The Next President of the United States

[DMorgan]

Really appreciate everyones posts on this thread, especially MinTrav - keep them coming please.

+1, makes very interesting reading

[MintTrav]

thank you

i see some chatter that people are backing Bush for GOP at fancy prices

very well funded, Cruz a god botherer, Rubio poor performance recently, eventually the field has to unite behind a non-trump candidate

is that something realistic?

I would say it's realistic. I have no idea who will win. Clinton's team thinks it will be Trump. I would say it is down to four, as Kasich can't fund a winning campaign, but any of the four could win, even Bush. One thing certain is that it is going to be a very long campaign and we may not know the candidate until June.

Cruz may be a God-botherer, but there are a lot of God-botherers in America and a lot of them vote Republican and he should have a free run at the God-bothering vote when Carson joins Huckabee and Santorum on the bench. And there is a hell of a lot more to Cruz than that. In some regards he is one of the most impressive candidates ever. Of course, in others, he is a terrible candidate, but he can't be dismissed as just a religious nut. This is the lawyer who won more cases at the Supreme Court than anyone in history.

Rubio is in a bizarre situation. Christie really skewered him and everyone is watching him now for examples of repetition and planned soundbites. This is pretty unfair, as that's what all of them do all the time. You will hear what is essentially the same speech repeated many times by all of them, which they would say is just reinforcing the points they want to get across. And they will use prepared soundbites all the time. Even Christie's attack on Rubio was itself a prepared speech/soundbite. But Rubio can't now do what the rest of them can. Any time he re-uses a line, it will be held up as an example of his 'programming'. It is likely that the media care more about it than the voters, but donors may not like it. The clip from Saturday could become his 'Oops Moment', when it all started to go wrong, or it might blow over.

Bush could come through. He is the only candidate (apart from Kasich) that most of us would think says a lot of sensible stuff. To my mind, their views are the closest thing the US has to the Conservative Party. Once it comes to the general election, he has a better chance of picking up Independent support than Cruz or Rubio.

We may get to a four-way race, with Trump picking up the populist vote, Cruz and Rubio sharing the conservatives and Bush getting the moderates. Something would have to give between Cruz and Rubio, leaving three runners collecting about a third each from three parts of the party. Who knows what would happen then? If you are getting good odds on Bush, it could be worth a shot.

[TightEnd]

is the vast majority of what Sanders wants impossible while Ryan is speaker?

If Obama think he had problems with Republican houses...

[MintTrav]

is the vast majority of what Sanders wants impossible while Ryan is speaker?

If Obama think he had problems with Republican houses...

Yeah, true. The Republicans could lose their majority, though. The Senate is definitely up for grabs but, especially if Cruz is the candidate, there is a possibility of the electorate becoming so alienated that the House could fall to the Democrats as well. Assuming that doesn't happen, it will be tough (though the same would apply to Hillary). Even if the Democrats did manage to take the House, he might be in a Corbyn situation, with popular support but a lot of his own side not agreeing with what he wants to do.

[neeko]

I thought it was nearly impossible for the dems to win the house as the republicans had gerrymandered the districts to the point where they win every time now.

[MintTrav]

I thought it was nearly impossible for the dems to win the house as the republicans had gerrymandered the districts to the point where they win every time now.

Well it's possible but, yeah, highly unlikely.

[MintTrav]

This ad is going to haunt Trump. It shows numerous examples of the liberal or moderate positions he had taken over the years and is designed to alienate conservative voters. He has since changed his position on some of these issues and he clarified his position on others in his book, but some of the clips shown are very recent. The views he expresses seem very rational in most cases, bu that won't do him any good.

The ad has been put out, not by arch-conservatIves, but by Mitt Romney's Deputy Campaign Director from the last election, ie it has come from the mainstream in a blatant establishment attempt to damage him.

[neeko]

Robert Costa of the Washington post tweeting that Fiorina will quit later today, Sky saying that Cristie will as well.

[Poacky3s]

Robert Costa of the Washington post tweeting that Fiorina will quit later today, Sky saying that Cristie will as well.

Sure I caught on the news earlier that Cristie has pulled out now. Trump done a lot better than most thought he would in yesterdays vote and Rubio got hammered as well, still early days but it's looking like the unthinkable could actually happen...

[MintTrav]

Click to see full-size image.

[MintTrav]

Rubio will be glad to see Christie go. Christie has been prodding him for quite a while and kept calling him "The Boy in the Bubble", due to Rubio's reluctance to engage in free-rolling Town Hall discussions, rather than just set-piece debates. It was known all last week that Christie was planning an assault on Rubio at the debate, though the specific content wasn't known. The irony of Christie attacking Rubio for delivering and repeating prepared sound-bites, by delivering and repeating a prepared sound-bite of his own, seems to have been lost.

There are discussions on the web about whether Christie was only there as Jeb!'s wing-man to take down Rubio. Some saying that the establishment is annoyed, as he was supposed to stay in longer, but he had had enough. Who knows - there might be some truth or it could all be nonsense.

Some woman dropped out too, which was a bit of a surprise as most people thought she had already dropped out before Christmas.

Notice how they "suspend" their campaigns. If they terminate them, they have to return any unused donations, or give them to charity and it all gets a bit awkward. By suspending the campaign, it is still alive and they can pay off bills and run down the organization more smoothly. They can also re-enter quite easily if they change their minds or circumstances change, which has happened before. Ross Perot and Gary Hart both did it (there may be others who I haven't thought of) and there have been rumours of Jim Webb re-entering this time.

[MintTrav]

So Sanders received 60% of the votes in NH to Clinton's 38%. Therefore he will receive 15 delegates from the State, while Clinton will have.......15 delegates.

The reason is super-delegates. Clinton picked up 9 delegates from the voters, but she had already banked all 6 of the State's super-delegates. These are generally local elected officials and so on. The voted delegates are supposed to vote at the Convention according to the State vote, but the super-delegates can vote for whoever they like. Across the country, Clinton has about 360 super-delegates already on her side. Sanders has 8. No two ways about it - it is another method by which the establishment keeps a lid on uppity mavericks and stops them making populist power-grabs.

[TightEnd]

The Clinton-Sanders death spiral. Can either win without turning off the white voters they need for the general

http://bit.ly/1O3ujLo

[TightEnd]

Jeb has spent almost $100m so far. Got 3% in IA and 11% in NH. But magically he'll beat Trump if he gets it 1-on-1?

http://53eig.ht/1We9V0e

[MintTrav]

Last word on Christie.

He really is unpopular in his home State of New Jersey. The comments section in this NJ site really gIves it to him.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/what_theyre_saying_about_chris_christies_really_ba.html