Bank of Timex returns and is licensed

[Doobs]

https://pokershares.com/pokershares#/



I am looking forward to a few 0.9 mark ups.

[doubleup]

presumably illegal in UK?

[cambridgealex]

Site looks great. Amazed he's got it licensed.

[Longines]

https://fastoffshore.com/what-we-do/packaged-services/online-gambling-license-in-curacao/

$20k and access to a photocopier doesn't look to be the most onerous of licensing requirements.

[arbboy]

Site looks great. Amazed he's got it licensed.

This.  Shame he can't offer a sporting index style two way offering for the really big events where he knows none of the players would deliberately donk their stack off to land a gamble with him because the buy in to the MTT is much bigger than the amount they could ever win from him by tanking the event so we could see how strong his opinion exactly is by offering 2 way prices and how tight a margin he would work to (thus showing how confident he was in his valuations/prices of players).  ie allowing a punter to not only buy a player but also sell their action as well and turn Timex into the buyer.  

For example Timex makes a player 2.0 mark up he offers you the chance to buy him at 2.2 and sell him at 1.8.  He should be equally happy with both bets if he is confident in his valuation.  Two way action would obviously smooth his variance as well as in theory he just nicks the 0.4 units risk free if he gets balanced action.  Obviously in reality, like bookmaking, this very rarely happens.

Much easier to offer a one way price on an outcome and potentially shaft customers with a terrible offering.  I could offer evens Rooney to score on Saturday but not have to offer the two way price (obviously with a margin built in for my effort) for him not to score.

[DaveShoelace]

The function to buy fractions of percentages seems to be what is missing here. Lots of casual punters would like to throw down 10 bucks on Negreanu in a 10k event.

Obviously this is a business that thrives on big single bets rather than lots of little ones though.

[arbboy]

The function to buy fractions of percentages seems to be what is missing here. Lots of casual punters would like to throw down 10 bucks on Negreanu in a 10k event.

Obviously this is a business that thrives on big single bets rather than lots of little ones though.

Hundreds of small casual punters are way more likely to take bad prices than single big hitters who you generally only see if you have priced up something incorrectly.  The old margin v volume debate.

[Ledders]

Business model has to be to attract recs in small numbers I think. I'd be pleasantly surprised if those buy options are going to be profitable very often. He'll get absolutely filled in if he tries to go on thin margins if he'll lay decent amounts.

If we get a spread index like Arbboy says then it really gets interesting

As a game of opinions poker skill could be even better than sports.

[arbboy]

Will he close/restrict anyone's account for winning?   Has this been discussed by him?  If he offers up to 10% of a player can one punter just hoover the entire 10% even if he is a winner and has the best of it?  Are his opening prices 'fixed' until the whole % offered is sold or if a serious judge comes in and backs player A will timex increase the buy price for future punters in the same event who buy subsequently?

I assume he thinks he can price these things up better than anyone else and is happy to take on all comers to begin with.  When reality sets in that some people will beat him long term how will he deal with that?  Not like he can do it quietly like bookmakers do to punters because he will only be restricting shrewdies who will instant post on forums about being restricted so i assume it won't happen right?

[Doobs]

Site looks great. Amazed he's got it licensed.

This.  Shame he can't offer a sporting index style two way offering for the really big events where he knows none of the players would deliberately donk their stack off to land a gamble with him because the buy in to the MTT is much bigger than the amount they could ever win from him by tanking the event so we could see how strong his opinion exactly is by offering 2 way prices and how tight a margin he would work to (thus showing how confident he was in his valuations/prices of players).  ie allowing a punter to not only buy a player but also sell their action as well and turn Timex into the buyer.  

For example Timex makes a player 2.0 mark up he offers you the chance to buy him at 2.2 and sell him at 1.8.  He should be equally happy with both bets if he is confident in his valuation.  Two way action would obviously smooth his variance as well as in theory he just nicks the 0.4 units risk free if he gets balanced action.  Obviously in reality, like bookmaking, this very rarely happens.

Much easier to offer a one way price on an outcome and potentially shaft customers with a terrible offering.  I could offer evens Rooney to score on Saturday but not have to offer the two way price (obviously with a margin built in for my effort) for him not to score.

Laying 2 way action to a population rich in scumbags is going to be the road to ruin, surely? 

To be fair to him, nobody else has the bankroll/cajones to do this, so it can't be such easy money.  And there is little evidence he is setting any terrible prices.  He priced up the cate hall grudge match at tight margins for instance.

Easy for people to mouth off from the sidelines without risking a dime.

[arbboy]

Site looks great. Amazed he's got it licensed.

This.  Shame he can't offer a sporting index style two way offering for the really big events where he knows none of the players would deliberately donk their stack off to land a gamble with him because the buy in to the MTT is much bigger than the amount they could ever win from him by tanking the event so we could see how strong his opinion exactly is by offering 2 way prices and how tight a margin he would work to (thus showing how confident he was in his valuations/prices of players).  ie allowing a punter to not only buy a player but also sell their action as well and turn Timex into the buyer.  

For example Timex makes a player 2.0 mark up he offers you the chance to buy him at 2.2 and sell him at 1.8.  He should be equally happy with both bets if he is confident in his valuation.  Two way action would obviously smooth his variance as well as in theory he just nicks the 0.4 units risk free if he gets balanced action.  Obviously in reality, like bookmaking, this very rarely happens.

Much easier to offer a one way price on an outcome and potentially shaft customers with a terrible offering.  I could offer evens Rooney to score on Saturday but not have to offer the two way price (obviously with a margin built in for my effort) for him not to score.

Laying 2 way action to a population rich in scumbags is going to be the road to ruin, surely? 

To be fair to him, nobody else has the bankroll/cajones to do this, so it can't be such easy money.  And there is little evidence he is setting any terrible prices.  He priced up the cate hall grudge match at tight margins for instance.

Easy for people to mouth off from the sidelines without risking a dime.

Sure i appreciate it isn't easy and the scumbag factor is massive.  Also the potential to get screwed in deals is there.  How does he settle a deal like 9 high like a boss had when he 'bought' the trophy?  Official result only?  So many pitfalls to dodge.  Good luck to him. 

[LeKnave]

Will he close/restrict anyone's account for winning?   Has this been discussed by him?  If he offers up to 10% of a player can one punter just hoover the entire 10% even if he is a winner and has the best of it?  Are his opening prices 'fixed' until the whole % offered is sold or if a serious judge comes in and backs player A will timex increase the buy price for future punters in the same event who buy subsequently?

I assume he thinks he can price these things up better than anyone else and is happy to take on all comers to begin with.  When reality sets in that some people will beat him long term how will he deal with that?  Not like he can do it quietly like bookmakers do to punters because he will only be restricting shrewdies who will instant post on forums about being restricted so i assume it won't happen right?

PokerShares ‏@pokershares  11h11 hours ago
@JonyMunro 100%. Limits will be larger for people we trust than most users & like a sportsbook we'll cut off people we think are beating us

[arbboy]

Will he close/restrict anyone's account for winning?   Has this been discussed by him?  If he offers up to 10% of a player can one punter just hoover the entire 10% even if he is a winner and has the best of it?  Are his opening prices 'fixed' until the whole % offered is sold or if a serious judge comes in and backs player A will timex increase the buy price for future punters in the same event who buy subsequently?

I assume he thinks he can price these things up better than anyone else and is happy to take on all comers to begin with.  When reality sets in that some people will beat him long term how will he deal with that?  Not like he can do it quietly like bookmakers do to punters because he will only be restricting shrewdies who will instant post on forums about being restricted so i assume it won't happen right?

PokerShares ‏@pokershares  11h11 hours ago
@JonyMunro 100%. Limits will be larger for people we trust than most users & like a sportsbook we'll cut off people we think are beating us

Limits will be larger for people who lose long term he means then? How is there a trust issue?  Surely you pay for your action before the bet is placed so why does trust even come into it from a customer's point of view.  They are taking all the risk trusting Timex to pay surely?  Secondly cutting high stakes pro A because he is beating you isn't going to stop you seeing his action as he will have 50/100 other high stakes mates who can simply put the bet on for him. 

[Omm]

Just watched the YouTube clip and its seems to me he has kept it as simple as possible. Seems to me that if the process is as easy as he makes it sound this could become quite popular in the community.

[LeKnave]

Will he close/restrict anyone's account for winning?   Has this been discussed by him?  If he offers up to 10% of a player can one punter just hoover the entire 10% even if he is a winner and has the best of it?  Are his opening prices 'fixed' until the whole % offered is sold or if a serious judge comes in and backs player A will timex increase the buy price for future punters in the same event who buy subsequently?

I assume he thinks he can price these things up better than anyone else and is happy to take on all comers to begin with.  When reality sets in that some people will beat him long term how will he deal with that?  Not like he can do it quietly like bookmakers do to punters because he will only be restricting shrewdies who will instant post on forums about being restricted so i assume it won't happen right?

PokerShares ‏@pokershares  11h11 hours ago
@JonyMunro 100%. Limits will be larger for people we trust than most users & like a sportsbook we'll cut off people we think are beating us

Limits will be larger for people who lose long term he means then? How is there a trust issue?  Surely you pay for your action before the bet is placed so why does trust even come into it from a customer's point of view.  They are taking all the risk trusting Timex to pay surely?  Secondly cutting high stakes pro A because he is beating you isn't going to stop you seeing his action as he will have 50/100 other high stakes mates who can simply put the bet on for him.  

I think he's referring to the people who you can buy %s of. People he feels won't collude for a shady deal and make the amount bankoftimex pays out increase unfairly.

E.g. He might offer 200% of Mercier to punters but only 5% of Chino Rheem