My opinion is this...
CO is good, obv this is tough when you're in a live MTT but guessing the villains ranges is the key factor here IMO.
My guess was he was opening something like this..
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo and IMO that's still pretty tight but w/e the BB is short and all that jazz so some people don't like raising too wide.
Hero is me.
My thoughts at the time we're that it's a really good spot to go after Villain 3's stack and I estimated that Villain 1 being a good aggressive player would realise his range plays extremely well vs Villain 3's 4BB all in range which will be SUPER wide and look to ISO him close to 100% with Hero's and Villain 2's Dead money when we fold making his price even better.
Now if people think this range is a mistake and if indeed Villain 1 doesn't see the hand like I would and isn't looking to ISO the BB VERY wide, this jam will obviously become less and less good.
I think 77 is going to show a reasonable chip EV profit as a jam here and I'm basically just looking to exploit Villain 1's intention to ISO Villain 3's stack very wide.
Even with the price he's getting he's not going to call off that whole range and will fold a reasonable amount of the time.
Guessing he will call off like 22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo
And if he does go with this range 77 plays fine vs this calling range (49.82%equity), which will include some hands we even dominate and the vast majority of hands we Flip vs. Also we are netting a very profitable situation when he folds and we go heads up vs Villain 3.
Finally Villain 2 may call off sometimes but my estimation at the time would be anything that crushes 77 in his range barring
or maybe 99??? would 3bet pre. So I wasn't worried about him. Because that's a very small portion of his range.
I would love to hear people's feedback on this if you think any of my estimations on villains ranges or my calculations are wrong or if you see any error in my logic maybe? Thanks peeps.
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