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Author Topic: Profitability Thresholds  (Read 3315 times)
jjandellis
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« on: November 17, 2016, 05:15:38 AM »

Recently I have been doing some HRC work and generated charts for push/fold and calling ranges at various stack depths/positions.

I did this as I had been using snapshove and realised that some of the edges I was taking were waaaaay to thin. My charts give me an illustration of chip ev profitability. Naturally I look to move up or down the chart somewhat making adjustments for whether I believe villain is jamming nash/too loose/too tight..and also ICM factors.

This is obviously a far from exact science...and one other to consider is perceived edge on the field ie. that I may decide to pass up certain supposed (slightly) +ev spots, as the profitability may be so minute and my stack may be utilised better down the line.

This is where I am having a problem!  Exactly where should I be setting the threshold at?

By chance I actually found this article:

http://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/profitability-thresholds-iii-the-variable-edge-model/


It's actually the third in a trilogy, with the first 2 effectively being works in progress to this point. The author still does not seem to be 100% confident in his model - and I was wondering if people can cast their eye over it and give their thoughts? Or what kind of edges they prescribe?
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2016, 07:05:55 AM »

Pissed post  but unless your opponents call correctly then it is often correct to shove wider than nash. This is a significantly greater affect when it is a blind vs blind situation compared to full ring as "natural" ranges become more accurate. Fwiw I also believe most humans will overestimate their edge, and usually by a significant amount in my experience. Furthermore, as discussed in some previous topics I created regarding this subject, that taking these edges has a sort of cumulative effect. Another factor would be the margin for error. Often I find that shoving a little wider is less of a mistake shoving tigher because of the aforementioned factors.

As a brief aside I find someone calling too wide to be extremely rare which we can also extrapolate to mean that it is more likely people call a little tight.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
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