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Author Topic: Assume this is an easy fold??  (Read 2513 times)
Rod
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« on: January 03, 2015, 12:29:50 PM »

Bit of background, I have recently found myself struggling with making the right folds in certain spots in cash games. This is one such situation where I was unsure if folding is the correct play to make, seems like it should be easy enough.

No real info on the player as I have no info on him in my tracker. Preflop all seemed fairly standard and on the dry flop a bet seemed the correct play I can certainly get called by lot's of hands I beat at this point. When he calls I think he has something, possibly a pair, maybe even a worse king. The turn puts a flush draw out but other than that does not really change anything. When he checks to me I bet $1.85 which might be a bit small, Probably should have been $2.50 to setup the river shove, when he just calls though I still think I am ahead as his line is not really very strong. I am still putting him on a pair or a worse king. A set seems less likely now as it should have raised by now. The river makes me trip kings which actually does not really improve my hand much but does make it less likely he has a king. Then he bets nearly the pot. Is this just one of those spots where you don't know how you are beat but you just are?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2634716
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $12.59
SB: $22.16
BB: $7.10
UTG: $10.05
MP: $25.89
CO: $16.74

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K :club: A :diamond:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) K :diamond: 4 :heart: 9 :spade: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

Turn: ($3.95) 7 :heart: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.85, CO calls $1.85

River: ($7.65) K :heart: (2 players)
CO bets $7.30, Hero ?
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shipitgood
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2015, 04:14:44 PM »

Do we have any reads just from playing at the table? Not hud stats, but actual reads, like hands shown down?

It's hard for him to have a flush, unless it's something like 10q/10jhh, possibly ace 9 hh.

Could have 44, 99.

My decision would be based on reads, like if he's a nit, i'm folding to this bet sizing OTR.

I quite like checking the turn on this type of board a certain % of the time.

OTR facing this bet sizing against the general population on the site I play on, I expect to be beat here a good amount of the time.

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Oxford_HRV
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2015, 06:55:14 PM »

It's never an easy fold, usually it's feel that dictates if you should call or not.
assuming this is an easy fold is assuming villain never bluffs with big sizings.
I wouldn't like checking back the turn shipitgood its a good board for a b/b/b line. timing tells aswell should help you to decide, I generally say fold to bets in these scenarios when villain takes up a bit of time, they'll usually consider how to extract max value of their nutted hands and take a weird line like this, without mostly considering your perceived range. If it's a faster bet and generally villain dont use up time to think over decisions he may just be trying to be a hero.
It's good to note who is a grinder and who is 1tabling for fun to help, but dont take timing into a whole great part of your decision.
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Rexas
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2015, 03:04:31 AM »

Easy no, remember very few people that play actually win. I wouldn't ever try and trivialise a decision, especially one in an area you're struggling in, since this will lead to frustration and auto-piloting, which isn't what we want.

I probably fold in game too, people just are never bluffing as much as they would need to be in these spots, and we don't really beat much value stuff from someone we don't know is playing loads of hands pre. Certainly if he's multi-tabling I fold, if he's not I'd lean more towards a call, although I still might fold. Fairly close though.
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Sulphur man
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2015, 06:35:33 AM »

Large river bets are rarely bluffs so the likelihood here is you are somehow beat. With the way the hands
played out it does seem a little odd reading through at a glance. Probably going to be a good fold a high percentage of the time.

Shipitgood makes a really valid call on looking for or having more reads. Guilty of this myself in game but think you can
make more of an effort to gain some actual reads. Where is he from? Timing tells? OPR him, is he multi tabling, his buyin
indicates he is possibly a better player (sat deep) the list goes on. Like I say it's not my strong point either and almost certainly a weakness
online.

Great post/hand btw hope this doesn't seem negative it's certainly not meant to be in anyway. I always beat the drum for more reads on here
excellent post though. Will have another look when I wake it has been a long day.
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Sulphur man
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2015, 06:46:26 AM »

Just a few quick thoughts before I sleep.

Long pause followed by a raise (very strong)
Instant automatic raise (usually very strong)
Instant automatic check (weak or folding hand)
Odd number bet such as betting $9.95 instead of $10 (neutral hand)
Opponent quickly calls your bet (moderate to semi-weak hand)
Very small bets (weak hand, sometimes monster)
Massive all-in bets vs size of pot (monster or bluff)

I could write a pretty much endless Honeybadger type post on this
my strength tells wise is live and that just gives you a constant and endless stream
of data. Just saying even in the most standard of hand there is a tonne of information we
just have to train ourselves to be in observation mode while in a pot.
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KingPush
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2015, 12:23:37 AM »

Call. Bet slightly more on flop and turn, I normally go 1/2 pot plus 2 clicks, on flop and turn and then shove river. I think checking the turn here with ak no heart wouldn't be great
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