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Author Topic: Uber aggro Jake Cody play EPT London.  (Read 3200 times)
Sulphur man
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« on: October 22, 2014, 11:03:06 PM »

http://www.pokertube.com/videos/ept11-london-main-event-final-table-live--part-5

Spent a good twenty minutes watching this hand (39mins in) with YOYO today as it really interested
both of us. Haxton chips in with some useful insights in the commentary too.

Using Equilab we finally decided on a range for Macphee shoving V's Cody's Button open,
and decided/settled on 13.88% 55+, A5s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo. Which gave us 40% V's this range
and this as Haxton also points out would be the minimum amount needed to call. "Sort of close but I don't think Cody can call here"

So the odds are close as Cody is getting 1.5-1 although Macphee had not been that out of line so far and with the stacksize it seems
unlikely he is at this point add into this the ICM considerations.

Now I pointed out that Cody appears to read him as not so strong when he smiles and says "Very serious"
so maybe he thought he could discount the better hands from his range. Ran this and took out AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKS, AKo, AQS.
This only changed our percentage to about 43% v's that range where we took out these hands after considering that he did not look
as comfortable as he would with any of these hands.

Would love to here peoples views on this and any floors in the thinking here.

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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2014, 08:59:35 PM »

ICM wise it's a terrible call. On a pure chip EV it's profitable though.

The 3b jam range you've given is really tight though. If you're going to include A8o then go ahead and include another 10% of hands that are better to have in this scenario which means all suited broadways, suited connectors and half of the suited kings and queens.

The best thing to do is limp the button. If I'm playing tons of tables then I might open without thinking since it's a pretty good hand innit.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2014, 09:13:41 PM »

2guys who really, really want to win that tournament.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2014, 09:15:01 PM »

The best thing to do is limp the button. If I'm playing tons of tables then I might open without thinking since it's a pretty good hand innit.

Surely not limping on a big FT when this Irish guy in the BB is not going to defend all that much vs Jake.
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pleno1
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2014, 09:57:09 PM »

isn't that an ok reason to limp?

how much did they both have? could we jam?
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neverbluff67
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2014, 10:06:06 PM »

Hey, Jake here...

you were right i did read him as weak and weighted towards the weaker end of his reshove range, that said i still think its very close.  I ran the numbers afterwards myself out of interest and ICM does dictate a fold and chipEV a call.  Not too surprising and pretty much why i tanked so long.  Now I'm not saying i was going into the FT planning to play super high variance but winning the tournament and getting 1st place is worth a hell of a lot to me, definitely more than 1st place money, and this gives me the chance to knock out arguably the strongest player and now be 4 handed with 5m+ and a very good chance to win combined with the fact i didn't feel like he was very strong made me lean towards call.  Still a little unsure about it and i know a lot of people will snap say its horrif but those are my thoughts behind it.
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2014, 10:26:03 PM »

Hey, Jake here...

you were right i did read him as weak and weighted towards the weaker end of his reshove range, that said i still think its very close.  I ran the numbers afterwards myself out of interest and ICM does dictate a fold and chipEV a call.  Not too surprising and pretty much why i tanked so long.  Now I'm not saying i was going into the FT planning to play super high variance but winning the tournament and getting 1st place is worth a hell of a lot to me, definitely more than 1st place money, and this gives me the chance to knock out arguably the strongest player and now be 4 handed with 5m+ and a very good chance to win combined with the fact i didn't feel like he was very strong made me lean towards call.  Still a little unsure about it and i know a lot of people will snap say its horrif but those are my thoughts behind it.


FUCK ICM

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neverbluff67
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2014, 10:29:57 PM »

lol it was more like   
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2014, 10:39:00 PM »

might be wrong but I don't think jake meant winning the tournament was worth a hell of a lot to him purely from a sentimental point of view - gotta be worth a huge chunk in terms of stars renewing his deal if he wins.
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2014, 10:55:25 PM »


Using Equilab we finally decided on a range for Macphee shoving V's Cody's Button open,
and decided/settled on 13.88% 55+, A5s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo.

He's shoving a lot more than that.
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Sulphur man
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2014, 11:41:06 PM »

Out of interest Jake what would you say his assumed range is here?.
Went a little wider myself originally although I didn't watch the whole
final. Julian did and assured me he had not been getting to out
of line up to this point so for his tournament life the range would be tighter.

Pleno Jake had like 40bbs and Kevin jammed 20bbs.
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2014, 11:46:04 PM »


Using Equilab we finally decided on a range for Macphee shoving V's Cody's Button open,
and decided/settled on 13.88% 55+, A5s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo.

He's shoving a lot more than that.


Out of interest Jake what would you say his assumed range is here?.
Went a little wider myself originally although I didn't watch the whole
final. Julian did and assured me he had not been getting to out
of line up to this point so for his tournament life the range would be tighter.

Pleno Jake had like 40bbs and Kevin jammed 20bbs.


if it was actually 20 it wont be that much wider
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pleno1
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2014, 11:46:44 PM »

the aj 4bet fold from kevin was way more controversial than this call though imo.
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 04:57:53 AM »

as someone who has played with kevin in these spots more than possibly anyone on the forum id say he would be a tighter jammer than a lot of online regs in this spot and more icm conscious than a lot of regs

nd decided/settled on 13.88% 55+, A5s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo. Which gave us 40% V's this range


^^^ this range is a little too tight though.  the reason that this hand is so hard to evaluate is the intangible (no icm doesn't cover this) benefit jake has when he wins the pot. I think its a punt and i would rather call off against someone a lil more spewy than kevin. But the way the tournament was going dynamic wise was the cl was just building chips and the other guys seemed to all become very conscious of the need to ladder and jake decided to call the hand to kind of change the gameflow that the tournament was heading in.
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action man
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 04:59:40 AM »

also i don't know who devised the title of the thread but not very fitting lol
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