The Next President of the United States

[baldock92]

2016 really has been a crazy year from a political perspective. Who knows what will change over the coming months and years.

[Karabiner]

Trumpy will do a good job

Only once in history has a golfer lost to a non golfer in the presidential election

Don't they both play?

PS Contrary to what I was expecting the USD has actually strengthened v GBP overnight.

[Woodsey]

Well that was a kick in the bollocks for career politicians, more straight talking needed from all politicians I say...

[RED-DOG]

Rigged!

[RED-DOG]

Perhaps the pollsters should ask people to enter a booth, tick a box on a polling slip and put it into a slot in a box, then we might get a true idea of people's intentions.

[TightEnd]

well that was a remarkable night

2016 might be a history class in about 50 years time


some really interesting stats out there....


a) Women only broke for HRC by 12 points, only 1 more than Obama. Men were 53-41 Trump (52-45 Romney)

[TightEnd]

b) Astonishing as this may sound, Donald Trump actually INCREASED the Republican share of Hispanic voters (29% vs Romney's 27%)

[TightEnd]

c) Almost all of Trump's gains came in the north half of the country.

Missing White Voters, not polled (i assume), plenty not previously voters.

trump made big gains in rural america

the brighter the red, the more the shift to trump from 2012

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

d) White people of nearly all ages, genders, income and education levels chose Donald Trump. The only exception? White, college educated women

white college educated women voted 45% (!incredible, yes?) for Trump

[TightEnd]

e) Hillary lost white women without a degree by more than 20 points.

another jaw dropper to the journos.

basically they hated hillary, hated the establishment and voted for the non-politician it seems

[TightEnd]

f) national polls were only 2-3 points off, less than half the UK general election miss. The big misses were in swing state polls (again not picking up and polling rural/working class voting intentions)

[TightEnd]

g) there was a good interview, which might be on youtube

CNN’s Van Jones perfectly explains the pain of a Donald Trump victory http://huff.to/2fYWTZM

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

h Paul Krugman is a leftie nobel prize winning economist

he's optimistic

(end to global free trade etc)

"We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight"

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

[TightEnd]

i one pollster said

"Moral of Brexit vote was that white voters want things they will not admit to pollsters. That now truer than ever. it's happened again"

[TightEnd]

h Paul Krugman is a leftie nobel prize winning economist

he's optimistic

(end to global free trade etc)

"We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight"

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

the eminent historian Simon Schama chimed in on this

"Simon Schama ‏@simon_schama  4h4 hours ago

exactly... moronic sociopath begins trade war, explodes the deficit; but that's OK as he's going to Build the Wall"