Live MTT spot

[TheFruitbat]

Hey guys, haven't posted anything for a long while but looking to get back into things and hopefully get some good feedback on this spot. Here goes,

Live MTT, 2nd Chance Deepstack @ DTD

£360 buy in

132 runners, 11 remain, 13 paid

blinds 8k-16k/1k

Hero stack 1.5m        1/11

Opponent 1 stack 900,000      3/11     

Opponent 2 stack 950,000       2/11

Average is 600,000

Hero is seen as loose and aggressive, starting to leverage stack in spots but not getting way out of line.

Opponent 1 is Young, Tight, on the passive side but seems reasonably competent.

Opponent 2 is a Young, very good loose aggressive Reg.

6 handed

Hero is UTG and raises to 36k with   

Opponent 1, UTG+1 calls 36k,

Opponent 2, BTN 3 bets to 105k

Folds to us, How should we proceed and more importantly, why?

[MC]

Seems like a really easy 4b/gii.

[JGill_DTD]

Would be happy flatting, being deep in such a high value live MTT.

Would consider 4b/c more so with AKo but AKs definitely plays well enough post flop to peel, hes probably gonna barrel a bunch of A high and K high boards. With us being so deep and in such a sick position to make a good run it feels too high variance to go getting the lot in, even vs a LAG. I doubt even a LAG would be looking to get the lot in vs you super wide here when he's got abso chunks and doesn't NEED to take this sort of spot wide.
This will also keep dominated hands in from opponent 1.

[WotRTheChances]

Depends who villain 2 is.... if they are like really super aggro and you think they might 5b/fold or thinks you're massively getting OOL, i'd possibly 3bet small to induce. Very few people will 5bet fold this spot though, so i'd either 4bet quite big (Just 'cause it looks a bit more fos because it puts villain in a spot where they have to jam/fold), or flatting has to be good.

Tbh i doubt people will think you will be getting really OOL 4betting light in this spot, so I quite like a peel, for the reasons JGJGJGJG3000000 said. If you were Mitch/Alex i'd probs prefer 4bet call because they're massive punters and wont have any edge going forward in the comp

[cambridgealex]

Definitely an interesting spot.

Makes it more interesting given I know who Villain 2 is. And seeing as you do too (duh obviously), I'll answer from that perspective, rather than saying what I would do vs a random player with that description.

It seems really close and really depends on how he plays these spots these days. I haven't played with him for a while, I know he's really good, but definitely used to take hugely high variance spots in the past when deep, dick wave a fair amount (but still in a +EV way if you know what I mean) and level people / himself in these ICM spots so for that reason I'd be really tempted to 4b to around 280k and snap off a jam of course.

Having said that, I haven't played or discussed strat much with him over the last couple of years so maybe he plays these spots differently now. If you asked him he might say "well it would be ICM suicide for me to 3b/5b anything there except AA/KK" in which case you 4b/calling AKs would be terrible.

So it really depends on what you think his strategy is at that time, how is his mindset etc. Is he ready to go to war, fk ICM, ready to use the fact that you know that he knows etc? Or is he gonna playing solid and sensible and not go to war when 2/12 vs 1/12 good reg? The answer is in that.

The problem with flatting is that since UTG1 is in the pot, if he's good and as described he will pretty much just have pairs in his range, and any suited broadways, AQo he is peeling your open to, he should fold to the 3bet even when you call. So when you call, he actually won't overcall hands you dominate, and will just have pairs, so you basically need to flop A/K to win the pot. Which will still happen enough and your being suited is obviously a great bonus in that respect, just saying, it's a downside imo that UTG1 will overcall all his pairs but not his dominated hands as JGill suggested (if he's good).

@WotR, I don't see how Hero can 3bet to induce with these stacks. The 3bet is to 105k, Are you suggesting making it 215 or something and hoping villain 4bets to 340 playing 950 total and folds? Seems optimistic, and given villain is IP he'll just peel all his suited bullshit to this size 100%.

[JGill_DTD]

The problem with flatting is that since UTG1 is in the pot, if he's good and as described he will pretty much just have pairs in his range, and any suited broadways, AQo he is peeling your open to, he should fold to the 3bet even when you call. So when you call, he actually won't overcall hands you dominate, and will just have pairs, so you basically need to flop A/K to win the pot.

Not so sure about this, getting a pretty sick price with KQs-J10s, I expect a very select few to make the fold given stacks and sizing.

[rfgqqabc]

Thoughts on ripping?

[cambridgealex]

The problem with flatting is that since UTG1 is in the pot, if he's good and as described he will pretty much just have pairs in his range, and any suited broadways, AQo he is peeling your open to, he should fold to the 3bet even when you call. So when you call, he actually won't overcall hands you dominate, and will just have pairs, so you basically need to flop A/K to win the pot.

Not so sure about this, getting a pretty sick price with KQs-J10s, I expect a very select few to make the fold given stacks and sizing.

Yeh agree, although we want JTs, QJs, QTs to fold, so that leaves KQs, KJs, and I guess AQs and AJs as well in the group of hands that we dominate and will continue. And given he will call say 66-JJ (may even be flatting QQ because of ICM and utg vs utg1 vs CL?), combo wise that is 6pairs*6 = 36combos, plus the 12 combos of JTs, QJs and QTs = 48 combos we'd rather him fold vs 16 combos we'd rather him call (KQs, KJs, AQs, AJs), I think overall we'd rather this be heads up than 3 ways. Could be persuaded otherwise, just giving my initial reasoning behind the comment.

[JGill_DTD]

The problem with flatting is that since UTG1 is in the pot, if he's good and as described he will pretty much just have pairs in his range, and any suited broadways, AQo he is peeling your open to, he should fold to the 3bet even when you call. So when you call, he actually won't overcall hands you dominate, and will just have pairs, so you basically need to flop A/K to win the pot.

Not so sure about this, getting a pretty sick price with KQs-J10s, I expect a very select few to make the fold given stacks and sizing.

Yeh agree, although we want JTs, QJs, QTs to fold, so that leaves KQs, KJs, and I guess AQs and AJs as well in the group of hands that we dominate and will continue. And given he will call say 66-JJ (may even be flatting QQ because of ICM and utg vs utg1 vs CL?), combo wise that is 6pairs*6 = 36combos, plus the 12 combos of JTs, QJs and QTs = 48 combos we'd rather him fold vs 16 combos we'd rather him call (KQs, KJs, AQs, AJs), I think overall we'd rather this be heads up than 3 ways. Could be persuaded otherwise, just giving my initial reasoning behind the comment.

yeah makes sense, was more of a marginal reason to peel rather than it being the main reason behind my thoughts.

Think keeping him in should also keep opponent 2 a little more honest, giving us more of a chance to see turns than we normally would do in a HU pot.

Ripping feels a little excessive, even though he has to call with such a narrow range of hands, just seems like a bit of a waste of such a pretty hand and I personally would be more inclined to do so if we had AKo

[cambridgealex]

Ripping is interesting, and agree would much rather rip AKo than AKs

Not a fan of 4betting AKo though, as villain peeling is really awful for us (and I know villain will get fancy and peel a 4bet a lot), however with AKs there's so many more flops we can profitably cbet, and turns we can jam. By the turn we're going to have at least a flush draw or a pair way more often with AKs and AKo, so taking AKo to the streets in a 4bet pot is not something I'm a fan of.

I would be torn between ripping and flatting the 3bet with AKo, whereas AKs seems close to either 4b/call or just call as well.

[Pinchop73]

Like a gibbons in this spot

Also def flatting pre vs this particular villain if I have it correct. Prefer ripping than 4b to any size.

[WotRTheChances]

@WotR, I don't see how Hero can 3bet to induce with these stacks. The 3bet is to 105k, Are you suggesting making it 215 or something and hoping villain 4bets to 340 playing 950 total and folds? Seems optimistic, and given villain is IP he'll just peel all his suited bullshit to this size 100%.

Well yeah that's why i said it would have to be vs a very specific villain in the frame of mind to find a light 5b/fold. If i've got the villain correct, there are certainly times in the past I wouldnt think it that optimistic for that plan to be reasonable. Even vs the most LAG villain i'd rarely 4bet small in this spot of course.

As for the other villain folding all non-pairs, I have to disagree. They're not folding AQs, KQs, even some AJs/AQo, KJs, JQs/TJs stuff potentially. I mean people make pretty big mistakes all the time, and it's not even much of a mistake to peel again with a lot of the hands i've just mentioned.

[cambridgealex]

@WotR, I don't see how Hero can 3bet to induce with these stacks. The 3bet is to 105k, Are you suggesting making it 215 or something and hoping villain 4bets to 340 playing 950 total and folds? Seems optimistic, and given villain is IP he'll just peel all his suited bullshit to this size 100%.

Well yeah that's why i said it would have to be vs a very specific villain in the frame of mind to find a light 5b/fold. If i've got the villain correct, there are certainly times in the past I wouldnt think it that optimistic for that plan to be reasonable. Even vs the most LAG villain i'd rarely 4bet small in this spot of course.

As for the other villain folding all non-pairs, I have to disagree. They're not folding AQs, KQs, even some AJs/AQo, KJs, JQs/TJs stuff potentially. I mean people make pretty big mistakes all the time, and it's not even much of a mistake to peel again with a lot of the hands i've just mentioned.

See my second post on that.

[pleno1]

Depending who it is you could potentially 4bf, potentially rip, potentially call. 4bc seems like suicide

[pleno1]

Ripping is interesting, and agree would much rather rip AKo than AKs

Not a fan of 4betting AKo though, as villain peeling is really awful for us (and I know villain will get fancy and peel a 4bet a lot), however with AKs there's so many more flops we can profitably cbet, and turns we can jam. By the turn we're going to have at least a flush draw or a pair way more often with AKs and AKo, so taking AKo to the streets in a 4bet pot is not something I'm a fan of.

I would be torn between ripping and flatting the 3bet with AKo, whereas AKs seems close to either 4b/call or just call as well.

Villain peeling us when we have ako and this spr is far far from really awful, especially if his peeling range is mostly hands that we dominate (unlikely he decides to squeeze 87s)