Are you a bit jealous?........

[arbboy]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

[The Camel]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

[arbboy]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

[Tal]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...

Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

[The Camel]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...

Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

[edgascoigne]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...

Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

Turn it down, Shirley?

Positive expectation of £1,875 - ie. 12.5% of the roll. Surely less than forecast ROI on the comps you're going to play? Especially if this is a few years back!

Possibility to borrow makes this pretty much an unsolvable, but in isolation I don't think this is close at all?

[arbboy]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...

Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

No unless my total net worth is £400k+ then i might give him a spin.

[The Camel]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...

Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

Turn it down, Shirley?

Positive expectation of £1,875 - ie. 12.5% of the roll. Surely less than forecast ROI on the comps you're going to play? Especially if this is a few years back!

Possibility to borrow makes this pretty much an unsolvable, but in isolation I don't think this is close at all?

I was sorely tempted.

If the Sydney beaches had been in Melbourne I don't think I could have refused him!

[cambridgealex]

For a breakeven decision, wouldn't you need the forecasted ROI of the comps you were going to play to be 50% higher than £1875, to account for the times you win the flip AND play the comps?

So you'd actually need a forecasted ROI of great than £2812 to forego the bet?

[arbboy]

For a breakeven decision, wouldn't you need the forecasted ROI of the comps you were going to play to be 50% higher than £1875, to account for the times you win the flip AND play the comps?

So you'd actually need a forecasted ROI of great than £2812 to forego the bet?

Yes.  Plus you could also factor in you will play more comps during the trip because your bankroll has doubled and/or sell less action in the comps you were already playing.

[Junior Senior]

In answer to the question posed in the op.... Yes I am.

Good luck to him.

[kinboshi]

At least he hasn't taken a Lamborghini and modded it so it's 2,000bhp (apparently) and then driven it into a lake:

[Simon Galloway]

Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

But then he is a shrewd tipster or a shrewd judge, but not a shrewd gambler

[the sicilian]

Sicilian is 5'2, and drives a Porsche.

Think that make arbboy right.

which is an inch taller than you

[the sicilian]

Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Most cars like these are not designed for the taller person..driving them would be uncomfortable for anyone over 6'2" so prob why the majority are driven by short arses.... im pretty sure a lot of tall blokes would love to drive a motor like this but alas for once their tallness counts against them..