Should I be checking behind on river?

[pokerplayingfarmer]

Just a hand that's bugging me from recent 25/25 at leeds.

End of first level, 50/100 it's been quite a bit of loose aggro play but stacks are somehow all still pretty much around starting of 25k. I've decided to take the approach of seeing as many cheap flops as possible as every raise pre so far has had little or no respect and can't see the point of inflating pots against a table of looser than loose unknowns just yet, hate this but I refuse to nit up and polarise my range as I know I'd get put in so many tough spots.

Anyway, we have  A5ss in HJ with 2 limpers so I limp along and see a flop 5 ways

Js9d4s.

Bb opens 300
New late reg lady raises to 700 (this is her 1st hand, I recognise her, she's very competent)
I call
Bb folds.

Turn .

New lady bets 1200
I raise 2800
Calls

River J.

Lady checks, I bet 3100, lady calls with J9.

I knew this was the nut worst river for me.  In my eyes my hand was fairly transparent, I had her on some sort of J combo,
J-9TQK which I beat 50% of, but all the best ones still call, or a smaller flush, I know she's a decent player and really didn't think she would be risking missing value by checking a boat, hence why I bet.  Hate it when I value town the worst hand!!  Opinions please.

[david3103]

Might be inclined to make it more on the turn to charge sets and two pair hands (given her raise on the flop these seem likely - although she may be raising Q10 or worse flush draws?)

Not sure why she flat calls the river. J9 is effectively second nuts.

[cambridgealex]

4k on the turn - v rarely getting a fold here.

Have to bet river, sizing is fine, could go a touch bigger but nit much.

Ul. Wp pre and flop btw.

[PathFinder]

Think I prefer flatting the turn than raising as our hand is pretty transparent given flop action and I would want to try and keep my range as wide as possible when I have the nuts. Then you can probably ninja call the 3rd barrel instead of being the river aggressor. But it's whatever you just got unlucky. Love the lady's river check though

[cambridgealex]

Think I prefer flatting the turn than raising as our hand is pretty transparent given flop action and I would want to try and keep my range as wide as possible when I have the nuts. Then you can probably ninja call the 3rd barrel instead of being the river aggressor. But it's whatever you just got unlucky. Love the lady's river check though

Seems unnecessary in a live £200er.

[PathFinder]

Your unnecessary

[Oxford_HRV]

 

I knew this was the nut worst river for me.

Should probs check back

[rfgqqabc]

Her flop size, turn bet, and river call all seem pretty awful instead of competent.

Hate your turn size, much bigger is fine, doubt your going to get folds in a live bird and I'd presume she is rarely folding a hand that she has bet the turn with. Her river check is fine unless she can assume you will a) always fold to a check/raise and b) will call a much bigger river bet than you will actually bet yourself. On the turn we should be developing an idea of her range, and presuming this is full house heavy rather than flush heavy, as she likely doesn't raise the flop with a flush draw, we can either bet a similar size amount to what you bet or checkback. I'm fairly certain that I bet, just because its a rec heavy live comp and she should only really be continuing with flushes + ott, rather than betting other hands which have just gone behind on the debatably worst turn in the deck.

[pokerplayingfarmer]

Thanks for the input, I think if I do raise the turn more I'm more likely to check the river as I'd be more worried about a check shove, when my river bet would probs touching 1/3 of my remaining stack.

[Lawro74]

flat the turn and bet small on the river...I don't think she's ever checking the river with a boat as she could be losing any value...IMO

[gouty]

Your opponents flop re-raise is just weird. She must be a right punter. Limped pots are nearly impossible anyway and I don't think you did a lot wrong here.

QTss or some combo is what it looks like. Never putting a live player on top 2 or a set here are we?

[SuuPRlim]

i wouldnt be worried about a river check - raise, if you are check raised you defo have the worst hand so could fold fairly happily, surprised she doesnt raise here tbh when your hand looks incredibly like a flush.

I concur to bigger turn sizing ,I think you might get some hero folds off her OTR (speshly to big bets) but she will call virtually 100% on the turn so go bigger here and smaller OTR best way for max value.

I wouldn't have been too worried about the river tbh