Maths question ?

[bookiebasher]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Oh no , that's going to get me really involved and I am slightly drunk at present so will investigate

 " three sigma events "  in the morning.

Come on then , probability , anyone ? 1000-1 , 5000-1 ?

Where's Woodsey when you need him ?

Funnily enough I'm out of the office this week and at least a couple of sheets to the wind already 😄

DTD , cash game later ? , go on , you know you want to .

[Woodsey]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Oh no , that's going to get me really involved and I am slightly drunk at present so will investigate

 " three sigma events "  in the morning.

Come on then , probability , anyone ? 1000-1 , 5000-1 ?

Where's Woodsey when you need him ?

Funnily enough I'm out of the office this week and at least a couple of sheets to the wind already 😄

DTD , cash game later ? , go on , you know you want to .

In the Isle of Wight currently mate, otherwise yes 

[bookiebasher]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Oh no , that's going to get me really involved and I am slightly drunk at present so will investigate

 " three sigma events "  in the morning.

Come on then , probability , anyone ? 1000-1 , 5000-1 ?

Where's Woodsey when you need him ?

Funnily enough I'm out of the office this week and at least a couple of sheets to the wind already 😄

DTD , cash game later ? , go on , you know you want to .

In the Isle of Wight currently mate, otherwise yes 

Poor excuse

[DMorgan]

Hey no worries Darren , thanks for your input , much appreciated . Will make it a £1 next time I post 

Its Dan but no worries

0.2% makes it a 500-1 shot

[bookiebasher]

Hey no worries Darren , thanks for your input , much appreciated . Will make it a £1 next time I post 

Its Dan but no worries

0.2% makes it a 500-1 shot

Yeah sorry Dan , course it is . Getting confused with the snooker player  and a few pints of cloudy cider 

[tikay]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Talking of "three sigma events" did you know that in the world of particle physics, especially at CERN, to ensure they are not just looking at statistical deviation when analysing data, they require a FIVE sigma threshold before they accept something as valid rather than just statistical deviation.

That's a lot of sigmas, whatever they are. 

That also tells us that in truth, Lucky Jim is really running rather well. And he is a BOOKIE looking for sympathy. Good luck with that. 

[bookiebasher]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Talking of "three sigma events" did you know that in the world of particle physics, especially at CERN, to ensure they are not just looking at statistical deviation when analysing data, they require a FIVE sigma threshold before they accept something as valid rather than just statistical deviation.

That's a lot of sigmas, whatever they are. 

That also tells us that in truth, Lucky Jim is really running rather well. And he is a BOOKIE looking for sympathy. Good luck with that. 

I am not looking for sympathy , I am looking for the statistical probability of it happening. That way I can put it into
some sort of perspective rather than thinking the machine has a glitch/software malfunction/security breach , all sorts
of things go round your head .

I know I am there to be shot at , and I have been shot many times but this one was much more than a flesh wound.

Hard to argue with the "yield" men at the gaming company when you can't get a handle on the probability.

It's great that you can post on Blonde and get some really good information from more knowledgeable than myself ,

such as Typhoon , Red Dog and Woodsey

[Doobs]

Hey no worries Darren , thanks for your input , much appreciated . Will make it a £1 next time I post 

Its Dan but no worries

0.2% makes it a 500-1 shot

Yeah sorry Dan , course it is . Getting confused with the snooker player  and a few pints of cloudy cider 

And this one man is a 500/1 shot.  If you have had 50 similar people come through over the years then you are getting close to 1 in 10.

I certainly wouldn't dismiss it.  There can always be a glitch in software.  Machine man should file a report so that they can spot a pattern if it happens again.  There was a story I read a year or two back about somebody making millions from a machine glitch in Vegas.

The most likely reason is just bad variance still.

Have you banned him yet? 

[doubleup]

What is your hypothesis?  The machine is malfunctioning or the player is interfering with it?

If the former the relevant numbers should be coming up with a higher frequency for ALL players not just one.  If the latter, it would be surprising if the issue was restricted to your shop.

[bookiebasher]

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Jeez , I have a headache and it's not the cloudy cider from last night.

I wonder if the guys at the gaming company have heard of three sigma events , I wonder  

Where's Woodsey when you need him ?

[bookiebasher]

Hey no worries Darren , thanks for your input , much appreciated . Will make it a £1 next time I post 

Its Dan but no worries

0.2% makes it a 500-1 shot

Yeah sorry Dan , course it is . Getting confused with the snooker player  and a few pints of cloudy cider 

And this one man is a 500/1 shot.  If you have had 50 similar people come through over the years then you are getting close to 1 in 10.

I certainly wouldn't dismiss it.  There can always be a glitch in software.  Machine man should file a report so that they can spot a pattern if it happens again.  There was a story I read a year or two back about somebody making millions from a machine glitch in Vegas.

The most likely reason is just bad variance still.

Have you banned him yet? 

I was going to ban him but my rep told me to hang on in and over the next two days he won a few thousand more.

Current circumstances with separating from the modern day version of  Queen Mary , and monies being "locked" with solicitors meant I didn't have a lot of choice but to politely request we have a chat and while paying him his last £2500 I said to the young lad that he was in a unique and privileged position in being the first person I have barred in 26 years at this particular office. He was quite chuffed. 

We had quite a long conversation which gave me complete confidence that he was not interfering in any way with the
machines. As a back up I had someone outside to take his car registration number , just in case

I know that it is a backward step by barring him but I was forced into this position by external factors although I must say
I don't have the fear of seeing his face come through the door now

[bookiebasher]

What is your hypothesis?  The machine is malfunctioning or the player is interfering with it?

If the former the relevant numbers should be coming up with a higher frequency for ALL players not just one.  If the latter, it would be surprising if the issue was restricted to your shop.

I haven't got a hypothesis. All sorts of stuff goes through your mind when it's relentless , day after day and totally
off the scale of anything like it happening in all the previous years. That's why if I can get a rough probability figure
I can put it into some sort of context. Off the top of my head I thought it was in the thousands to one it happening and
it was slightly annoying the gaming guys saying its within normal variance.

As Jim Royal would say ..... normal variance my arse.

[tikay]

Sorry Jim, but I did laugh at "Queen Mary".......

Never mind, roll on Saturday when all those short priced accas go down, & you get the lot.

Sky Bet do a "Price Boosted" Treble every Saturday, which really looks appetising & good value. Can't remember the last time all 3 won though. They know, them bookies, they know. All 1 sigma stuff there.

[bookiebasher]

Sorry Jim, but I did laugh at "Queen Mary".......

Never mind, roll on Saturday when all those short priced accas go down, & you get the lot.

Sky Bet do a "Price Boosted" Treble every Saturday, which really looks appetising & good value. Can't remember the last time all 3 won though. They know, them bookies, they know. All 1 sigma stuff there.

Still waiting for you to go in a proper bookies and do the write up !!

Put some "tips for tikay" money on 5 17 35 , can't lose 

[typhoon13]

I know a member of a syndicate that made a lotta cash on these machines

They moved around bookmaker shops backing certain numbers at certain times in the day

Some software geek from control was making sure a percentage of these numbers dropped in on time

But like every good thing in life they all got a tad greedier and software geek got caught

Wherever cash is involved there will always be some form of corruption

Not saying this is what happened in Jims shop

Poor bookiebasher he now knows how it feels for a change