The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[DungBeetle]

Yeah I'm certainly not saying it's as black and white as "everyone will stay" or "everyone would leave" but I suspect it's a bit close to the first one than the second. We Brits aren't exactly renowned for our embracing of foreign cultures and languages are we? And leaving family and friends behind is a huge wrench for most people.

As a purely theoretical point if a government placed sufficient safeguards in so that people couldn't just move their business overseas and continue to trade as normal in the UK, wouldn't logically the top 5% be replaced by a different 5%? In that case the question is more would a socialist or high-tax government kill business rather than cause people to sod off to some awful tax-haven purgatory

I think you're overestimating how many of the high earners are actually Brits.  The banking sector (for example) has a significant proportion of multilingual Europeans working in it.  They don't feel any tie to this country at all.   If London becomes uncompetitive (either due to high income tax, or a Tobin tax on London transactions) then they will be gone.

People aren't looking to move to tax-haven purgatory in many cases.  They just want a Government that doesn't take them for a ride.

Would those jobs then cease to exist?

If the banks decide that a Tobin tax means they can't operate competitively on the London Stock Exchange then absolutely.

If it's just income tax, the Banks will need to pay bigger salaries to attract the guys with the skills needed (quants/derivatives guys/sales people with established institutional networks).  They might do this temporarily, but long term they will likely figure that moving locations is better all round.

You can't just train up the people in retail banking to manage the exotics book or program a risk system.  The reality is they don't have the skill sets required.

The problem is this - it's easy to say "they won't leave - they're bluffing".  However, once industry sentiment starts to shift it will be very hard to reverse.

I'm sure many will say good riddance to the industry, but it is one of our best sectors with high long term tax revenue generating capabilities.  It is easy for people to use the bailout as justification why we don't need them.

Yah but only some leave - sure there'll be enough people left to backfill and Shirley succession plans mean there are people who can do the jobs or banking would end when the current crop die ? So what difference does it make, it makes none

True to a certain extent, but right now you've got a load of guys in French universities learning derivatives and London is very much on their radar as a desirable destination in terms of where they work in their early 20s.  Give it 5 years of heavy tax and regulation and London might become a backwater in the eyes of bright young things from all over the world. 

[DaveShoelace]

This thread is a really pleasant surprise btw. Lots of pretty well informed people (and me) making intelligent points, altering their views slightly and offering differing opinions on things that really matter.

This

About six months ago I stumbled onto the General Election thread and asked a somewhat snarky question about whether anyone had actually changed their mind on anything. My bias was that all political debate was polarised and not worth anyone's time and effort. However, I got sucked into that thread, and now this one, and I have had my mind changed on so many political subjects. Even though I don't agree with all, I really respect nearly everyone's opinions here, and for the most part it's really respectful debate.

Every question I've posted here this week has been one I have really struggled with personally, and it's been nice to see my conflicting views represented on both sides of the spectrum.

[nirvana]

I feel similarly - goes right back to the Scottish independence thing - although that was probably a bit more black/white by definition it was the grey that was interesting and seemed to awaken a generally decent discussion here.

Generally compels me to try and post something thought through at least, when I do, whereas generally I don't like to think too much,

[Marky147]

Never had the slightest interest in politics, but have found the threads here very interesting.

I actually have an active interest since those threads, and actually quite enjoy watching Bumbleby hold court on Thursday nights now.

I have probably read more political articles in the last 12 months, than I had in the previous 20 years.

Like Glenn, I don't like to think too much, so just enjoy reading the debates.

'It's better to be thought of as an idiot' always pops into my head, when I think about getting involved in a debate about stuff I don't have any real understanding of

[kukushkin88]

Our politicians reflect what we want to see in them.

You get someone who is possibly more honest than most in Corbyn and he is "unelectable"

There's a reason they avoid answering any questions. Maybe the media are also to blame

He is unelectable, if he is its unproven, because of his views not his honesty.

If he is unelectable, it's because he believes integrity and conviction is more important than doing/saying anything and everything to be electable. Isn't he making a good point?

I think the one thing we all agree on is that British politics needs an overhaul, yet based on this thread you'd swear everybody wants an opposition desperately sucking up to Murdoch and Dacre to try and be electable. I obviously fear for the country at the moment (especially the disabled and unwell), in spite of that I can't help but admire Corbyn.

Superb post kuku

Only this, I hate everything about out government and their politics. We let the country down dreadfully (every thinking person) by allowing these ***** to be in charge.

[kukushkin88]

Our politicians reflect what we want to see in them.

You get someone who is possibly more honest than most in Corbyn and he is "unelectable"

There's a reason they avoid answering any questions. Maybe the media are also to blame

He is unelectable, if he is its unproven, because of his views not his honesty.

If he is unelectable, it's because he believes integrity and conviction is more important than doing/saying anything and everything to be electable. Isn't he making a good point?

I think the one thing we all agree on is that British politics needs an overhaul, yet based on this thread you'd swear everybody wants an opposition desperately sucking up to Murdoch and Dacre to try and be electable. I obviously fear for the country at the moment (especially the disabled and unwell), in spite of that I can't help but admire Corbyn.

Superb post kuku

Only this, I hate everything about out government and their politics. We let the country down dreadfully (every thinking person) by allowing these ***** to be in charge

[DungBeetle]

Our politicians reflect what we want to see in them.

You get someone who is possibly more honest than most in Corbyn and he is "unelectable"

There's a reason they avoid answering any questions. Maybe the media are also to blame

He is unelectable, if he is its unproven, because of his views not his honesty.

If he is unelectable, it's because he believes integrity and conviction is more important than doing/saying anything and everything to be electable. Isn't he making a good point?

I think the one thing we all agree on is that British politics needs an overhaul, yet based on this thread you'd swear everybody wants an opposition desperately sucking up to Murdoch and Dacre to try and be electable. I obviously fear for the country at the moment (especially the disabled and unwell), in spite of that I can't help but admire Corbyn.

Superb post kuku

Only this, I hate everything about out government and their politics. We let the country down dreadfully (every thinking person) by allowing these ***** to be in charge.

No need to be so bitter about democracy.  The left will need to make a better case next time.  Or we could have PR which would have likely been a Tory and UKIP coalition this time around but might help the left in the future.

[DaveShoelace]

Question of the day

Is positive discrimination a good thing?

Is it ok, for example, to give women extra incentives to enter industries where there are not many females working? Is it ok to give minorities easier routes to certain careers etc, if historically it was not possible for them because times were more prejudice?

Maybe it's not the same thing, but also, is it ok for the government to give tax breaks to certain businesses to encourage them to come to this country and create jobs?

[TightEnd]

I am not a socialist but i thin i might be on the streets in portugal today if i was a portugese voter

"Remarkable events in Portugal, no? A democratically elected government is denied the opportunity to govern because its policies challenge the European Union. The left wing coalition won more than fifty per cent of the vote; out of the single currency, an end to austerity, bollocks to the Lisbon Treaty etc. But Anibal Cavaco Silva, the constitutional president, has banned them from taking office because it’s ‘too risky’."

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/are-european-socialists-waking-up-to-the-fact-theyve-created-a-monster/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[DaveShoelace]

I am not a socialist but i thin i might be on the streets in portugal today if i was a portugese voter

"Remarkable events in Portugal, no? A democratically elected government is denied the opportunity to govern because its policies challenge the European Union. The left wing coalition won more than fifty per cent of the vote; out of the single currency, an end to austerity, bollocks to the Lisbon Treaty etc. But Anibal Cavaco Silva, the constitutional president, has banned them from taking office because it’s ‘too risky’."

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/are-european-socialists-waking-up-to-the-fact-theyve-created-a-monster/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

That's disgusting. Even if you don't support the party itself, this is terrible news for democracy in all of Europe.

[DungBeetle]

This is an outrage.  Has made me significantly more likely to vote out when we have our referendum.

[neeko]

Question of the day

Is positive discrimination a good thing?

Is it ok, for example, to give women extra incentives to enter industries where there are not many females working? Is it ok to give minorities easier routes to certain careers etc, if historically it was not possible for them because times were more prejudice?

Maybe it's not the same thing, but also, is it ok for the government to give tax breaks to certain businesses to encourage them to come to this country and create jobs?

Don't know is the short answer but here are some stats from the states about medical schools

https://www.aei.org/publication/acceptance-rates-at-us-medical-schools-in-2013-reveal-racial-profiling-and-affirmative-discrimination-for-blacks-hispanics/

And can Asians get into top us colleges?

http://priceonomics.com/post/48794283011/do-elite-colleges-discriminate-against-asians

[david3103]

I am not a socialist but i thin i might be on the streets in portugal today if i was a portugese voter

"Remarkable events in Portugal, no? A democratically elected government is denied the opportunity to govern because its policies challenge the European Union. The left wing coalition won more than fifty per cent of the vote; out of the single currency, an end to austerity, bollocks to the Lisbon Treaty etc. But Anibal Cavaco Silva, the constitutional president, has banned them from taking office because it’s ‘too risky’."

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/are-european-socialists-waking-up-to-the-fact-theyve-created-a-monster/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

That's disgusting. Even if you don't support the party itself, this is terrible news for democracy in all of Europe.

Ignoring the wishes of the people isn't just a Portugese issue.

In 2004 the North East rejected devolution by a substantial 3:1 majority, that was such a crushing rejection that other regional referenda were cancelled.

But now, without so much as a 'by your leave'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-34609507

[DaveShoelace]

Question of the day

Which poltical writers/journalists/media figures and politicians do you respect a lot, even though you don't agree with the bulk of their specific political views?

[TightEnd]

Question of the day

Which poltical writers/journalists/media figures and politicians do you respect a lot, even though you don't agree with the bulk of their specific political views?

One thing i note, particularly now with social media, is that people follow commentator's views that they agree with and (the 2015 general election was a good example of this) are then hugely surprised when a result is different than expected by their "circle".

I am right leaning (economically, not so much on social policy) and left leaning people that i read and follow are

Kevin Maguire, who is the daily mirror political correspondent
Alistair Campbell. been there done it and a very astute observer
Olly Grender. Olly was a lib dem policy adviser before they went into coalition, then took time off to raise to a family. very good on twitter
Alan Johnson the former home secretary is very good on this week and similar programmes
so is Jacqui Smith
michael white the veteran guardian correspondent
owen jones of the guardian