River decision

[shipitgood]

Early stages of Sky's Main event BH. Player is a tight regular. I can't think of many hands we beat by the river apart from AcA

Would be interested to hear peoples views on all streets

We are in the SB with pocket ,
 Blinds 15/30

UTG raises to 90, everyone calls, we call SB, BB its a total nit and folds.

5 Players to the flop.


 

Checks to UTG he bets 240 half pot. Folds to us we call.

Turn  

He bets 720. 3/4 pot
We call

River he mashes the 3/4 pot button again. The bet is 1800

Kinda looks like the nuts or almost nuts

[UgotNuts]

  Could he have here ?

[shipitgood]

I don't think AcKx bets river, seems really thin.

I folded to the river bet.

The turnand rivers bets are massive.

It's never a bluff I don't think, felt like a flush or a set of .

Could be wrong, just based on the fact he's tight, don't think aces even bet the river, especially not with this sizing. 

[Ransom]

Early stages of Sky's Main event BH. Player is a tight regular. I can't think of many hands we beat by the river apart from AcA

Would be interested to hear peoples views on all streets

We are in the SB with pocket ,
 Blinds 15/30

UTG raises to 90, everyone calls, we call SB, BB its a total nit and folds.

5 Players to the flop.


 

Checks to UTG he bets 240 half pot. Folds to us we call.

Turn  

He bets 720. 3/4 pot
We call

River he mashes the 3/4 pot button again. The bet is 1800

Kinda looks like the nuts or almost nuts

I'm not exactly loving life in this spot. I originally thought that I wouldn't be folding here, but the bet sizing seems like he has it and thinks betting full pot will just give it away, and half pot is too small so he's trying to come to a balance between the two to extract max value here.  

Getting almost 2.5/1 on a call, but I just don't think we have the best hand here often enough to justify it.

If he's a tight regular, then I don't think he's going to be betting 3 streets with   for example.

I think it's a reluctant nitty fold for me.

[UgotNuts]

Interesting stuff. If he floped the flush would he bet out utg? I think I would be checking with 5 other players in the pot, unless he didn't have the nit flush draw and is trying to bet the A off the pot. Top set might bet out to protect their hand, although a couple of flush draws will probably come along for the ride.

Would check raising the turn here be really bad? If he has top set then it's just a cooler. Ackx is still calling but we are ahead of that.

Weighing it all up I think check calling can't be too bad on the river. What does he think your check calling with to the river? Probably flush draws a high percentage of the time right. He can't put you on a set as you've given nothing away to suggest your that strong, so it's hard to see what hands he is trying to get value out of on the river. Can't see sets being apart of that range.