Tal's inaugural and maybe only NFL preview (2016/17 edition)

[Tal]

Rather than a betting-oriented preview, this is intended to be more of a sports preview, although there will inevitably be some occasions where the conclusion of a section is that a particular team or individual could offer value at their current price.

What follows is a few remarks on each of the thirty two NFL teams, the eight NFL divisions they play in, a prediction of the twelve teams that will go on to play in the playoffs and – because it wouldn’t be right to leave it there – a prediction on who plays in and who wins Super Bowl 51. Once you have read it, you are welcome to tell me what a brainless mug I am. This is the internet after all. Enjoy...

[Tal]

NFC EAST

This is, in one respect, the toughest division in the NFL to call, as there are four teams who could win it and none of them actually seem to want to. For this reason, it’s a division that gets grief for the amount of TV coverage it gets, but it has big named teams and good fan bases. All four teams will be looking to make the playoffs, but my view is only one is going to. These are four teams who flatter to deceive in one form or another and who find ways to make themselves the butt of jokes in bars across the country (a star defensive player losing fingers in a fireworks incident on 4th July; a seemingly relentless series of players being suspended for domestic violence; a maverick head coach comes in, changes everything, trades away the star players, messes up and leaves carnage behind; and a team who traded the universe for a quarterback who sparkled, then fizzled, then flapped, then left, but who might now be good somewhere else). And people wonder why it gets so much coverage…

The Dallas Cowboys are an historic team (cue someone saying that means they used to be good), who are modestly referred to by the locals as “America’s Team”. With an owner who wants to be involved in every decision made in the stadium, they have enjoyed some success, primarily by virtue of their offense. There are a plethora of clichés in this sport, but one that certainly holds true is that a top quarterback, a top wide receiver and a top running back gets you points. The Cowboys have all three on their roster in Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and rookie Ezekiel Elliott. They have one of the best offensive lines in football to protect the QB and to give their running back the chance to find gaps to make yards. They do, however, struggle to keep these stars fit, with Romo now out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season (his backup out for the year and a rookie, Dak Prescott, a fourth round pick, now thrust into the jersey at least a year early) and Dez no lock to play 16 games. This massively hampered their efficiency with the ball last year (from 4th to 31st, per Football Outsiders). On defense, they are mediocre at best and have a slew of absences to their pass-rushing corps, which, combined with a very poor run defense, makes it difficult for them to win the ball back in good territory. This is a team that relies on its offense, so injuries on that side of the ball hurt the Cowboys more than most.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the weakest of the four teams in this division on paper, as they have lost their elite running back (LeSean McCoy) and a number of other key players in recent years. They also have an inconsistent quarterback in Sam Bradford, whom they are looking to replace with a rookie, Carson Wentz, when he has got used to the offense, which will be, at the earliest, late on in the season. Their offense is simply terrible, with very few players you’re likely to need to snap up early in fantasy leagues. With a fragile running back in Jordan Matthews, they are reliant on keeping him fit to hold onto leads, and their secondary – which is fairly decent – is going to be under pressure to deliver, because they have no support from a front seven that will barely get near opposing quarterbacks. The fact they are only 4/1 to win this division is a reflection of how flawed each of the teams in this division is. The Eagles just have less talent to find single-handed wins.

The New York Giants are becoming a team lots of casual fans want to talk about. This isn’t because of their run game (which sees five guys taking it in turns to get three yards or fewer up the field), but because of what they can do through the air. Odell Beckham Jr (he of “that” catch) is a bona fide superstar and the third year Wide Receiver is getting support from a rookie in second rounder, Sterling Shepard, alongside him. The theory is this will mean he is only marked by one guy, making him even more problematic for defences this season. Under center, the G-Men have 35 year old Eli Manning, who seems to spend the season alternating good and bad decisions and hoping that his last decision each week is a good one. With a new head coach in Ben McAdoo, they might find a spark that they need to take this division. They have made more sensible personnel decisions in recent years (particularly in bolstering their front 7 on defense), which is one reason why some commentators are cute on them this season. They are excellent at defending through the middle, but are abysmal at stopping defenders coming around the outside to hit Manning. If you want to stretch the play, you have to give your receivers time to get downfield. That means the offensive line needs to hold off the defenders and protect the quarterback. That will be their biggest challenge this year.
 
The Washington Redskins have a lot going for them. At least, that’s what we saw last year. Quarterback, Kirk Cousins, enjoyed a remarkable season, even if he was only technically ranked as mediocre by the metrics men (16th by Pro Football Focus). He is playing under the franchise tag this season, meaning the team wants to keep him but the player wants more money. Is he worth top dollar? He thinks so. He’s going to have to prove it to the suits, though. He is helped by a very good 1-2-3 in receivers in DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and the tight end, Jordan Reed. The first two are in contract years, which tends to be an incentive for players to play well. Cousins isn’t helped, however, by what might be the worst running back corps in football. Alfred Morris has gone to Dallas, leaving 2nd year Matt Jones as the main man. He has had problems with dropping the ball under contact and is a poor blocker, but he’s still young and has unquestionable talent. The Redskins decided they had bigger needs elsewhere in the draft and clearly have faith in Jones and number two, Chris Thompson. Bringing in Carolina’s top cornerback, Josh Norman, will make their secondary very strong, which is important when you are throwing the ball a lot yourself and getting in high-scoring games.

Prediction
The division will see all four teams winning games you didn’t expect, losing games you were sure they’d win and making headlines for all the wrong reasons. None of them will win 10 games and only the winner will make the playoffs. The Cowboys, even with Romo only there for half the season, should just have enough to win this division, having what Yahoo says is the easiest schedule of all 32 teams. The order will be:

1. Dallas
2. Washington
3. New York
4. Philadelphia

[Tal]

NFC NORTH

Two good, two bad. Two teams in transition, two teams looking to go deep in the playoffs. This is a division where you’ll see more snow than a series of Game of Thrones, which always makes for great TV.

The Chicago Bears have a rich history of defense, with the 1985 team being one of the greatest of all time. The 2015 edition was the second worst in the NFL (per Football Outsiders), so it is fair to say the fans aren’t happy. Getting rid of their elite tight end and their star running back probably hasn’t enthused the crowd, either. On the plus side (because there is one), they have a top drawer wide receiver in Alshon Jeffery, a drafted WR from 2015 in Kevin White, who missed all of last season and an improved linebacker unit, through trades and drafts. If they can be average on defense and keep their offense fit and firing, they’ve got a respectable team. The trouble is, that’s a lot of ifs and the offensive coordinator, Adam Gase, has left for Miami, which means the QB, Jay Cutler, has lost a man he worked well with.

The Detroit Lions have had the biggest loss in the division, after future Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin “Megatron” Johnson announced his retirement at the end of last season. He took a lot of targets and occupied opposing defences for years, allowing the team space elsewhere and points when the ball went Megatron’s way. Whilst they have Golden Tate and the traded-in Marvin Jones, their receiving corps simply can’t be better than average this season, even if QB Matt Stafford has a career year. The offense did look better last year under the delightfully-named offensive coordinator Jim-Bob Cooter, but the O-Line protects the run better than the pass and the defense line is uninspiring. Looks like a rebuilding year to me.

The Green Bay Packers are the obvious favourites for this division and you should start immediately by looking at star QB, Aaron Rodgers for the reasons why. Having bided his time behind Brett Favre, Rodgers stepped up and did so with mercurial aplomb. Now in the twilight of his career, he isn’t looking back, on a new fitness regime and full of rage from last season’s disappointing exit from the playoffs. Speaking of fitness regimes, running back, Eddie Lacy has trimmed down to a broadly appropriate weight for a multi-million dollar elite athlete, which is bound to help them get back to a top 10 running game. This matters because the team will need to protect leads and that requires you to run the clock down with running backs. The receivers are great if they can stay fit – well, two of them are (Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson) – and bringing in Jared Cook from the St Louis Rams will give them a more dynamic tight end. The O-Line is probably underrated in some quarters and their secondary definitely is. You’ll hear Ha Ha Clinton-Dix’s name a lot more this year, I fancy.

The Minnesota Vikings won the division last year but are second favourites this time round. That is no reflection on them, but of the Packers getting some players back who were injured or unfit. The man under center is a far less inspiring Teddy Bridgewater, but he’s better than his reputation affords: an accurate passer whose control of games is improving. He’s in a team that needs him to be average and he can deliver that. The running back is Adrian “All Day” Peterson, a supreme athlete, who has maybe two good years left before he drops off the RB cliff. Their wide receiving corps is young but Stefon Diggs had flashes of brilliance last season and the top-ranked WR on many people’s draft boards has joined him in the draft: Laquon Treadwell. This team’s strength, though, is on the other side of the ball, because the defense is top-drawer. Everson Griffen is likely to get the help he needs in the pass rush this season and that will mean he is not double-covered as frequently, in a schedule where they play a lot of average-or-below pass protecting offensive lines.

Prediction
The two teams who fought it out last year will do so again in 2016. People are thinking that the Vikings’ success was a default due to the Packers not firing. I believe that’s true in the sense it was a year early for Mike Zimmer’s team to show up to the party, but now they’ve been there, done it and have improved under a seriously good head coach.

1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

[Tal]

NFC SOUTH

This is the division with the most teams likely to ruin your accumulator. Gunslinging QBs, wide receivers who frustrate and hit and miss players on both sides of the ball. Yet it’s pretty easy to pick the winner.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t be it. But they will improve this season from some sensible decision-making in recent years. Quarterback, Jameis Winston is a player I am cute on this season. He has got himself fit and, after a rather roguish start, became a measured and composed QB for a young rookie. He has a big (if occasionally inaccurate) arm and that brings in a supremely talented WR in Mike Evans. Evans dropped the ball far too often last season, but I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. He has (IMO) the best blocking wide receiver alongside him in veteran Vincent Jackson, but VJax is no mug as a catcher either. The weakness is there’s no one else to help, as the number 3 receiver is Adam Humphreys (that’s one to quote to people in pub quizzes…even if you’re in a bar in Tampa Bay). They do have one of the best running back partnerships in football in Doug Martin and Charles Sims but a rotten pass defense means they are going to be in high-scoring games frequently. Spending a second round pick on a kicker is one of those idiot or genius moves that will entertain the hacks and wags all season. He’s had a mixed preseason, but I can see Roberto Aguayo making some important points this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have a head coach who used to be part of the Seattle Seahawks’ success story in Dan Quinn, so you’d expect their defense to be good. Well, it’s getting there. Slowly. The problem is he started with what can only be described as a pile of dross (but still not the worst in the division), so has improved it to “poor” in his time in Georgia. Quinn focused first on improving the revolving-door offensive line, because he has a veteran QB in Matt Ryan and one of the best WRs in the league in Julio Jones. Simply, they need protecting, because those two can win games when they work together. Edge rusher Vic Beasley had good flashes last year and I expect him to be better this season, as they look to build around him. Quinn is building a team, here, but it’s not there yet.

The Carolina Panthers nearly won everything last year, but came away with a “thanks for coming” nod from the Super Bowl and little else. Suffice to say, they will want to make amends. Cam Newton is a superstar quarterback, with athleticism, decision-making, savvy and weapons. In Jonathan Stewart, he has a running back who will do the dirty work on the ground and keep the ball moving. 49 missed tackles in 2015 puts him 3rd overall (Pro Football Focus) and the offensive line was 6th in making space for the run (Football Outsiders). In the air, Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and TE Greg Olsen is as athletic and frightening a prospect as just about any in the NFL. And this is a team that had the number 2 defense in all of football last season. A smart head coach in Ron Rivera and a team hungry for success seems to suggest there’s no real reason this won’t be a very good team in 2016.

The New Orleans Saints had the worst defence last season. And by worst I mean 27th against the run, 32nd against the pass, 30th against deep passes, 32nd against short passes, 31st best defensive line…You get the picture. They sacked their defensive coordinator Rob Ryan at the end of the season (more on that later). This is a franchise that won it all in 2009. It is on offense that the Saints rely: Drew Brees is one of the select band of QBs who seem somehow to stay standing and firing bullets in teams that struggle elsewhere. He pretty much carries this team but he does so brilliantly. The points line in their games rarely drops below 44.5 and will often be in the mid fifties. What gets overlooked is how well he reads defences and he calls plays exceptionally well. The trouble has been the offense has to be one-dimensional because they can’t defend and the receivers have been mediocre at best. Michael Thomas will help them, there, this year, as a guy who will pick up short passes and allow progress, while Brandin Cooks will be running downfield and looking for the big throws. Their offensive line is strong and the running game is good, so long as the bulldozing Mark Ingram stays fit.     

Prediction
Last year, the Panthers had the division basically locked up in November. They’ll win it again this year, but the three teams below them have improved in the summer and have escaped major injuries. The Panthers have a tougher schedule and will be happy to win the division in week 16, ahead of three middle-of-the-road sides with head-scratching win-loss records. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if there were a tied game in this division.

1. Carolina
2. Tampa Bay
3. Atlanta
4. New Orleans

[Tal]

NFC WEST

Saving the best for last in the NFC, we head west. Much like the North, there are two good teams and two bad teams, so it’s not a division you can get completely wrong easily. It wasn’t long ago that this division was the laughing stock of the league, where a 50% record would win it. Now, 11-5 might not be enough.

The San Francisco 49ers are a complete mess. They have a quarterback competition between a guy who’d not make many rosters in the NFL and a guy who almost won the Super Bowl a few years ago, but who has lost all confidence and now has fans burning his jerseys outside the ground, following his decision to protest during the National Anthem. As if that wasn’t enough, they have the worst WR corps in the NFL (Torrey Smith, Eric Rogers, Quinton Patton and Aaron Burbridge. You’re welcome), Carlos Hyde is a back-up running back but is starting his second year as the main man, the tight ends are fantasy irrelevant and their O-Line is simply hideous. The Head Coach is Chip Kelly, who left Philadelphia in a mess and is one season away from adding his name to the list of successful college coaches who couldn’t cut it in the big leagues. They are my tip to get the first overall pick in 2017. This, in my opinion, is the worst team in the NFL.

The Arizona Cardinals are rapidly becoming everyone’s second favourite team. They have so much to root for: an offense that spreads play brilliantly and causes chaos for opposing defensive coordinators, a quarterback (Carson Palmer) who is enjoying a renaissance after a horrid injury, a running back (David Johnson) who could be the best in the NFL in just his second year, a nasty defense that makes plays all over the field and one of the best and most innovative head coaches in the game in Bruce Arians. Safety, Tyrann Matthieu will lead an improved defensive unit which will now include DE Chandler Jones from the Patriots and the mercurial talent of rookie Robert Nkemdiche. The more you challenge the quarterback, the more the secondary has a chance of intercepting passes. If this team gets the ball in midfield regularly, they are going to put big points on a lot of opponents. Watch out for JJ Nelson, if one of the wide receivers gets injured, as his blistering speed will make for some fun highlight reel plays. They have a roster of such talent, it seems to defy the salary cap. And yet they might not have the best one in the division.

The Los Angeles Rams have starred in the dullest series of Hard Knocks to-date this year. Moreover, they just seem to waste draft picks, find ways to get players injured and coach them poorly. That’s not exactly a recipe for success. In fact, the last time this team (which, until this year, was based in St Louis) had a winning record, Busted, Westlife and Fatman Scoop were in the charts. “That’s some 7 and 9 bullsh*t”, says the main man, Jeff Fisher. Two rookie wideouts are the answer to the question of “how does this team get better on offense?”, he hopes: Mike Thomas and Pharoh Cooper will help Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt make plays, although Cooper has just got injured and might miss the first two games. The O-Line can’t be much worse than last year and the D-Line will continue to dominate.   

The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the top teams in the NFC for the last 4 years, as Pete Carroll has moulded a barnstorming defense (the so-called Legion of Boom) and added firepower to the offense, around a QB who was to many a minor consideration when drafted in Russell Wilson. A mobile guy, like Cam Newton, Wilson has built his success on doing sensible things consistently and letting the big playmakers do their thing. But he’s then got better and better himself, meaning he’s in the conversation now as the best QB in the whole league. 38 touchdowns and 11 interceptions is elite conversation stuff, particularly in a team that doesn’t need to worry about conceding a lot of points. At WR, they have just paid Doug Baldwin a fortune and he is going to have to replicate what he did last year to justify it. Second year, Tyler Lockett, will be looking to progress, and will get the chance to do so. Pounding the rock might well fall to the newly-Christened Christine Michael SENIOR, although he and Thomas Rawls are both unproven talents at this point. C.J. Prosise has been drafted to add a pass-catching back to the mix, although the committee approach seems to be drawing a lot of positive noise from the NFL wags. Their biggest concern will be the offensive line, which was rotten in 2015. Your QB can only dance around and duck tackles for so long before someone clatters him. First round pick, Germain Ifedi, will be required to step up straight away and support the most efficient offense in the NFL (FO). They have lost a number of their defensive stars over the last couple of years and, although plenty remain, there has to be a question mark about whether they can recover their dominance of a couple of years ago. 

Prediction
No surprises that I am saying two up two down. Seattle will dominate a lot of teams but I expect them to have one too many losses to stay with the Cards. The Niners will finish with fewer than 5 wins and will be looking for a new head coach, a new quarterback and a new lease of life. They will also pick first in the 2017 draft. The Rams will not get better under Fisher and eventually someone who works in LA will work that out.

1. Arizona
2. Seattle
3. Los Angeles
4. San Francisco

[Tal]

AFC EAST

The 237th Annual New England Patriots Romp is nearly ready to go. Coincidentally, the 237th Annual All The Other Teams Do Stupid Things Despite Having Talented Rosters Event is, too. Let’s get this division preview out of the way, then…

The Buffalo Bills had one of the best defenses in football two years ago. Then some of the team gave up playing (without bothering to retire, refuse to play or feign injury), some forgot how to do football stuff and others just went old-school and got suspended. Considering this was a season when one of the most defensively-minded Head Coaches in Rex Ryan was there, this was rather a surprising turn of events. Don’t worry, he’s worked out what needs changing, getting rid of the troublesome DE Mario Williams, drafting some young talent to replace him and bringing in a coach to help with the defense in the form of his brother Rob Ryan. Wait, didn’t I see his name earlier? Yes, the one who looked after the worst defense in football last year in New Orleans. That one, yep. They’ve also had a slew of injuries and suspensions on the D-side in this summer, which is really hurting the team’s chances of success in 2016. Against that, they have found a QB who can throw to people’s hands (not their feet or six feet above their head), a running back corps that can compete well and a wide receiver in Sammy Watkins who could be on for a stellar year. The offensive line is consistently underrated and the left side in particular is as good as any around. Despite defense woes, the secondary could have (and I know I said this last year) the best pairing in the NFL now. Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore will go up against any other.

The Miami Dolphins are an odd bunch. Like the state of Florida, it seems to be a retirement home. On paper, it has so much talent, but they have not worked out how to use it and might suffer from the egos and even the trappings the area has to offer. QB Ryan Tannehill gets chased and pressured over a third of the time he holds onto the ball and that’s not ideal when your receivers struggle to get into space, Arian Foster has been brought in to help the running game and he has been impressive in pre-season, but it’s hard to get excited about a player who has chronic fitness issues, even if he flashes brilliantly for the first few weeks. The team’s offense efficiency crumpled from 8th to 22nd last year (FO) and needs to improve significantly to compete in this division. It is hard to see how that is going to happen.

The New York Jets have spent the summer arguing with a journeyman quarterback who has barely put consecutive good seasons together in his career, but then gave him $15m to stay on. Ryan Fitzpatrick (he went to Harvard, you know) has two top receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to and a running game that has been boosted by Matt Forte’s arrival from Chicago, in place of Chris “looks good and then gets injured to ruin your fantasy team” Ivory. They lost twice to the Bills last season, which is impressive for anyone, let alone a team that would have won the division if they’d won both. Todd Bowles looks like an upgrade on the previous head coach, Rex Ryan. Their D-Line is nasty-looking this year and Leonard Williams is going to do a lot of donkey work without making headlines. This should be a good team in 2016.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are in turmoil. The quarterback (Tom Brady) is suspended for his role in the Deflategate saga, the running back, Dion Lewis, is out for the season and the wide receivers take it in turns to visit the school nurse. The thing is, Brady will be back after four games (when they’ll be no worse than 2-2), their receivers all seem to be regaining fitness, they now have two elite tight ends in Robert Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett (from Chicago), they’ve drafted well, they’ve traded for players you know will make a handful of key plays when it matters and Bill Belichick is simply the best coach in the NFL and one of the all-time greats of the game. In the secondary, McCourty and Chung are in the conversation for best safety partnership around. Turmoil? What turmoil?

Prediction
I am not going to tell you my beloved Bills are going to win the division. I’m optimistic enough not to put them fourth, though. The Dolphins seem still to have too many problems to make them viable and the other three have too much talent to finish below them. This remains Brady/Belichick country for at least another three years.

1. New England
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami     

[Tal]

AFC NORTH

An intriguing division, which is a feature of the AFC this year. At least three teams have contested this one for the last few years and that’s been at a decent level, too. Currently, it’s a three horse race and one of those is a clear third favourite. However, what makes this division fun is the number of injuries and unknowns, as it’s very difficult to value what has been left behind and calculate how long the main guys will stay fit.

The Cincinnati Bengals have the best defense of the four teams in this division (10th per FO), one of the best wide receivers in the league (A J Green, 3rd, FO), a strong run game (7th, FO) with Gio Bernard between the 20s and Jeremy Hill in the red zone, and a fierce home crowd (no ranking, but they are pretty fierce). They have drafted WR Tyler Boyd to take some pressure off Green and Tyler Eifert, their tight end, will miss a few games but should offer an endzone threat when he returns. Their offensive line is underrated and their defense will continue to make plays in a competitive team. They must be a contender for this division, even if they get no further than the first game of the playoffs (a persistent monkey on the Bengals’ backs). The team that went 12-4 last season isn’t as good in 2016, but it is still strong.

The Cleveland Browns would benefit from doing something right once in a while. It’d be a novel strategy for this franchise, but desperate times call for desperate measures and, maybe, just maybe, someone in a management meeting shouted out that crazy idea around the time they brought in Robert Griffin III to play quarterback and replace the shameless flop Johnny Manziel. Griffin had a rough couple of years in Washington, but it is easy to forget that, before he got injured, he was the offensive rookie of the year and he has a remarkable level of ability. Josh Gordon used to be an elite wide receiver. He has been busy pursuing other projects for the last couple of years (google is your friend) but will be back…once his suspension is served…and could turn out to be half the player he once was, which would make him the best receiver on this roster. They have, however, found two WRs to help: Corey Coleman was a number of people’s top prospect in the position in this year’s draft and Terrell Prior has switched from being quarterback but has seemingly made it work. This remains a poor team, but it has a higher ceiling than it did a year ago.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a roster on offense that would worry any defense that there’s ever been. QB “Big” Ben Roethlisberger is like the bionic man and keeps taking hits and coming back for more. At wide receiver, Antonio Brown is the best in the business, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton provide elite-level supporting roles and they brought in Ladarius Green to replace the retiring Heath Miller at Tight End. The trouble is Green has been struggling with concussion and Bryant has got himself suspended for the season for a drugs violation. No matter, they still have LeVeon Bell at running back…except he’s got a three game ban for missing “multiple” drugs tests. The replacement for those games DeAngelo Williams will do what he did last year, which is to play the understudy role brilliantly and use the space created by teams that simply can’t defend the run heavily with all those receivers sprinting behind them. Their defense is significantly better this season and they’ve been smart in their acquisitions on that side of the ball.

The Baltimore Ravens are the fierce rivals of the Steelers but have lost a lot of their magic, with some of their big stars having retired or having started to deteriorate (or both in Steve Smith’s case – he’s unretired). Under coach Harbaugh, they remain competitive on both sides of the ball, but you get the feeling that Joe Flacco is beginning to struggle at QB. The veteran has never been consistent, but he has found it hard with so few weapons available to him and that has led to poor decision making. Getting hit and intercepted a lot doesn’t exactly help confidence, either. The WR corps has talent but it is unrealised as of yet (I am a fan of Kamar Aiken, but he needs a good year for me to start to find people who agree) and this is the only team in the league to have a Tight End By Committee system, as Maxx Williams, Crockett Gilmore and Dennis Pitta will share plays (it would have been four of them, but Ben Watson got injured in preseason). The running game is a similar jumble of undesirables. One of them might star, but it’s a hope, rather than an expectation, for this franchise.

Prediction
I could make a case for the Browns to finish third in this division, but it’d be a real push and a lot of specific things would have to happen for that to be the result. More likely, they have a year where they finish fourth but don’t disgrace themselves and, frankly, a whole lot of their fans would take that now. The Steelers will pip the Bengals, just through sheer might and winning games with a little more nous under center.

1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati
3. Baltimore
4. Cleveland

[Tal]

AFC SOUTH

I get to finish with the two most exciting divisions in the AFC this year. In this one, the teams are all rather unfinished and looking to improve. The division features two of the highest paid players in the NFL for their position, a franchise that might end up in London in a few years and a team most Americans will forget, when asked who is in the AFC South.

The Indianapolis Colts are led by QB, Andrew Luck, who signed a six year, $140m contract in the summer, $47m of which is fully guaranteed. He is not the guy the hype would have you believe, as Number Fire’s metrics have him as being inconsistent when dropping back to pass (10th ranked being his best result in 2014). He is, however, still young for a QB and arguably still learning his trade, in between injuries. An improved WR corps will help him massively, particularly as a miserable defense (26th DL and 30th secondary, per PFF) will require him to throw accurately and often to win games, because they will concede points. This team should have enough firepower to compete for the division title, but the question is whether it can ride its…er…Luck.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are owned by the man who bought Fulham FC from Mohammed Al Fayed and are most people’s predicted team to end up playing at White Hart Lane in a few years. For the past few years they have been poor, but Shahid Khan has put a heavy emphasis on analytics and the franchise has built sensibly for the last couple of seasons, under the stewardship of former Seahawks Defensive Coordinator, Gus Bradley. In addition to a playmaking offense (QB Blake Bortles and WR pair Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns), the team is building competence on the other side of the ball, trading and drafting in talent. With Seattle’s Michael Bennett coming in and number 5 overall pick Jaelen Ramsey, you expect them to be well coached, well organised and competitive. Third place for the last three years won’t be enough this time round and the fans will expect at least an 8-8 season from what should be a good team.

The Houston Texans are not dissimilar to the Jags, except they’ve done things the other way round. Having the best defensive player in the NFL in JJ Watt helps, but he’s not alone in that defensive unit, supported by a cast of players who would be automatic picks for most teams around. They need former number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney to start showing what he delivered in college, but there have been signs of it in preseason. On offense, DeAndre “Nuk” Hopkins is an explosive and top 5 wide receiver, with 1,521 receiving yards last season. He will be helped by the drafting of Will Fuller to play on the other side of the field, as teams will need to mark both of them. They also have Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong in there to help the workload. Under center, the Texans have struggled for a number of years, and will hope that Brock Osweiler will deliver for them. Like a few teams, they really just need him to be average to succeed. The jury is still out on whether he will be, as Denver weren’t prepared to pay to keep him, despite losing Peyton Manning after the Super Bowl win and Broncos General Manager John Elway knows a thing or two about quarterbacks. In Bill O’Brien, the Texans have an entertaining and tactically brave head coach and it will be interesting to see whether this team puts it all together, now that they have a fitter running back in Lamar Miller.
 
The Tennessee Titans are in a rebuilding phase. They have started well by getting a lot of draft picks for themselves over a few years and that has enabled them to bring in talent. The simple way to build an NFL franchise is to find a good quarterback, then an offensive line to protect him, wide receivers he can throw the ball to and running backs he can use to keep the defense honest. The Titans have Marcus Mariota, are building an OL and have brought in Demarco Murray, who found weapons grade success in Dallas. They still seem short in the receiver positions, but might have found a star in Tajae Sharpe, who has looked comfortable from the off and seems to have found chemistry with his QB straight away. He doesn’t have much competition and this remains a weakness for this team, even if their head coach, Mike Mullarkey, is from the school of football that says you should run the ball, stop the run and sometimes throw it if you need to, which is a shame in what is now a passing league. They need to be nastier on defense (24th against both run and pass, FO) and this project feels at least a couple of seasons away from viability.

Prediction
The Texans and the Colts will be most people’s pick for this division, but the best head coach in the division is in Florida. He has the all-round roster with the most potential and a team that is buying into his philosophy. Although this isn’t a Super Bowl team by any means, there’s enough to like about the Jaguars to make me believe this could be the year they turn the corner and get 8 or more wins. Andrew Luck will throw for 4,800 yards if he stays upright for 16 games, but it will often be in situations where he needs to throw, as his team will be behind more than they have been previously. This division is going to be close between three sides, who could legitimately finish on identical records. But I think the Texans will be better on offense than last season and maintain their dominance on D to finish second.

1. Jacksonville
2. Houston
3. Indianapolis
4. Tennessee

[Tal]

AFC WEST

Another supremely tough division to call and one which will be most enjoyable to watch this season. The defending Super Bowl champions don’t have it easy in this division and I am predicting a challenging year ahead for them.

The Denver Broncos won it all in February and have managed to keep the MVP from that game, Von Miller, along with the majority of the number one ranked defense in the NFL from last season. The key to their success was their dominance in attacking the quarterback: if you have men who can win 1 on 1 situations consistently, the opposition has to add numbers to the O-Line to stop you and that means they have fewer threats downfield. It’s a simple system but hugely effective. It is on the other side of the ball that they struggle and that was not helped by Peyton Manning limping slowly into retirement throughout the season. His understudy has left for Houston and that left a QB battle between former Jet and Eagle, Mark Sanchez and the largely unheard of Trevor Siemian. They do have a rookie in Paxton Lynch, but he doesn’t seem ready for the big time, yet. Breaking news is Siemian has won the starting job, but any extra arm he has to Manning is vastly outweighed by Manning’s game management and reading of defences. The weapons on offense stack up well in theory, with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas heading the 7th best WR corps around (PFF). The running game is flawed at best and the offensive line has struggled with injuries and form. The defense will need to carry them again if they are to succeed in this division and beyond.

The San Diego Chargers are another one of those franchises that seem to find creative ways to hurt themselves. They are currently looking to move to a new stadium, possibly to a new city, and have had a very public dispute with their top draft pick, Joey Bosa, which has led to him being unlikely to play many games this season, if at all. With Philip Rivers, they have a QB who can carry the team on his shoulders to competence, a bit like the New Orleans Saints have with Drew Brees. Last year’s performance was as much a reflection of injuries to the WR corps as it was on anything, as star man Keenan Allen struggled to get on the field. If he stays fit, they have a much more dynamic offense, build on the passing game but with an interesting second year RB in Melvin Gordon and an elite tight end in Antonio Gates. In bringing in Travis Benjamin at WR, they have a guy who will enjoy being a number 2 far more than he enjoyed number 1 duties in Cleveland. This team should be better this year, but it is hard to see them challenging for honours, with a poor defense that doesn’t get to the opposing QB anywhere near often enough and the man brought in to do that watching from home.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a contract situation, too, this summer, but they have just secured the signature of safety Eric Berry for another year, meaning they have got the Comeback Player of the Year on the field again. In Andy Reid, they have a head coach who will ensure they challenge for above average results and he has done this throughout his career. They are solid in all areas of the field and went on a terrific run of 10 wins in a row, despite losing their star running back, Jamaal Charles, through injury. In Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, they have two excellent understudies who can help with the load, but there’s no doubt about who is number one in the running back depth chart. At WR, Jeremy Maclin’s arrival from Philadelphia last year helped hugely, because they have a good tight end in Travis Kelce. On defense, in Hali and Houston, they have a formidable pairing to harry quarterbacks, but the question is whether they can stay healthy and, if not, whether their replacements can step up when they step in. The team is built on being solid in all departments and spectacular in none, which certainly helps cover for injuries, but it does leave concerns about whether they can put it all together like they did last season.

The Oakland Raiders were good a long while ago, but have struggled in recent years. A revolving door management structure and a series of failed quarterbacks has offered nothing for what might be the most dauntingly nutty core home fans in the NFL. But that seems to be changing: Jack Del Rio has come in as head coach and GM, Reggie McKenzie, has started to build a franchise with him. They have a QB in Derek Carr, who is starting to show signs he can lead an offense (PFF has a remarkable stat that he lost 375 yards last season in dropped passes). He will be throwing to Amari Cooper, whose size and speed is a matchup problem for cornerbacks, Michael Crabtree, who enjoyed a renaissance last season after failure down the road in San Francisco, and second year tight end, Clive Walford, whose name sounds more British than he actually is. A hugely underrated offensive line will help (2nd in PFF’s ratings for this year) and Latavius Murray will produce solidly if unspectacularly for the team when required. On defense, Khalil Mack is a superstar DE who will cause huge problems for teams all year. The team will also be boosted by signing Bruce Irvin from Seattle, Sean Smith from Kansas City and rookie safety Karl Joseph. Quietly, this team has what might be a top 5 defense.

Prediction
A little like the AFC South, I’m keen to oppose the favourite (Denver) and am content that the second favourite (Kansas City) will perform to a certain level without being much better or worse. This feels like a Raider year to me and this is a team I am looking forward to watching this season. It’s going to be close between the three teams and tough to call between Denver and KC, but I have too many doubts about this QB situation and I’d rather put my money with the safer pick for second. The Chargers will win 5 or 6 games, depending on the fitness of Allen and Rivers, and we can enjoy finding out whether they manage actually to sign the Defensive End they draft next year.

1. Oakland
2. Kansas City
3. Denver
4. San Diego

[Tal]

THE PLAYOFFS

The 12 playoff teams are decided by the eight division winners and the two best win-loss records in each conference. In the NFC, this is a no-brainer, because the North and the West have two excellent teams in each, and there is no reason to suppose those four teams fail to make the post-season. Packers and Seahawks go to the playoffs.

In the AFC, it is much tougher, and the wildcard situation will be between four teams: the Bengals, the Chiefs, the Broncos and the Jets. Realistically, all four should have at least 8-8 records this season and 9-7 will be a minimum requirement for the fans. I am going to pick the two teams with the easiest schedules of the four (as ranked by Yahoo). The problem for the Jets is the AFC East is paired with the brutal NFC West this season for its out of conference games and the Broncos suffer from their success last year. The Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs get the nod, then. Super Bowl winners not making the playoffs? Gulp.

AFC    
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs

NFC
Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks

SUPER BOWL 51 (LI)

From a pure prediction point of view, I am looking at the New England Patriots in the AFC as being dominant in their division and in a situation where they are strong across the field, with a QB who will have a four game rest to start the season with and every incentive to deliver on the field. In the NFC, the Arizona Cardinals look to me to be the best team. It would be a magnificent Super Bowl if this came off. It feels a season too early for teams like the Jaguars, the Raiders or the Vikings to get to the big game, although the fancy prices – particularly of the Raiders – does appeal. It will be interesting to see who gets the bye week in the AFC for finishing with one of the best two records, because that might be the best clue as to who is challenging for honours.

I’m going to say the Vince Lombardi Trophy goes to Arizona in February 2017.

Oh, and the nation then dances like Drew Stanton...

[tikay]

Not absorbed all that yet Tal, but thank you.

Might just be one of those magnum opus things.

[Marky147]

Incred stuff, Tal.

Will have a read of it when I'm not snowed under.

Thanks for taking the time to do that, must have taken hours.

[nuros]

Looks very in depth, thanks Tal! Will definitely read when I get a chance.

[rinswun]

Very good Tal, great work and an entertaining, informative read. Cheers.

[booder]

Mighty impressive work