Yes I am aware of that,150k bank 6k Portland falls within that number.
Yes a staking plan is needed but the bets placed on the TFT thread are based on the price. Evs shot lets go £100. 3/1 £20. 200/1 gilles simon lets just go £5. All the different tipsters are just putting up a stake amount Correct staking plan?
You should read the whole thread, chief (some of us are that sad). There have been discussions about bet sizing from time to time, largely around Kelly and, as tikay/Fred has won a few quid, we've upped the bankroll.
There are three likely reasons why £5 on a 200/1 shot and £50 on at levels is more likely than the reverse:
1) The chances of the price being so far out in Kelly terms at 200/1 that it justifies a big bet are relatively small. It'd need to be a (for example) 20/1 shot to warrant a deep reach into the satchel. It's the percentage difference in the real and offer prices that matters and logically, an even money shot that should be 5/7 is a very juicy bet
2) Fred has some very sharp punters but it also has lots of recreational chaps and chappesses, who don't mind flinging the odd darts here and there but don't want to be responsible for losing people significant sums. The thread encourages people to gauge their own confidence in the merits of the bet and to report that. Over time, you get the idea of what hector's £25 means (clue: it involves a reversing Robert Wiseman dairy truck of money). Some people are more confident in suggesting £100 on a more marginal market and tikay and Tight End are good at judging bet sizes themselves, based on the info they are given.
3) The sad fact is Fred has been a victim of his own success. We rinsed the bookies early doors (everything from Cheltenham offers to betting on Madonna wearing a microphone in the super bowl) and paid the price: restricted accounts. Then we took them for a bit more and, lo and behold, closed accounts. Bookies have exposure limits and getting £50 on at even money is far easier than getting the same on at 200/1. With some, it's tuppence ha'penny on either, to be honest.
There is an awful lot of amazing stuff in those 6,000 pages: how odds are compiled, how to take advantage of bookies splitting the handle (on Fred, that is known as The Gravediggers Principle, after the Arkansas Gravediggers - long story - you'll see it when you come across it), how to look after your accounts, oh yes, and how to make money on literally anything.
Fred is a little old man, rocking in his chair, these days, recounting past glories to anyone who'll listen. I'd like to think there's life in the old dog yet.
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