Devastating news , what would you do ?....Tunisia

[iangascoigne]

    Have to agree with Tighty. Cannot imagine being able to 'relax' in Tunisia for a holiday at the moment. The resorts will be empty and it's not fun sunbathing with armed police strolling along the beach. It's not about the maths of the situation and it's only on a Poker site where the suggestion is to cancel,get a refund and rebook at a lower price!
    

[TightEnd]

There's absolutely no way even someone like you tighty can snap tell me what the relative risks are of Tunis vs Barcelona (it's well known 'experts' have the same biases as 'normals')

I can tell you what friends and family would snap assess the balearics versus tunisia. no contest at the moment. Their peace of mind over-rides any confirmation or recency bias they have, i have or anyone has.   

For £2800 (think a full refund is on offer) i could get 7 nights all inclusive in majorca give or take a hundred quid or so on the basis of a 2 minute google search

[celtic]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

people are where families are concerned

I have a PhD in a statistical subject. I know the probabilities and theory

you would not get me taking my family anywhere such as tunisia (higher risk of terrorist activity than some other destinations) on holiday

i wouldn't have booked tunisia, morocco, turkey, israel etc in the first place

if i get blown up in Majorca, so be it!

peace of mind for myself and others and regard for the family over-rides the rationality

You're not answering the question correctly tho.

You should be answering on the basis that you booked it originally, knowing the risks.

[TightEnd]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

people are where families are concerned

I have a PhD in a statistical subject. I know the probabilities and theory

you would not get me taking my family anywhere such as tunisia (higher risk of terrorist activity than some other destinations) on holiday

i wouldn't have booked tunisia, morocco, turkey, israel etc in the first place

if i get blown up in Majorca, so be it!

peace of mind for myself and others and regard for the family over-rides the rationality

You're not answering the question correctly tho.

You should be answering on the basis that you booked it originally, knowing the risks.

i would now take the refund and rebook somewhere comparable but in western europe/florida etc on a last minute deal, haggling for a discount.

[bobAlike]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

You are totally missing my point. Going to school, driving, holidays have all an associated risk that we accept. I would never knowingly increase that risk by visiting a place like Tunisia even if it has just gone through some horrific terrorist attack and is swarming with security services.

[The Camel]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

You are totally missing my point. Going to school, driving, holidays have all an associated risk that we accept. I would never knowingly increase that risk by visiting a place like Tunisia even if it has just gone through some horrific terrorist attack and is swarming with security services.

I'm pretty certain there's going to be an attack on a British city sometime soon.

Would that risk stop you travelling to London?

[leethefish]

I appreciate the replys

Just out of interest how many have been to Tunisia before and understand their culture ?

[bobAlike]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

You are totally missing my point. Going to school, driving, holidays have all an associated risk that we accept. I would never knowingly increase that risk by visiting a place like Tunisia even if it has just gone through some horrific terrorist attack and is swarming with security services.

I'm pretty certain there's going to be an attack on a British city sometime soon.

Would that risk stop you travelling to London?

I was working in London around the time of the 7/7 attack, I knew that the tube system was a priority target for terrorism so I caught black cabs everywhere and still do when I'm there. In answer to your question - only if I needed to.

[arbboy]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

You are totally missing my point. Going to school, driving, holidays have all an associated risk that we accept. I would never knowingly increase that risk by visiting a place like Tunisia even if it has just gone through some horrific terrorist attack and is swarming with security services.

I'm pretty certain there's going to be an attack on a British city sometime soon.

Would that risk stop you travelling to London?

Yes.  I do everything in my power to not travel to London at the best of times.  I agree with you.  Wimbledon must be on the radar for an attack for me in the next two weeks amongst other london targets.

[kinboshi]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

You are totally missing my point. Going to school, driving, holidays have all an associated risk that we accept. I would never knowingly increase that risk by visiting a place like Tunisia even if it has just gone through some horrific terrorist attack and is swarming with security services.

I'm pretty certain there's going to be an attack on a British city sometime soon.

Would that risk stop you travelling to London?

I was working in London around the time of the 7/7 attack, I knew that the tube system was a priority target for terrorism so I caught black cabs everywhere and still do when I'm there. In answer to your question - only if I needed to.

I was in London exactly a week after the 7/7 bombings. Never felt safer on the tube, near stations or walking down the street. Didn't think I was likely to be mugged or pickpocketed that day!

I think people are over-estimating the increased risk. It's like when the daily mail reports something increasing the number of cancer cases by 300% and it sounds like a scary number, when actually the number of cases had gone from infinitesimally small to slightly less infinitesimally small.

The reasons I wouldn't go to Tunisia are probably along the lines of what Matt and Ian said. It's probably not going to be the most enjoyable place to go and relax and forget the troubles of the world.

[kinboshi]

Of course, if you feel as though there's a greater risk, even if there isn't, then you're not going to enjoy it. That in itself is a reason to go elsewhere.

[nirvana]

I appreciate the replys

Just out of interest how many have been to Tunisia before and understand their culture ?

Had to go there for work about 7 years ago, and stayed at a resort in Monastir - perfect really as it enabled me to confirm all my prejudices about beach holidays and rule it out as somewhere I'd want to willingly travel to

[MANTIS01]

I am an Englishman and as such nobody but nobody is going to intimidate me or inhibit me from travelling around freely in my own country. Terror me in Britain mate? Nah I don't think you will! So yeah I really do buy into that stuff about not letting the terrorist win when we're talking about home soil. But as far as Tunisia goes I simply don't care enough about winning that battle.

I've been to Morocco & Egypt a few times and whilst it was a wicked experience there are plenty of other sweet places to visit. If there is a faction in Tunisia that doesn't want tourists, especially to the extent they will murder vast swathes of them on the beaches, then fuck Tunisia imo. I'm going to Sardinia next where I would hazard such groups don't exist.

People often say vote with ur feet if ur not happy. Had a shit meal? Vote with ur feet and don't go to that restaurant again. Well as far as holidays go this Tunisia coup is zero stars imo, so why would you go? I mean forget lol geeky risk calculation it's more the Tunisia govt and the tourist industry deserve a good kicking over this. They were prob complacent, min resources ploughed into uncovering terror, leads not followed, police took a feckin age to turn up, hotel staff clueless with no drilled action plan despite similar recent atrocity. Don't let the terrorist win in this eg? Why not? Tunisia is pretty shit anyway so fine by me.

[bobAlike]

MANTIS nails it again.....

Move over Brad.

[Ironside]

MANTIS nails it again.....

Move over Brad.

Brad would of nailed it 24 hours ago and thats without the TZ differences