The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

The Senate race is more interesting. The Democrats need to take four seats to take control.

There are 34 seats up this year, and 23 of those are dead safe for the incumbents.

Of the 11 competitive seats, Arizona (McCain), Florida (Rubio) and Ohio ain't changing this time.

The Democrats should win back seats they have previously held, but lost, in Wisconsin and Illinois, where Tammy Duckworth is nailed on for Obama's old seat. Duckworth, who was born in Thailand, lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot in Iraq.


That leaves six seats that are toss-ups. The Democrats currently hold one of them (Nevada), but are behind there, so may need to win thtee of the other five Republican-held seats (Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina). It looks like they are slightly ahead in Indiana but slightly behind in NH, NC and Missouri, with Penn on a knife-edge.

It will be very close but the more Trump fecks up, the more it helps the Democrats inch towards control. If Clinton's advantage turns into a rout, they are likely to get there, but they may get there anyway.

[TightEnd]

Life after Trump: Republicans brace for betrayal and civil war after 2016

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/15/republican-party-after-donald-trump-paul-ryan?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476541122

[bergeroo]

Everyone agrees Clinton is going to win - and they are pretty tightly bunched on the predicted number of college votes.

I've been looking for something to bet on. This one got me interested!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-college-votes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-college-votes

[TightEnd]

!

Fans walk out of Amy Schumer show after she calls Trump a 'monster'

Around 200 people booed and then left a live show in Tampa, Florida, after the comic criticized the Republican presidential candidate

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2016/oct/17/amy-schumer-donald-trump-walkout-tampa-florida?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476722615

[TightEnd]

Americans trust Republicans on a bunch of key issues. They just don't trust Trump.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-republicans-issues_us_5804bc2ee4b06e047595a03a?7kx4j9k9




given clinton's unpopularity and issues, do you not think the republicans could have put up almost anyone but Trump and have had a fighting chance of winning this?

[MintTrav]

Not sure what's going on with Utah. Following the previous very close poll, two came out with a decent lead for Trump, but today there is a new one which is shows the race wide open:

	12 Oct	13 Oct	16 Oct	17 Oct
	Y2	Monmouth	CBS/YouGov	Rasmussen
Trump	26%	34%	37%	30%
Clinton	26%	28%	20%	28%
McMullin	22%	20%	20%	29%
Johnson	14%	9%	7%	5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/utah/election_2016_utah_president

Whichever is right, it looks like Utah is in play. Four polls have shown McMullin at 20% or more and two have essentially been three-way ties. This is not supposed to be a battleground State - Trump may lose a State where the Governor, both Senators and all four Representatives are Republicans (admittedly, most of them have disowned him). McMullin has managed to focus the non-mainstream support, with Johnson dropping back. Utah is now, unexpectedly, one of the most difficult to predict.


FiveThirtyEight recently did a piece on how McMullin might become President. In a nutshell, it depends on neither side being able to muster 270 votes if he wins Utah, so the decision passing to the House (the top three names are eligible), and both sides there preferring him to the alternative option (including some Republicans refusing to back Trump). http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

[Pinchop73]

Stinks

[MintTrav]

Fascinating (though I thought the parts with the conspiracy-style presentation were a bit silly).

Since yesterday's video, Scott Foval has been sacked and James O'Keefe's booked appearance on Hannity's show has been cancelled by Fox. I don't think these videos would have changed anyone's vote as they are too far removed from the candidate, but it seems odd that they waited til the election was lost to release them. Gives Trump something concrete for tomorrow night though.

They are claiming that YouTube is suppressing the video in the US on the grounds that, apparently, it is trending in the UK but not over there. Another one came out today:

[DaveShoelace]

The view count has been locked on both videos, haven't budged in two hours.

[MintTrav]

The election is being rigged, says Trump.

That's a pile of crap, said Rubio last night (I paraphrase).



Amusing to see his opponent trying to associate him with Trump, even though Rubio has done everything he can to keep Donald at a distance, including refusing to appear with him when they have been in the same part of Florida.

[MintTrav]

Major proposals from Trump to shake up Washington:

Click to see full-size image.

There may be pros and cons to be discussed and details to be finessed, but most of those are probably improvements, and should have been addressed before now.

Trump has now added another item - term limits for all members of Congress, six years for members of the House and 12 years for members of the Senate. This is likely to be popular, but seems to be very short-sighted - repeatedly churning all the experienced Congressmen and losing all the accumulated knowledge. The effect would be to increase the influence of the lobbyists he wants to control, as one of their sources of power is that they are in the best position to advise new inexperienced Congressmen on procedures, legislation, etc. It's a waste of effort, anyway - the chances of Congress agreeing to it are zero.

[TightEnd]

Michael Moore to release surprise Donald Trump documentary

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/oct/18/michael-moore-surprise-donald-trump-documentary?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476807915

[TightEnd]

Why do people dislike Hillary Clinton? The story goes far back

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/18/hillary-clinton-why-hate-unlikeable-us-election?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476789582

[MintTrav]

Can't be good when one of your main allies is calling you stupid.

Newt was one of Trump's final three for VP, with Christie and Pence. He's speaking more freely these days, first calling Trump pathetic on Fox for fighting with Ryan instead of Clinton:



and now this:

[hector62]

Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.