Football betting thread

[RickBFA]

I thought it would be fun to have a thread that focussed on football betting. I can't see another thread on this topic.

I'll try to post my views on bets I think are value.

I hope there will be some contributions and ideas shared.

In the midweek games I've had three singles as follows :

Ipswich 27/10 at Wednesday. I think 27/10 is value. Ipswich in form, from people who have seen them recently I understand they are a well organised and effective unit. Wednesday have had a great start to the season, but one or two cracks are showing in the squad depth. Lees missing at centre half is a big loss, and whilst Wednesday have ground out results they are scoring very few goals.

Notts County 13/8 at Crewe. Crewe are really struggling and I think Notts County are under estimated. They have played teams like Peterborough, Orient and Chesterfield recently and not lost. I would make them shorter than 13/8.

Fulham evens against Bolton. Fulham have had an awful start, but Kit Symons seems to be able to get more out of the players than the former manager, their confidence will be much improved after an away win at Birmingham, whilst Bolton are a team that I feel are in a downward spiral that is hard to break. Whilst you could argue Fulham are in a similar mess, I think they will have too much for Bolton - Bolton have scored one goal away from home in league games all season.

I hope others will contribute and give constructive criticism too.

[tikay]

Great idea Rick, thank you.

[DungBeetle]

I think Notts Co are under rated by the bookies in nearly every game they play - the only problem is they pick up an awful lot of draws.

Don't think Fulham can be trusted yet at evens - even against Bolton!

[exstream]

Thought chelsea 1.84 looked good tonight

[RickBFA]

Nice to get 2 out of 3 winners.

Both Notts County and Fulham won comfortably. Went to the Wednesday v Ipswich game and I was surprised at how poor Ipswich were.

Hopefully the weekend football will give us some more bets.

[RickBFA]

Started to add a few bets for this Saturday.

Bury v Tranmere

Tranmere scored once in last 4 games and this is a quote from their manager Rob Edwards who is clearly under pressure - "Our confidence is pretty wafer thin at the moment, when we go one goal down you can see that players are getting anxious and anxiety is going throughout the side and all of us."

Not the type of mindset and confidence level to go into an away game at Bury, who are flying.

I'm on Bury -1 goal at 23/10.

Scunthorpe v Doncaster

Scunthorpe are plagued with their worst injury crisis in recent history, at least 7 first team players out and Wilcox said that they were having to blood young players who "ran out of steam" in their last game.

Doncaster are hardly setting the world on fire but should have enough to beat a Scunthorpe second team.

So I've backed Donny at 17/10.

Bolton v Bournemouth

We all know Bolton are poor and they feel like a gift that will keep giving right now.

Whilst Bournemouth lost 2-0 at Derby in their last game (no disgrace there, Derby are a very good side), they have beaten Wigan and Cardiff 3-0 and 2-0 before that.

I think Bournemouth -1 goal at 3/1 is value, so I'm on that.

Mansfield v Accrington

Coleman is back at Accrington and has them playing well, he's got 2 young players in on loan and they are clearly full of confidence.

I've had Accrington DNB at 7/4.

Might post others before Saturdays games.

[TightEnd]

like a lot of those

Bolton will be a team to follow after their manager change, which must be imminent, assuming a decent appointment

Plenty of good players currently not performing

[DungBeetle]

I'm not sure Tighty.  Bolton were poor at the end of last season, and were dreadful when they played Watford.  I know they still have some old premier league players who should be good, but it just seems a team that needs dismantling which they can't with their debt.  I fear for them this season.

Of the above bets the one I like is the Accrington one.  Really playing with a spring in the step at the moment.

[horseplayer]

Bolton have a hell of a lot of players with a fairly good reputation built on a few seasons or more ago

All on massive wages, Freedman has to go but i doubt they will suddenly change into a good side

[TightEnd]

that's fair enough, i know the debt situation doesn't leave a lot of flexibility

I know from the stories i heard about Beckford, Danns and Matt Mills at my club (all of whom Pearson wanted rid of asap and paid significant portions of their wages while their existing contracts were in place to get them to play elsewhere) that team spirit might be a problem at Bolton

in terms of talent in the squad though, its there

[RickBFA]

Couple more for Saturday.

Cheltenham v AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon are 14/5. Cheltenham have scored one goal in five games, in the same period Wimbledon have scored nine times.

I think Wimbledon are inconsistent but with Tubbs up front they have a proved goal scorer.

I had them shorter than 14/5 so I've back them.

Oxford v Newport County

Newport have started to put a run of results together after a slow start to season. They have only lost once in last 5 games to Swindon.

I know Tighty tipped them to do well this season and they seem to be adjusting whereas Oxford have been continuing to struggle.

I'm on them at 9/4.

I think that's me done, six bets in total, need two winners for a profit at these prices.

[DungBeetle]

Anybody think Fulham are a tad overpriced at Middlesboro?  Fulham playing for the caretaker boss and won 3 in a row in all competitions.  Boro well respected but have lost 2 at home already and held by Blackpool in midweek so not exactly bulletproof.  3/4 seems short on the hosts!

[Man Fun]

First post, go easy on me!! Rick BFA introduced me to the forum. Is anyone finding betting this weekend tough? I am struggling to find VALUE - The biggest lesson TFT has taught me. I find the Bolton fixture intriguing. According to Muamba, players were frozen out of by Freedman. I have had experience of managerial changes when players wanted to die for a manager or alternatively when we packed his wash bag!! i agree with tight end that there is talent in Boltons squad. Nevertheless players confidence is low and players who have been left out in the Freedman regime will not be match fit. I think 2/3 changes will be made to the starting 11 and possibly 3/4 to the matchday squad. A different atmosphere and voice in the changing rooms will make a difference. I'm recommending bolton DNB 31/20. I just think Boltons lack of confidence and match fitness may prove to much. I will certainly be backing them away to BIrmingham on the 18th October.

[TightEnd]

First post, go easy on me!! Rick BFA introduced me to the forum. Is anyone finding betting this weekend tough? I am struggling to find VALUE - The biggest lesson TFT has taught me. I find the Bolton fixture intriguing. According to Muamba, players were frozen out of by Freedman. I have had experience of managerial changes when players wanted to die for a manager or alternatively when we packed his wash bag!! i agree with tight end that there is talent in Boltons squad. Nevertheless players confidence is low and players who have been left out in the Freedman regime will not be match fit. I think 2/3 changes will be made to the starting 11 and possibly 3/4 to the matchday squad. A different atmosphere and voice in the changing rooms will make a difference. I'm recommending bolton DNB 31/20. I just think Boltons lack of confidence and match fitness may prove to much. I will certainly be backing them away to BIrmingham on the 18th October.

welcome to the forum Mr Fun.

[exstream]

First post, go easy on me!! Rick BFA introduced me to the forum. Is anyone finding betting this weekend tough? I am struggling to find VALUE - The biggest lesson TFT has taught me. I find the Bolton fixture intriguing. According to Muamba, players were frozen out of by Freedman. I have had experience of managerial changes when players wanted to die for a manager or alternatively when we packed his wash bag!! i agree with tight end that there is talent in Boltons squad. Nevertheless players confidence is low and players who have been left out in the Freedman regime will not be match fit. I think 2/3 changes will be made to the starting 11 and possibly 3/4 to the matchday squad. A different atmosphere and voice in the changing rooms will make a difference. I'm recommending bolton DNB 31/20. I just think Boltons lack of confidence and match fitness may prove to much. I will certainly be backing them away to BIrmingham on the 18th October.

Stick it up on tips for tikay thread as your first tip