The Next President of the United States

[Marky147]

Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

First Husband, in 2024

[RED-DOG]

Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

First Husband, in 2024

Assuming America still exists.

[DaveShoelace]

Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

The usual next job is to start doing speeches for $1 million a pop for all the people who have you campaign donations over the years.

[Marky147]

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.

[MintTrav]

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.

Sounds good, but I would give the credit to the production team for making him come across better, cos this video is full of the lies and semi-truths typical of his whole disgraceful campaign. I would concede that there is massive interdependency between big business and politics and the Clintons are enmeshed in all that. But I believe they are trying to improve the USA and the world and have done a decent job of it so far. To get anything done requires a compromise, with others and with your own beliefs, and as soon as you do that, you leave the door open for opportunists like Trump to take easy and nasty swipes at you. The alternative, though, is not making any progress. Bill Clinton has been Compromiser-in-Chief, leaving many opportunities for attack, but look at what he has achieved for the world.

[MintTrav]

Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

Drop off the radar? In the past, yeah, they were mostly done by the time they left the WH, but I have to stand up for Carter and Clinton, who have, arguably, had more impact since they left office.

Jimmy Carter has achieved so much post-Presidency, particularly focusing on the arreas of peace and disease. The Middle East might be the first area to come to mind, but he has been involved in creating peace in many other regions. He works a lot with The Elders now, but he was doing it anyway himself. At the same time, he has achieved lots in disease eradication, with one disease in particular being almost entirely eliminated.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Center

Bill Clinton is involved in everything. The Clinton Foundation and its several subsidiaries, most notably the Clinton Global Initiative, is one of the most significant charities in the world, mainly in development and healthcare, and it has some involvement in climate change. If nothing else, I believe it carries out more treatments/inoculations for malaria and HIV than any other group in the world and has done a huge amount of work in Haiti, but also numerous other countries. 

https://www.clintonfoundation.org/about

Apart from that, he is still immersed in world politics. Just as an example, he seems to have been the one who persuaded Greece not to Grexit and to accept the German austerity proposal. It was supposed to be all about the EU/Euro but apparently the White House got involved and sub-contracted the job to Bill. Did you see the WiliLeaks release last week where Podesta emailed to ask if WJC would call Tsipras to get him on board? Apparently, Bill made the call and Tsipras signed the agreement a couple of days later.

[hector62]

Why didn't Cameron enlist him to help win the vote here? Was Cameron so arrogant that he thought he didn't need help, or bother to explain the pros to the electorate?

[TightEnd]

another good one

[Marky147]

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.

Sounds good, but I would give the credit to the production team for making him come across better, cos this video is full of the lies and semi-truths typical of his whole disgraceful campaign. I would concede that there is massive interdependency between big business and politics and the Clintons are enmeshed in all that. But I believe they are trying to improve the USA and the world and have done a decent job of it so far. To get anything done requires a compromise, with others and with your own beliefs, and as soon as you do that, you leave the door open for opportunists like Trump to take easy and nasty swipes at you. The alternative, though, is not making any progress. Bill Clinton has been Compromiser-in-Chief, leaving many opportunities for attack, but look at what he has achieved for the world.

Of course. I was just trying to post something for balance, as I post enough against him and his views. Think it was put together by whoever uploaded it to Youtube, and maybe he should get them on board for the final few weeks

[MintTrav]

Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

The Obamas won't be broke leaving the White House, as some previous Presidents have been. He is known to have received more than $15m from his previous books while he has been in office, and is contracted for at least one more. Bill C got $10m advance for his memoirs twenty years ago, so he should top that. No doubt there will be a Presidential Library.

Obama hasn't made it clear what he'll be doing in the longer term, and may not know himself. He has said that they both intend to spend their lives working to help others, but that could mean anything. He intends to continue working with his charity for young black men and Michelle is going to continue her work for girls' education.

The one project he has announced is working to ungerrymander the State legislatures, Governerships and Congress (which are all tilted in Republicans' favour) to give Democrat candidates a fair shot. It seems he is going to work through the States, which will take a few years and looks like a substantial amount of work and, tbh, I wouldn't have thought it was the best use of his skills/opportunity/contacts. I don't understand why he wouldn't leave that kind of thing to others and spend his time on bigger world issues. I assume he will be drawn into such matters anyway - Hillary has said she is going to use him and he is the first President for almost 100 years to continue living in Washington afterwards.

Click to see full-size image.

The Obamas' new home

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607923/Obamas-choose-salubrious-suburb-Karolama-DC-post-White-House-home-remain-close-Sasha-s-High-School.html

[TightEnd]

Donald Trump’s slimming odds of victory http://econ.st/2f9z80G

Click to see full-size image.

[AndrewT]

Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)

[The Camel]

Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)

Tory majority and Brexit were both bigger odds than Trump is now and they both prevailed.

I don't trust polls any more.

I think this could be very very close. And if Hillary does win, it will mostly be due to Trump losing a lot of female votes in the last couple of weeks.

[MintTrav]

This vote should be a bit more predictable than the others mentioned due to early voting, either mail-in or in person. It had been expected that about 40% of votes would be cast before 8 Nov, but the counties have been surprised at the numbers so far and have been caught short on resources, with people queueing for 5-6 hours in parts of Georgia and Texas. Three States are entirely mail-in - ie no voting on the day.

I don't think any States give details of how many votes each candidate has had so far, but several publish running totals of how many registered voters of each party have voted. Clinton has been doing surprisingly well in Texas and more Dems than Reps have voted so far in Arizona and North Carolina. Ohio doesn't give the same detail, but requests for ballots are down 10% from Black voters in the State compared with 2012, and up 3% from Whites, which augers well for Trump. He is also ahead in Florida, though not as much as Romney and McCain were at the same stage, and they both lost the State. But Hillary isn't Obama, so make of that what you will. No landslide detected so far, but the turnout should be high.  

[Doobs]

Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)

Tory majority and Brexit were both bigger odds than Trump is now and they both prevailed.

I don't trust polls any more.

I think this could be very very close. And if Hillary does win, it will mostly be due to Trump losing a lot of female votes in the last couple of weeks.

In the month leading up to Brexit, Brexit was leading in most of the polls (circa 80% up until Jo Cox's death from memory).  It was only her death thay gave false hope.  Even then the swing had started to reverse with 2 of the last 6 polls giving a Brexit victory.

In the election, the conservatives were strong favourites to win, and it was only the absolute majority that was a surprise (outside leftie twitter anyway).  Admittedly the polls weren't great, but isn't it only 4 or 5% from a labour win to a conservative landslide?  Though maybe this has changed with the SNP landslide in Scotland.  And FWIW the BBC exit poll was spot on from memory, but people just didn't believe it for a few hours.