Live game hand / situations

[Paul Walters]

Not really asking for the technical stuff about folding or calling here as it’s obvious. More of a question about how much emphasis do we put on live poker factors. Anyway story of the hand.

Me and a Skandi whos over here for the football. 6:50am and we are the only 2 left, Casino throws us out at 7.
Game is 1 / 2.
A bit about the skandi, Hes got about 1k in front of him. I have ~ 700. He’s told me the story how he was stuck 500 and ran his last 100 up to his stack now. He’s also got his chips stacked in 2 parts, his original buy in and his profit. He has tried and failed to take chips of the table at numerous points during the last hour. Regarding his play, he’d been aggressive but having one of those nights were he’s always got it so I couldn’t take much from it.
Anyway the hand.

I raise KsKc to £6.  he calls.
10s
He leads £17, he’s lead once before and had top set – although that was multiway.
I raise to £47 he calls.
Turn .
I bet £60, he thinks for about 30secs and shoves the lot.

I think for a few minutes, he stays quiet till I speak to him then says something like its simple either call and your behind or you’re winning, then attempts to call the clock.

I got the feeling that he locked up his win and was happy with this 1k stack. In normal circumstance we throw it in and hope he;s got 44 or maybe 10 10.

Do we ever consider folding giving the situation and how much emphasis do we put on the live game factors….

[Oxford_HRV]

I'd say we put a lot of emphasis on building a range. And live we should have quite a bit to go on anyway.

Im assuming the kind of hands you think villain is gonna flat pre with in this hand is QJ/KT a hell of a lot.
 TT about 50% (re raise other times) and 44 about 80% (re raise other times)

You mentioned villain has led out when you have had top set before. It would be good for our info to know how the texture of the board looked on that hand. Im going to assume it had some OESD/FD draw on it. Which is going to help with constructing a flop betting range in this hand.
When we have top set and block out a whole  chunk of villians made hands that bet. We can start to narrow down massively what hands they are betting when they have led out in a similar scenario before. So QJ looks very likely at this point in time and so do flush draws. On the turn when villain check raises all in for a ridicly huge amount i am almost 100% certain they have you beat.

Your post reads in a way that you think its obvious you should call. I personally dont think anyone would consider taking this line HU with 10mins left of a game with anything but the nuts. Villain has tried weeding several times and definitely wants to book a win. It would be suicidal to not have it because QJ makes up a part of your percieved range.

I also think in 'normal circumstances' we never flick it in either hoping villain has TT or 44 because the 9 is a really bad card to c/r all in on.

[SuuPRlim]

You have to call, because of how the equities of range vs range work here.

Because when you're ahead you have 98-100% and when you're behind you have 20%, Yeah he has a lot more QJ combos than TT and 44, even when you discount some sets from the turn play and give 100% of QJ, you do need to consider the chance of a AThh orsomething else odd. Not done or doing the maths but I'd think it's a clear call.

Sometimes you just gotta take your medicine

[Rexas]

I would want to go bigger on the flop and definitely bigger on the turn, get some chips in!

Fwiw I also agree with Dave, try and think of it from his point of view. If he's got K10, 44, 1010, even K4 (you are HU) then maybe he's thinking lets just see turn card that isn't a spade and get it in, because he's happy with his profit and what's currently in the middle.

I wouldn't necessarily put him on nitty scared money here because he has the option to walk away at any time, and it's not like the game is still full and he's not been there long so he's chosen to stay sat down and play till the end of the night. If he was a proper nit and super scared of losing his profit he'd have quit.

I definitely agree that him stacking his chips how he has and trying to take money off the table is indicative of him probably not having a bluff in him here, but if we're going to say that then I think it's also relevant that he's got us covered by a good £300 which makes it a little easier for him to put it in, knowing if he loses then he's still not done that much of his original stake.

That said, this is live poker and it's always super hard to properly analyse live hands without actually being there because of all the "live game factors" as you call them, so if you honestly think he only ever does this with the nuts then as soon as you remove yourself from having the second nuts folding becomes easy.

[arbboy]

You have to call, because of how the equities of range vs range work here.

Because when you're ahead you have 98-100% and when you're behind you have 20%, Yeah he has a lot more QJ combos than TT and 44, even when you discount some sets from the turn play and give 100% of QJ, you do need to consider the chance of a AThh orsomething else odd. Not done or doing the maths but I'd think it's a clear call.

Sometimes you just gotta take your medicine

Was going to post but just say exactly this but Dave did it in a much more readable way than I would have. You have the second nuts and still have a decent redraw to the nuts on the off chance you are currently snookered.

[muckthenuts]

Idk guys, i mean the jam is pretty huge! Our turn sizing is small too so he'd be tempted to just see a river with lots of his draw combos i'd imagine.

Do people ever bluff in these spots? Don't think so. Would he overbet jam with TT or 99 when turn now gives him 3rd or 4th nuts? Also probably not.

It's one of those where calling probably isn't a mistake, but if you get live spidey senses then getting away might actually be a great move here.

[Paul Walters]

I folded,
He showed 10 6 off lol

I knew at the time if you done any forms of analytical analysis we call but i just couldn't see him having anything other than JQ.
SUuperlim gets it spot on, in hind sight just stick it in and its unfortunate when were beat.

I guess he'd locked up his 1k win and needed to win the hand to stay there.

Moral of the story, don't be a hero and people do weird stuff.

[shipitgood]

Dave summed it up excellently.

My "read" was you had posted this due to the fact you had called and lost to jq.

[SuuPRlim]

you said it.

It's a live cash game, it's late, people are tired. Weird things are going to happen.

[arbboy]

you said it.

It's a live cash game, it's late, people are tired. Weird things are going to happen.

It's head up as well.  Like i am every folding the 2nd nuts with 10 outs on the river for the nuts late on in a live heads up cash game to a scandi!