The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

I was chatting to a work colleague this week, poker player you'd know of, who is canvassing for the Labour party in his spare time in marginals across London and the South.

I told him I couldn't vote for either major party and he told me what he says on the doorstep is "you don't have to like Corbyn to vote for Labour, he won't be around for ever..."

He battles it on the campaign trail every day

I have never voted Labour, but probably would have done this time (against this iteration of the Conservative party) if I had a Cooper or a Benn or a Starmer in charge toning down the barmy/over-optmistic/unedifying stuff and I suppose that might be said of plenty of marginal voters who just can't hold their nose and do it for a Corbyn led party but could for something a little more palatable

As it is, the Brexit vote is a lot more unified than the remain vote 

Think your friend is wrong on this or fighting a losing battle at least. All parties are a bit hoist by their own petard when it comes to trying to play down the importance of individuals/leaders.

The left are very happy to talk about Trump as though he is America or will be in power for ever - ludicrous to develop and foster this hate of all things American because they do things differently to us. Silly to attack Johnson rather than conservative policy in my view - it's a distraction. They do the same with Jo Swinson. Anyhoo, general point is that you can't go around personalising and trivialising everything through personal attacks and then try to dissuade people from judging your party on the basis of the leader you elected.

At a basic level, actually you really do have to like Corbyn to vote Labour right now

[TightEnd]

do you think Labour had a decent shot at a majority government under a diferent leader?

[buffyslayer1]

do you think Labour had a decent shot at a majority government under a diferent leader?

I know wasn't directed at me, but personally I do. I don't really dislike Corbyn that much. To be honest I am not really sure why he is by so many, but regardless the thing is many do and just won't vote labour no matter how good the policies they propose are. Not saying they are good, just it seems with him as leader they won't ever be elected.

Last election which May held onto power just about, I think labour would have pulled off a shock victory. Because the Tories manifesto was so poor both in policies and execution and the leader had 0 charisma. Not that it should matter but it does in today's world. Another problem corbyn has as well in my opinion, but having charm/charisma and being a good orator is very important in terms of getting message across and getting people on board.

[Jon MW]

do you think Labour had a decent shot at a majority government under a diferent leader?

I know wasn't directed at me, but personally I do. I don't really dislike Corbyn that much. To be honest I am not really sure why he is by so many, but regardless the thing is many do and just won't vote labour no matter how good the policies they propose are. Not saying they are good, just it seems with him as leader they won't ever be elected.

Last election which May held onto power just about, I think labour would have pulled off a shock victory. Because the Tories manifesto was so poor both in policies and execution and the leader had 0 charisma. Not that it should matter but it does in today's world. Another problem corbyn has as well in my opinion, but having charm/charisma and being a good orator is very important in terms of getting message across and getting people on board.

While you may be right - I think that if Corbyn hadn't been Labour leader, there wouldn't have been an election called and if there was it would have been a different manifesto and different campaign.

[nirvana]

do you think Labour had a decent shot at a majority government under a diferent leader?

Probably not but a fair chance of getting to be the Government with LD, SNP support

[Sheriff Fatman]

I was chatting to a work colleague this week, poker player you'd know of, who is canvassing for the Labour party in his spare time in marginals across London and the South.

I told him I couldn't vote for either major party and he told me what he says on the doorstep is "you don't have to like Corbyn to vote for Labour, he won't be around for ever..."

He battles it on the campaign trail every day

I have never voted Labour, but probably would have done this time (against this iteration of the Conservative party) if I had a Cooper or a Benn or a Starmer in charge toning down the barmy/over-optmistic/unedifying stuff and I suppose that might be said of plenty of marginal voters who just can't hold their nose and do it for a Corbyn led party but could for something a little more palatable

As it is, the Brexit vote is a lot more unified than the remain vote 

I'm guessing this is the one who's spent the last 4 years branding himself in pro-Corbyn gear, so I suspect most people will be thinking of the same person with regard to the 'mystery activist'.

The "won't be around forever" line must have been part of their canvassing briefings as it's the same line that was fed to us on our doorstep, and it's pathetic.  The reason Corbyn is disliked isn't simply a case of a personality clash that magically disappears when he steps down.  It's the fact that he's been responsible for fundamentally turning the party into an intolerant cesspit where former SWP, Communist Party members and anarchists now make up the core fabric of the CLPs, NEC and the head office functions, and they've gone back to the dark days of being run by union bosses (one union boss in particular, in this case).

Corbyn's personal history only accounts for a small part of the problem.  There'll be a favourable reaction when he does step down, but simply replacing him with someone like RLB, Pidcock, Burgon or whichever is the favourite acolyte of the moment won't be enough unless the inner workings fundamentally change.  The more moderate leadership candidates that would give them a wider electoral appeal won't get elected ahead of whichever Corbynista they ultimately align behind after a bit of an internal power struggle.

I doubt there's an internal will within the party to make any fundamental changes.  The best hope is that the EHRC verdict will change that by making things untenable for the senior party members, but I fully expect them to plough on regardless to ensure that they don't relinquish control of the party that they now hold.  The small matter of winning elections will always be secondary to this.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Another thread of observations from Lewis Goodall, who's reporting has been generally excellent, both before and during the campaign.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202982233520386048

It initially reads as very bleak for Labour,

The comments on potential reluctance of Tories to vote could be an interesting factor next week, particularly if the weather is bad on election day.  Presumably the Tories are at greater risk of this via their generally older voter base.  Labour will presumably have an advantage in their ability to mobilise their voter base, so you would assume that bad weather will favour them, in relative terms.

I'm hopeful it still might be enough to bring things back into hung Parliament territory, despite what the polls are currently indicating.  Such are the joys of hoping for another non-result.

[aaron1867]

Corbyn is winning this debate, the response from the audience is clear

Corbyn - clear and decisive

Boris - blabbering

[AndrewT]

Interesting thread here outlining how there could be three potential sources of polling error, and all three would overstate the Tory vote share in the polls.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202678707288264709

[TightEnd]

Corbyn is winning this debate, the response from the audience is clear

Corbyn - clear and decisive

Boris - blabbering

😂

On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:

Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%

via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers

[Sheriff Fatman]

All that debate did for me was reinforce the existing view that neither of them deserve to be anywhere close to Number 10.

The fact that one of them will be next Friday is depressing beyond belief.

[aaron1867]

Corbyn is winning this debate, the response from the audience is clear

Corbyn - clear and decisive

Boris - blabbering

😂

On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:

Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%

via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers

The problem with 52% is that they’ve always been seen as stupid

YouGov polling is biased anyway

[Doobs]

Looks like Johnson is trying to do a May here

Leader satisfaction ratings:

Johnson
Satisfied 36%
Dissatisfied 56%
Net -20

Corbyn
Satisfied 24%
Dissatisfied 68%
Net -44

Corbyn up from -60 to -44 since Nov
Johnson down from +2 to -20

In 2017 at this time Corbyn was -11 and May -7.

Above from Britain Elects

Though not much to see here

Tory lead now below 10pts according to the Britain Elects poll tracker:

CON: 42.4% (+0.1)
LAB: 32.8% (+1.4)
LDEM: 13.1% (-1.0)
BREX: 3.4% (-0.4)
GRN: 3.0% (-0.2)

[Doobs]

Marina Hyde was very good yesterday

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/06/tories-johnson-scary-manifesto-scrutiny-safari-park

In amongst that she raises the serious issue of page 48 where they promise to do what the heck they like in the future.   We won't have pesky citizens taking us to court when we do something illegal etc.


https://www.indy100.com/article/page-48-tory-manifesto-general-election-judiciary-courts-constitution-9234351

[Alverton]

All that debate did for me was reinforce the existing view that neither of them deserve to be anywhere close to Number 10.

The fact that one of them will be next Friday is depressing beyond belief.

Very much this.