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TightEnd
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« on: October 26, 2015, 01:36:07 PM » |
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observed global temperature changes since 1850. 2015 (so far) has broken the graph.  are you a climate change worrier or dernier? is it irreversible, or what should we do about it? |
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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atdc21
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2015, 02:34:58 PM » |
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What happened in 1880?
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No point feeding a pig Truffles if he's happy eating shit.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2015, 02:42:21 PM » |
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What happened in 1880?
from the star newspaper, 1880 | Click to see full-size image. |
 it was a hot year! |
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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AdamM
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2015, 08:57:08 AM » |
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they don't write them like that any more  |
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Doobs
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2015, 09:08:12 AM » |
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I am not a denier, but it has only broken the graph because the scale for the y axis has been set by somebody with a clear agenda.
If you are told there was a 90% chance that there was a nasty murderer who likes to mutilate children waiting on the path to school; you wouldn't pack your daughter's bag and send her out on that same path because there was that small element of doubt about the whole thing.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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tikay
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2015, 09:27:55 AM » |
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they don't write them like that any more It's truly a beautifully written piece. The art of eloquent writing seems to be lost in the media these days. |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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AlunB
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2015, 10:43:30 AM » |
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they don't write them like that any more It's truly a beautifully written piece. The art of eloquent writing seems to be lost in the media these days. Nonsense. You're just reading the wrong sort of media. The NY Times is still full of that awful, overwritten dense sort of prose. |
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AlunB
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2015, 10:46:47 AM » |
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I am not a denier, but it has only broken the graph because the scale for the y axis has been set by somebody with a clear agenda.
If you are told there was a 90% chance that there was a nasty murderer who likes to mutilate children waiting on the path to school; you wouldn't pack your daughter's bag and send her out on that same path because there was that small element of doubt about the whole thing.
I'm not sure I get what you mean by this. I get the first point, but not the second about the murderer. |
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Jon MW
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2015, 10:51:53 AM » |
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It's not perfect but this gives a sense of the longer term | Click to see full-size image. |
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
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AdamM
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2015, 11:25:04 AM » |
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Hasn't that been debunked?
Seems unlikely that the majority of climatologists would have ignored that if it were true
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Doobs
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2015, 11:45:13 PM » |
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I am not a denier, but it has only broken the graph because the scale for the y axis has been set by somebody with a clear agenda.
If you are told there was a 90% chance that there was a nasty murderer who likes to mutilate children waiting on the path to school; you wouldn't pack your daughter's bag and send her out on that same path because there was that small element of doubt about the whole thing.
I'm not sure I get what you mean by this. I get the first point, but not the second about the murderer. Sorry if it wasnt clear. Must climate change deniers aren't complete deniers, they just don't see the evidence as 100%. I think people get the argument all wrong. The consequences of ignoring climate change are too catastrophic even if you believe the chances aren't even that close to 100%. I personally think by far the most likely reason for climate change is that it is man made, but don't think it is proven completely. But even if I think there is only a 90% chance it is true, we still need to do something about it. The downside of action is much smaller than the downside of inaction. In the real world you prepare for things that happen much less often than 90% of the time. You'd have to be a complete Fwit to believe that there was zero chance climate change was man made. So back to the example, even if you think the statisticians have made a huge mistake and the murderer is only there 25% of the time, you still don't let your kid walk to school. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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AlunB
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2015, 12:09:47 AM » |
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Ah OK, I get you now. It's a really good point. A proper Pascal's wager. I'm really struggling to see how anyone could disagree. And yet...
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Doobs
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2015, 09:20:11 AM » |
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Says Christopher Booker... |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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bobAlike
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2015, 09:21:05 AM » |
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Says Christopher Booker... Sponsored by VW? |
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Ah! The element of surprise
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