The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

I don't know what Gary Johnson is thinking of. He has such an opportunity this year, which previous third-party candidates never had. Both main-party candidates have serious weaknesses and are reviled by many. A lot of voters hate both of them and are looking for someone else to vote for. Unlike some past occasions, the Libertarian Party has real politicians representing it this time. Not only that, but they have held office and how to run a State, make real-life big decisions, etc. Johnson is a former Republican and was Governor of New Mexico for two terms, ie he performed well enough at it to be re-elected. His running mate is Bill Weld, another ex-Republican and another two-term Governor (Massachusetts). A dream-team for the Libertarians. They have been polling at 9-10%, touching 12% at one point, and  constantly look like they are on the verge of a major increase, if one of the others screws up.

So what does he do? This.



That was a few days ago.

Now he has said that space colonisation is the answer to global warming and it has received a lot of coverage.

Why do they do these things?

[Marky147]

Think he was on Rogan a while back, but haven't watched it.

I might do now, lol.

[nirvana]

It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

You can basically see the other guy give up in the background, excellent stuff

Pretty epic usage of 'the other guy'

[Rexas]

Do you think this has anything to do with Trump? He seems to be trying to drag everyone into behaving like children, and everyone seems to want to outdo him. Wonder if we should ask Johnson how that's going for him?

[DaveShoelace]

Do you think this has anything to do with Trump? He seems to be trying to drag everyone into behaving like children, and everyone seems to want to outdo him. Wonder if we should ask Johnson how that's going for him?

I think he has just given up to be honest (Johnson). He was coming across really well a few months ago and seemed like a sensible voice in all this mess.

Maybe it's just the nature of the Libertarians in general. I'd largely consider myself a Libertarian and would 100% vote for them if I was a yank (I'd still vote for him now but mostly as a protest vote). Almost every long form interview I have seen with Libertarians is 90% me agreeing with some very sensible ideas then raising my eye for the last 10% because they have just said or done something batshit crazy.

Case in point, this actually happened at the Libertarian Conference this year:

Click to see full-size image.

[Pinchop73]

Such a shame

[Rexas]

Best place to watch the action tonight (don't have sky, just standard freeview but obviously have the internet).

[Pinchop73]

Channel 4?

[DaveShoelace]

Best place to watch the action tonight (don't have sky, just standard freeview but obviously have the internet).

http://news.sky.com/watch-live

The Beeb news channel too

[Rexas]

Cheers guys (meant best in terms of coverage and analysis etc as well as where to actually watch it)

[Pinchop73]

CNN or MSNBC probs best for you, will have the biggest Clinton slant.

Don't tune in to Fox, you'll get triggered

[MintTrav]

All the commentators seem agreed on a few things. First, that Clinton has been preparing hard for the last couple of weeks and will know everything about everything. Also, she has prepared for two Trumps, the bombastic one and the respectful one.

It also seems to be common knowledge that Trump hasn't done the same preparation. He hasn't bothered with the usual mock-debates with stand-ins that everyone does (and she has). Apparently, he has been meeting each Sunday with a small group, concentrating more on his approach than on facts. You will also hear everywhere that he has a lower bar to clear as expectations are lower for him, so he just has to avoid throwing a wobbly to pass. It's all about being seen as Presidential by the US public. Polls this week show that still only 41% think he is qualified to be President and only 35% think he has the required temperament. There have been leaks that she is going to try to make him lose his cool and he has to avoid doing so. Kellyanne says that he is going to be respectful and 'nice'.

There seems to be general agreement on that much, though both sides have been putting out misinformation, so I don't know how much is true.

There was also a story that he has been studying her body language in previous debates and has learnt her tells regarding when she is uncomfortable with an answer, so he can attack when he sees that. Pinch of salt time, maybe.

The truth is that these debates don't usually change much and whatever movement there is in the polls afterwards usually rolls back after a period, unless the debate is less than a week before the election. The main things that stick are screw-ups and zingers. Zingers are the prepared killer responses to things that the other guy may say - usually have to be a bit humorous and look off-the-cuff to work well. Kellyanne has reminded us that Hillary tried a few in 08 against Obama that fell flat as they weren't that funny and "the message has to match the messenger and the delivery style".

Trump has never debated one-on-one before, whereas Clinton is an old hand at it. He may find it a disadvantage to have to be involved all the time, compared with the crowded Primary debates where he could pick his time to strike. The lack of preparation and mock-debate practice may also show.

[MintTrav]

Daniel Negreanu gives his view of what they should do in the debate.

Apparently, he has changed his nationality so he can vote in the election.

The comparisons with poker may seem like a silly approach, but he makes some surprisingly good points.

https://www.wired.com/2016/09/poker-pros-debate-strategy-clinton-trump/

[The Camel]

Some props on tonight's debate

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2016-presidential-election-betting-trump-vs-clinton-debate-props/

[MintTrav]

Philippe Reines playing the part of Trump in the Clinton mock debates.

Apparently he has been pretty nasty, dishing questions about Monica Lewinsky, email servers,  Benghazi, etc.

Click to see full-size image.