we ever hate getting it in? Play mostly comps, so no doubt different to cash, so forgive me having no idea haha
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Quote from: MassiveFish on September 25, 2014, 05:15:30 PM
ignore verndog he's a fool
'he had a deep run in EPT Barnsley'
PaintingByNumbers
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Posts: 68
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #24 on:
September 25, 2014, 03:14:48 PM »
Quote from: verndog158 on September 25, 2014, 01:46:39 PM
Even if he does raise, do we ever hate getting it in? Play mostly comps, so no doubt different to cash, so forgive me having no idea haha
Think he'd need to be folding lots of made hands and/or calling with worse draws, which seems unlikely, to want to raise.
Definitely not folding though. He'd have had to have seen our cards for us to want to Fold.
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shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #25 on:
September 25, 2014, 06:36:15 PM »
Well, it depends on what you think he has (his range)?
He could have a weak pair that was donking the Flop to fold out overcards, is now scared and will fold by the River at least?
He could have a weaker draw (spades, 46, A4, A2; and less likely, hearts or JT), from which you can extract value.
But, obviously, if you think he is likely to be trapping you then just Check.
[/quote]
When he check raised the turn, i'm putting him on atleast 2 pair, if not a set.
If he has a draw after checking the turn, most times he'd just call.
It's quite unusual at 20nl for players to check raise strong hands when they have the betting lead as opposed to just betting themselves for value.
Maybe he thought I was quite aggro and betting most times when checked to.
I quite like his line to try and get max value from his hand.
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shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #26 on:
September 25, 2014, 07:13:11 PM »
Vern if I got it on OTT, don't think I could watch there after lol
Love getting it in in mtt's in spots like this tho if we have FE, albeit a lot shallower stacks
---------------------------------------
In the other thread, the queens thread, people were speaking about GTO
In a simple sense, using my flush draw hand as an example.
Does it mean sometimes we will be raising our flush draw here on the flop and other times just calling?
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Rexas
Hero Member
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Posts: 1963
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #27 on:
September 25, 2014, 08:29:17 PM »
Quote from: shipitgood on September 25, 2014, 07:13:11 PM
In the other thread, the queens thread, people were speaking about GTO
In a simple sense, using my flush draw hand as an example.
Does it mean sometimes we will be raising our flush draw here on the flop and other times just calling?
Not really, no. GTO isn't the same as balance.
GT deals with how we can make decisions to reduce our opponents profit in a complete vacuum to 0 i.e. how often we should take an action in order to make our opponent indifferent to his action. GTO assumes that our opponent is playing perfectly, and attempts to come up with a way to counter his action to make us both completely breakeven. The most common example of this in poker terms are the Nash push/fold charts that you've probably seen before. Assuming you are shoving the correct range, and calling with the correct range, you are guaranteed to be at least breakeven. Our opponents range is, as such, irrelevant if we are taking a purely gto approach to the game.
Balance is a buzz word that came into common use a few years ago as a way of saying "I should be able to be bluffing in most situations". It was also a fantastic concept, because the amount of completely crazy shit I see people do on a daily basis "because balance" is wonderful
«
Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 08:31:21 PM by Rexas
»
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
TL900
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2418
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #28 on:
September 25, 2014, 08:52:15 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on September 25, 2014, 01:42:20 PM
Too many people on bode have john black syndrome right now. A lot of people giving very good advice bit lots of people don't seem to want to listen.
JB <3
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
PaintingByNumbers
Jr. Member
Offline
Posts: 68
Re: Thoughts?
«
Reply #29 on:
September 25, 2014, 09:08:41 PM »
Quote from: shipitgood on September 25, 2014, 06:36:15 PM
When he check raised the turn, i'm putting him on atleast 2 pair, if not a set.
If he has a draw after checking the turn, most times he'd just call.
It's quite unusual at 20nl for players to check raise strong hands when they have the betting lead as opposed to just betting themselves for value.
Maybe he thought I was quite aggro and betting most times when checked to.
I quite like his line to try and get max value from his hand.
I was talking about your opinion of his range when he checked the Turn, as you were asking whether there was any point betting the Turn, not what you think he has when he raises your bet on the Turn.
Your analysis above is fine once he does Ch/R though.
Don't worry about GTO, just try to play each hand well.
Which I think you have, in both cases, and won plenty of bb's (don't know the result of the first one though).
Making your decision to post them both and argue (badly) against your own lines utterly bizarre!
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