Ok so just ran the proper numbers. It's obv a lot of guess work, and I've made quite loose assumptions about BB's range and stack off range. I've given him a cold call range of 40% here. Maybe too loose, but I'd guess it was ok for a semi whaley type. Sb range I've gone for a pretty standard top 15%, assuming hero is opening a decent amount. Both ranges excluding the very top that I assume are getting it in pre.
I've given sb a stack off range OTF as KQ+,Q9+:T,9+:hh,Thh+ and using this range he's going to be stacking off 53.25% of the time on this flop, given his preflop range.
I've given BB a pretty loose stack off range of any 2 pair, any flush draw, 9T+ (maybe too loose, let me know what you think). Therefore BB is going to be stacking off 75.16% of the time.
When sb has a hand he is stacking off with we have 16% vs his range, and 29% vs BB. 3 way we have 18%. Most of our EV comes from fold equity which we have 12% of vs said ranges, although as the pot is so big, it counts for a lot.
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However as you can see it's a -$7.47 shove overall. Not much and a lot closer than I was expecting. Given that as Phil said he expects people to lead some of their GII hands, this probably works out to a breakeven shove.
Would like to hear opinions on my range estimations and anything I may have missed/overlooked/done wrong.