Wimbledon 2015

[arbboy]

I'm surprised anyone posts when there is a lynch mob out at every turn.

Camel. You point out that you started TFT so people would explain their picks. This isn't TFT, it's the Wimbledon area.

However. At least he puts his head on the block. for a pro punter, we get very little from you, to then criticise others for actually doing it. It's sad that I feel quite so nervous putting that, because no doubt I will get a right royal slating, but so what. It's the truth, I can only get called the same old names so often, and I will be joining a very long list of select names that you can't stand, so I will be in good company, at least.

As for arbboy, well you will never sound like me. I could never sound quite so full of myself over picking a fav that was the clear form choice, ranked clear world number one and has already won the event on multiple occasions. Countdown for a tirade on how I would never recognise value, I don't have a clue about betting etc.

Anyway. I'm sure hector doesn't need me fighting his battles. He has always been a true gent in all my dealings with him, and I'm sure he will reply in his own style, when he sees fit. Certainly not because you lot have called him out.

Flame away. I'm back off to bed.

As usual though Adz you miss out the ONLY thing that matters to anyone who wants to win long term punting.  We got 2/1 and it went off 11/8.  Securing my usual decent roi whether it wins, loses or draws.  The rest just takes care of itself over time.  The fact he was clear number 1 blah blah blah makes no difference to me.  If he was evens it would have been no bet, if it was 11/8 it would have been no bet but he would still have been the most likely winner and a multiple champion and world number 1.  2/1 it is a strong bet and i recommended so 6 months ago.  I know you struggle with this simple stuff as your posts have shown for years but this is how you make money gambling day in day out in the modern era where volume is so important because the big edges which used to exist have long gone generally.

The vast majority of time the value is right at the top of the market due to fav/longshot bias and certain layers loving 'getting a fav in the book','never go skint laying a short one' blah blah blah and giving it away.  FWIW i backed him again ew at 6/4 with coral the day before the event getting 6/8 a place on him reaching the final when people were asking for close to 4/7 on betfair to reach the final.  The betting shop manager chuckled at me backing a 6/4 shot ew like you probably would as well and asked if i meant to back it win only.  You just smile quietly at them and collect the ev in a couple of weeks time.  I don't expect you to understand backing a 6/4 shot ew is a professional bet either as your ew selections over the years are comically bad (if it is bigger than 10/1 than it is virtually always an ew bet for you whatever the make up of the race and the ew terms available) and virtually always give away a % of your win profits, if you have any built into the bet, on the place part of the bet which could virtually always be placed at a superior price on betfair as a different place only bet.

You were right though in your initial description of yourself though just thought i would add a bit of meat to the bone for those readers who like the more advanced side of punting.

[BigAdz]

Cheers Arb.

You didn't disappoint! As ever though, I am happy to lack the finer points of understanding/exploiting value, in exchange for being able to pick winners.

I know you understand your stuff, and that is value in itself, hence the reason I backed Djok when you put it up. Thank you.

From the lack of acknowledgement though, I guess you have been passing up the big priced winners I have suggested. Ergo, you are missing some startling free value! Either that or you're just rude!!!

Tim said he saw you at Uttox races yesterday after the 5th race, you should have come and joined us and Bobby1, you could given us some one on one tuition!

[arbboy]

Cheers Arb.

You didn't disappoint! As ever though, I am happy to lack the finer points of understanding/exploiting value, in exchange for being able to pick winners.

I know you understand your stuff, and that is value in itself, hence the reason I backed Djok when you put it up. Thank you.

From the lack of acknowledgement though, I guess you have been passing up the big priced winners I have suggested. Ergo, you are missing some startling free value! Either that or you're just rude!!!

Tim said he saw you at Uttox races yesterday after the 5th race, you should have come and joined us and Bobby1, you could given us some one on one tuition!

Too busy emptying the satchels mate yday as all the 'top of the market' value kept winning all day long.  Shelling peas.  Assume you have a tough day as all the 'value' rags had a bad day in terrible ew races?  Surely even you were betting win only at Uttox yday!!   

I didn't realise you knew Tim. I didn't realise Tim was with anyone at Uttox yday he seemed to be on his own when i saw him just before the last race topping up on the Sheep in the lucky last as it drifted and drifted on the off.  Me and Tim go way back to the very early days at 365 nightshifts on the USA desk in 2001.  Why didn't you introduce yourself?

[BigAdz]

He didn't mention it until we were leaving the course, or I would have. He said you were carrying plenty of timber, so I guess you struggled to carry all that cash on a hot day like that!

Only met him yesterday, v nice fella.

yes, even I noticed it was a win only day.... so we did.

Next time mate.

[arbboy]

He didn't mention it until we were leaving the course, or I would have. He said you were carrying plenty of timber, so I guess you struggled to carry all that cash on a hot day like that!

Only met him yesterday, v nice fella.

yes, even I noticed it was a win only day.... so we did.

Next time mate.

He said that to me as well re timber even though i am 2 stone lighter than the last time he saw me!  Think he only remembers me as a slim, fit 26 year old novice to the game that i was when we worked together in 2001!  Top top guy Tim though,  had many a great night shift with him at 365 back in the day punting on anything that moved.  He loves a bet!

You are right about the sun though.  Pretty sun burnt this morning.