The Next President of the United States

[DMorgan]

Any chance that if he starts backpedaling and losing public support then the republican establishment can get the knives out and maybe unseat him as the nominee?

[MintTrav]

Any chance that if he starts backpedaling and losing public support then the republican establishment can get the knives out and maybe unseat him as the nominee?

Wouldn't they love that? Their main concern isn't losing the Presidency - they are expecting that (and many of them wanting it). They are more worried that a lot of Republican voters will stay home and the coattails effect will be diminished. There is a serious danger that they will suffer in the elections for Senators, Representatives and Governors, extending down to the races for Mayors, Sheriffs and so on. Reverse coattails is more likely, ie voters who turn out in large numbers to support marquee names like McCain and Rubio may give Trump a vote while they are there. The Republican establishment would love to insert almost anyone except Cruz instead of Trump.

Seemingly, it is a possibility. The later it goes, the harder it gets as various States' cutoff dates pass, but it seems there would still be ways around it. I read something earlier where they were discussing who could replace him. There was a view that it would be easiest if Mike Pence were to step up, already being on the ticket, which might get around some of the regs, but that was discounted. It could be anyone, but would probably be someone who ran and went deep, most likely Cruz or Kasich. Having said that, though possible, it is very unlikely to happen.

[muckthenuts]

Trump's backpedalling doesn't seem like a great tactic to me! I've always felt he was best off maintaining his hardline approach and hope Americans would spring a surprise come election day, similar to how the UK did with Brexit. Given the unforgettable tosh he came out with during the primaries no matter what he does he's surely not going to pick up many votes from the center. I'm no Trump supporter but his very cordial behaviour with the Mexican president today was a far cry from what his followers thought they would be getting if they got Trump in charge.

[Ledders]

lol this wall stuff is incred

[MintTrav]

So, where does he stand? The speech was indisputably hard-line, the emphasis being on securing the border and rounding up illegals who have committed crimes.

A week ago, Trump used the words 'softening' and 'humane' and posed the question of what should happen with long-term illegals who are otherwise upstanding:



He didn't address that question at all last night, so his position on it remains unclarified though, by raising the question, he is inviting us to assume he will take a softer line with them.

This speech was delayed for a week amid reports that his team was wrestling with the decision of how it should be pitched. It seems reminiscent of Boris on Brexit, with the position being based on what is thought will work best with voters, rather than principles that the candidate believes in.

In the end, the decision seems to have been to maintain the hard-line stance as much as possible, but with some possible softening still to come. The speech was plenty tough enough to keep the mob on board, without closing off options that might be more attractive to independents or moderate Republicans.

[MintTrav]

We are likely to see the FBI releasing emails of Hillary's in the run-up to the election (and after). How damaging they are isn't known though some will, no doubt, pick up on any potentially-embarrassing aspects while others will say that the FBI should have tried for a prosecution.

In the meantime, WikiLeaks has documents relating to Hillary Clinton, which it is going to release in an "October Surprise". Based on Assange's lack of excitement, there may not be anything too detrimental.




Later in the interview, Kelly asked Assange why he hasn't released anything on Trump. "If we have good information on Trump, we publish that........... It's really hard for us to release anything worse that what comes out of Donald Trump's mouth every second day".

[DMorgan]

I think I know the 'undisclosed location' that he's speaking to them from

[MintTrav]

Presidential Debates Schedule

First presidential debate (September 26, 2016, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)
The debate will be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on major topics to be selected by the moderator and announced at least one week before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. Candidates will then have an opportunity to respond to each other. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 4, 2016, Longwood University, Farmville, VA)
The debate will be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.

Second presidential debate (October 9, 2016, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO)
The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which half of the questions will be posed directly by citizen participants and the other half will be posed by the moderator based on topics of broad public interest as reflected in social media and other sources. The candidates will have two minutes to respond and there will be an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate further discussion. The town meeting participants will be uncommitted voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 19, 2016, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV)
The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate.

http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=2016debates


Unlike the party debates, which were run and broadcast by individual TV companies, the Presidential debates are run by the Commission on Presidential Debates and will be shown live on all major networks. Candidates need to be polling at 15% to be invited, so the Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, stuck on 9% and 4%, ain't gonna make it. One of the first and third is likely to focus on foreign affairs and the other on domestic policy. Each debate will have a single moderator and will run from 9-10.30pm Eastern Time (2-3.30am in the UK).

[MintTrav]

Before all that, Clinton and Trump have agreed to take part in a “commander-in-chief forum” devoted to national security, military affairs and veterans issues.

They will appear on the same stage, but not at the same time, next week (7 Sept) in New York at an event sponsored by the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America and broadcast live on NBC and MSNBC.

I would think it unlikely there would be any more forums, but I have been wrong before in this election.

[Marky147]

Cheers for all your work here, MintTrav.

Been a hugely informative and entertaining read.

If they ever get another Blonde Bash sorted, dinner is on me.

[MintTrav]

Just hours after his hard-hitting speech, Trump was again pushing the 'softening' line.

"I want to get the gang members out, the drug peddlers out, I want to get the drug dealers out. We’ve got a lot of people in this country that you can’t have, and those people we’ll get out. And then we’re going to make a decision at a later date once everything is stabilized. I think you’re going to see there’s really quite a bit of softening."

They are clearly trying to have it both ways, branding the same product differently to two distinct market segments. They seem to be having difficulty summarising the position in a snappy way, though, so Trump is having to struggle through these long-winded contortions. It would benefit them hugely if they could find some neat catch-phrases to wrap up the concept. Maybe they should employ Laura Ingraham, who seems to have summarised his position more succinctly "If you’re arrested for a crime, you can’t stay in the country. But the idea that you’re gonna just run around with vans and throw fruit-pickers into the back of the vans, that’s not gonna happen."


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-will-soften-on-immigration-227636

[MintTrav]

Good old Donald. He has made the Daily Fascist grovel. I won't hear another word against him.


"Melania Trump is suing a British newspaper and a US blogger for $150m (£114m) over allegations she was a sex worker in the 1990s, her lawyer says..........."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37253025

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3769798/Melania-Trump-retraction.html

[DMorgan]

Just watched the first episode of 'Race To The White House' on Netflix which was about the Bush Snr vs Dukakis election in 1988

House of Cards really doesn't seem like that much of a dramatisation!

[TightEnd]

its getting closer again

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

interesting read

The Gift of Clinton http://nyti.ms/2cnzqgW   "joyless slog"