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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 449972 times)
MintTrav
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« Reply #45 on: December 18, 2015, 06:26:16 PM »

An example of how being the front-runner can mean nothing.

Rick Perry had a Trump-like lead the last time and looked destined for the nomination until this happened - what became known as his 'Oops Moment'.

His figures went into free-fall and he never recovered.

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« Reply #46 on: December 18, 2015, 06:32:17 PM »

Very interesting, Mr Trav. Thank you for that.

This birthright issue, I thought you couldn't be president unless you were born in the USA? How is Cruz even running, in that case?

Calling Christie a moderate and sensible is what defines this whole saga for me.

Good thread, this.  

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RickBFA
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« Reply #47 on: December 18, 2015, 07:02:39 PM »

Yes, thank you MintTrav.

Really interesting and educational for me.

It will be fascinating to see how it plays out.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #48 on: December 18, 2015, 07:08:24 PM »

Excellent post John

what got you interested in USpolitics in the first place?
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MintTrav
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« Reply #49 on: December 18, 2015, 08:52:30 PM »

This birthright issue, I thought you couldn't be president unless you were born in the USA? How is Cruz even running, in that case?

His mother is American. A lot of people have questioned it, but he seems to be in the clear, though there is a suspicion that Trump will go there if he has to.

what got you interested in USpolitics in the first place?

Watching the 1988 caucuses and primaries on CNN, as the Democrats searched for a candidate who could challenge Bush Snr. Gary Hart was the big favourite until he was caught having a close friendship with Donna Rice. They were left in the mud as the rest of the field was seen as weak and were labelled the Seven Dwarfs - Joe Biden, Bruce Babbitt, Al Gore, Dick Gephart, Paul Simon, Michael Dukakis, Jesse Jackson. Simon and Jackson were unelectable, but the rest actually comprised a strong field, though some of them hadn't yet reached the level of recognition they would go on to. Even Gore, who was only 39, had a wealth of experience under his belt.

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AndrewT
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« Reply #50 on: December 18, 2015, 10:00:09 PM »

It's like one of those logic questions.

Tal is to Strictly as MintTrav is to US politics.

Lovely work John.
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Marky147
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« Reply #51 on: December 18, 2015, 10:10:14 PM »

Very interesting reading.

Thanks for taking the time to post it.
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neeko
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« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2015, 11:16:18 PM »

V nice, ty.

How do you think the votes of the democratic states, Cali, NY etc (republicans who vote in those states but who are democrat relative to those in Alabama or Mississippi) will affect the race - will they all go for Rubio/ Bush / Christie and invalidate this phoney war that has been going on so far. (There are more republican delegates in these states than the firebrand ones)
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MintTrav
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« Reply #53 on: December 19, 2015, 02:45:53 AM »

How do you think the votes of the democratic states, Cali, NY etc (republicans who vote in those states but who are democrat relative to those in Alabama or Mississippi) will affect the race - will they all go for Rubio/ Bush / Christie and invalidate this phoney war that has been going on so far. (There are more republican delegates in these states than the firebrand ones)

That's a helluva question. I think you're right that they would tend towards the more moderate candidates. California has usually been irrelevant, as it is all decided by then, though maybe that won't be the case this time, but certainly States like Massachusetts and Ohio would be expected to be good for the moderates.

New Hampshire is make or break for the likes of Christie, Graham, Pataki and Kasich. Probably one will survive out of those. Whoever it is should have a good shot at New York, especially Pataki, who was Governor there for three terms. We should also have seen the end of Santorum, Huckabee and maybe Rand by then. Most of the Southern States are front-loaded in early March and Cruz needs to win delegates then, as they could dry up for him after that.

A lot depends on who drops out when. If we get to a point where either the 'moderates' or the 'conservatives' are reduced to one or two while the other strand still has about four candidates, the group with the fewer candidates should have an advantage as their votes will be less dispersed. If the establishment can decide between Bush and Rubio at an early stage, so one of them gets a clear run, they might do much better than the current numbers indicate. On the other hand, if Cruz can oust Trump while Bush, Rubio and maybe even Christie are still in, he could over-achieve in the moderate States.

Some of the States are winner-takes-all and some are proportionate (and some are proportionate with a variety of adjustments). In this strange year, how dispersed or concentrated a candidates' supporters are may affect the outcome. Taking a winner-takes-all State is always good as you take some of your opponents' delegates, but over-winning it by a high percentage could mean that your delegate count doesn't reflect your national polling rate.

What do you think?

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« Reply #54 on: December 19, 2015, 09:54:28 AM »


Good Posts Mint ty


On a more mundane note

30% of GOP voters support bombing Agrabah, the city from Aladdin

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/18/republican-voters-bomb-agrabah-disney-aladdin-donald-trump

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« Reply #55 on: December 19, 2015, 10:46:26 AM »

An example of how being the front-runner can mean nothing.

Rick Perry had a Trump-like lead the last time and looked destined for the nomination until this happened - what became known as his 'Oops Moment'.

His figures went into free-fall and he never recovered.



Wonderful write up Mint, thank you.

That You Tube clip is barely believable.
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« Reply #56 on: December 19, 2015, 11:23:10 AM »

i doubt trump can have one of those moments.

some politicians are immune from them as they don't build their appeal on slick, outward political professionalism. quite the opposite, their appeal lies in firmly being against such values.

boris, nigel, donald.

they can drop clangers and appear more like the rest of us, say controversial things and people will thank them for saying what other are thinking but daren't say.

their slips and controversial speeches are seen as common touches and acts of bravery respectively
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MintTrav
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« Reply #57 on: December 19, 2015, 02:01:28 PM »

I think there's a lot of truth in that. Trump has already said a lot of things that would have finished a normal candidate.

Here's another frontrunner who threw away years of work in a moment. In 2004 Howard Dean was miles ahead for the Democratic nomination and John Kerry was pretty much dead. After a better-than-expected result in Iowa, Dean had a Kinnock moment and went mental. He became a laughing stock and his support collapsed.

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« Reply #58 on: December 19, 2015, 03:58:22 PM »

Thanks, that was a great response - gonna stay interested in this now I think
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MintTrav
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« Reply #59 on: December 19, 2015, 10:27:41 PM »

It's the third Democrat debate tonight. They are only having six, with three of them on Saturdays, with this one obviously being on the Saturday before Christmas. It's widely believed that the Democratic National Committee is trying to smooth Clinton's path by holding the debates when fewer people will be watching, reducing her exposure.

In contrast with the Republicans, who can't fit all their candidates on the stage at the same time, the Democrats are three-handed already - Clinton, Sanders and O'Malley.

The Sanders campaign has focused on economic issues, but foreign affairs will undoubtedly feature heavily this time. There are major differences between them here, as Clinton is quite a hawk, whereas Sanders has a reputation for being anti-war, though he has sometimes supported military action.

There was a major crisis during the week, when the Sanders campaign's access to the DNC voter database was suspended due to misuse, namely accessing Clinton's data. The person responsible said he had discovered a security problem and was just investigating to see to what extent Sanders was exposed. He was sacked, but the DNC decided to deny Sanders access to the shared database in punishment. Sanders said he was suing the DNC, but today they have reversed their decision.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2015, 10:58:35 PM by MintTrav » Logged
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