*****"The Official 2017 Golf Betting and Discussion Thread"*****

[The Camel]

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

I think you are one of the smartest people on Blondepoker Doubleup.

But this is the worst advice ever IMO.

By all means hedge for psychological reasons if you must. But don't kid yourself it can be value. If your blind lay has been matched, you are taking the worst of it.

To clarify, I wasn't suggesting that you put up a lay and leave it there, I was suggesting that you click on the lay side in a liquid market. 

I really wish people wouldn't perpetuate the myth that Betfair prices are always correct.  The only long term success I have had there is laying.

You honestly think the difficulty of the finishing holes isn't built into the price?

[doubleup]

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

I think you are one of the smartest people on Blondepoker Doubleup.

But this is the worst advice ever IMO.

By all means hedge for psychological reasons if you must. But don't kid yourself it can be value. If your blind lay has been matched, you are taking the worst of it.

To clarify, I wasn't suggesting that you put up a lay and leave it there, I was suggesting that you click on the lay side in a liquid market. 

I really wish people wouldn't perpetuate the myth that Betfair prices are always correct.  The only long term success I have had there is laying.

You honestly think the difficulty of the finishing holes isn't built into the price?

In general terms I think that people are more likely to overbet than underbet - free money! eg 1.01 blind laying is profitable on horses (unfortunately it's impossible to get to the front of the queue, where you have to be, as not all the 1.01 will be matched).  I think that a lot just look at the lead and number of holes left, without considering the double-bogey potential (perhaps with some obvious exceptions like the 17th on Sawgrass).

I am perfectly happy to admit I might be wrong on this point, because it is based on limited observation and gathering the actual data would be very difficult and the sample size wouldn't be conclusive, but I'd be surprised if it was a huge mistake.

[rinswun]

Hatton won to salvage the day. Lost 1.17 points. Pieters and Casey, both 40s outright ew, won.

My bets for tomorrow:

Berger (13/8) to beat Mickelson
Grace (5/6) to beat McGirt
Haas (11/10) to beat Willett

1/3 again. -2.07 so far. Pieters lost and Casey won, neither eliminated but neither through either a sweat this evening.

For this final group stage, taking the obvious approach of backing guys who top their groups against guys who are already eliminated. Motivation pretty key and I don't think these particular games are priced appropriately.

Kevin Na (5/6) v Chris Wood - Wood's already out and his missus is due any minute. Can't see him particularly putting in a shift here.
Mickelson (4/5) v JB Holmes
William McGirt (19/20) v Andy Sullivan - Sadly Sally's slide from the top of the game continues. Already out and seemingly out of his depth.
Brooks Koepka (Evs) v Patrick Reed - Reed has yet to find his form this year and even his beloved Matchplay hasn't sparked him. I was looking to be against Brooks this week but two straight 6&5 victories is some going and he'll be desperate to carry this form into a deep run.

[Karabiner]

Excellent starts from both of my girls: -6 for In Gee Chun and -2 for Lizette Salas.

Not so much for my darts in the WCG although Berger still has a chance.

[Karabiner]

After some indredible heroice from Matt Fitzpatrick to birdie the final four holes and come from two down after 12 to beat Justin Thomas 2&1 with Chris Wood simultaeously defeating Kevin Na to create a playoff to win the group it was all for naught as Kevin Na makes a fantastic birdie at the first, almost holing his approach to deny him.

All three WPG darts appear to have missed the board.

[rinswun]

Went 3/4 in the third group stage to bring the record back to 5/5 and the total to -0.3 points. Pieters was eliminated so that was an additional -2 points on the outright, but Casey came through his sudden death tie with Schwartzel to advance.

Meanwhile, Jon Rahm destroyed his idol Sergio to advance. Insanely talented kid.

[Rubbish2407]

Women's Golf bets aren't dead and buried but aren't in fantastic shape either after two rounds.

After telling the World that Sung Hyun Park hadn't shot an LPGA round in the 70's this year she opened with, you've guessed it, a 70. She's -5, four shots off the pace.

After telling the World that Lizette Salas didn't have a bogey last week she's managed to have six so far. Currently T40 at -1 so needs a couple of good rounds.

After telling the World that Ariya Jutanugarn could be the next Female Tiger Woods she goes out and shoots a two over 74. Came back with a 67 yesterday but has to go some over the next couple of days.

Of the other notable mentions Lexi is -5 and the others missed the cut including World number one Lydia Ko?

In other news Moriya Jutanugarn and Azahara Munoz both had holes in one on the first day. Yet again there's zero tv coverage of either shot which now makes four aces, one caught on film in two weeks. How hard can it be to set a camera up on a par three? Laughably, on the LPGA website they have an highlights reel where there is no mention of any holes in one. You would think an ace might make it onto an highlights package?

I did have a few photos to post but really struggling with photobucket. Is there a different site I can use?

Later

[rinswun]

All the matches today look priced about right to be fair. Was tempted by Zach Johnson most but sitting out.

[Karabiner]

It's a packed leaderboard in Puerto Rico at the halfway stage with about ten players within one shot of the lead.

Alex Cejka is one of the group lurking a shot off the lead and looks a decent value 12/1 poke(bigger on betty) for those of a punty disposition looking for a sweat(yes you Woodsey).

[rinswun]

Was on a plane for the last 16 and quarters. However, all set up for an absolute blockbuster final between and Rahm. We all know about the rookie curse at Augusta but he could very well be the guy to break it. Those of us on at the fancyish prices for The Masters and all others majors as put up on Fred will be eating value pie for a few months.

[Doobs]

Was on a plane for the last 16 and quarters. However, all set up for an absolute blockbuster final between and Rahm. We all know about the rookie curse at Augusta but he could very well be the guy to break it. Those of us on at the fancyish prices for The Masters and all others majors as put up on Fred will be eating value pie for a few months.

Thanks for whoever put up Rahm on TfT.  Thread must be on quite a run.

[Karabiner]

Lizzie Salas blitzed her final round for a bogey-free 65(-7) but it looks like being just too late even for top 10 wagers.

In Gee Chun my last hope for a positive result now.

 

[rinswun]

Good luck!

[buzzharvey22]

Women's Golf bets aren't dead and buried but aren't in fantastic shape either after two rounds.

After telling the World that Sung Hyun Park hadn't shot an LPGA round in the 70's this year she opened with, you've guessed it, a 70. She's -5, four shots off the pace.

After telling the World that Lizette Salas didn't have a bogey last week she's managed to have six so far. Currently T40 at -1 so needs a couple of good rounds.

After telling the World that Ariya Jutanugarn could be the next Female Tiger Woods she goes out and shoots a two over 74. Came back with a 67 yesterday but has to go some over the next couple of days.

Of the other notable mentions Lexi is -5 and the others missed the cut including World number one Lydia Ko?

In other news Moriya Jutanugarn and Azahara Munoz both had holes in one on the first day. Yet again there's zero tv coverage of either shot which now makes four aces, one caught on film in two weeks. How hard can it be to set a camera up on a par three? Laughably, on the LPGA website they have an highlights reel where there is no mention of any holes in one. You would think an ace might make it onto an highlights package?

I did have a few photos to post but really struggling with photobucket. Is there a different site I can use?

Later

There should really just be a camera for every single shot Aza Munoz plays in my opinion.

[tikay]

Just put this up on TfT.

The LPGA heads to California this week for the Kia Classic. Defending Champion is World number one Lydia Ko. Bets first, reasons after.

£25 E/W Ariya Jutanugarn 10/1 S Jam

£15  E/W Sung Hyun Park 16/1 various

£20 Top 10 finish, Lizette Salas 10/1 Bet 36+5

Only four Women have shot four bogey free rounds in a tournament since 2011 and two of them happened last week. World number one Lydia Ko and Local Girl Lizette Salas had the blemish free rounds and Salas heads home for this weeks tournament in high spirits.

Her best finish here is T2 in 2014 and she has posted a couple of top tens before. She is in great form at the moment and if she can hole some putts this week then a top ten is very likely.

Ariya Jutanugarn is a machine at the moment. Her last four tournaments are T2, 2, T8, T3. It's only a matter of time before she wins again and Stanley Jammo have taken the view that it won't be this week. Most firms are 7/1 and they've inexplicably gone 10/1. She could quite easily be the Tiger Woods of Womens Golf, only 21 and been a pro for two years, she's ridiculously long, 49th in driving distance and only uses a three wood. She currently leads the way in Birdies and tops the money list for 2017. Ariya won five times last year and could easily surpass that this year. Maybe the last time we see double figures for her to win a tournament before a balls been hit.

Sung Hyun Park has one of the best swings in Golf. Awesome scorer, number one in scoring average and Rounds under par and is playing in her first season on the LPGA tour. Again, it's only a matter of time before she wins and I hope I'm on her when she does. She's played two tournaments this year and hasn't shot a round in the 70's. I've played five tournaments this year and I also haven't shot a round in the 70's. Unfortunately, mine are all in the 80's and 90's whilst hers are all in the 60's. Bitch!

There's a couple of other bets I considered, I'm not recommending them but I'll put them up.

Lydia Ko is in impressive form and is the defending Champ so likes the track. At 12/1 though I've passed her over for two that I feel are better value.

Lexi Thompson missed the cut last week after shooting -4 in the first two rounds. It was the highest cut line for an LPGA tournament. I didn't see any of her rounds but she took 60 odd putts which isn't good. Hopefully she has worked on that aspect of her game and is currently 25/1 with various firms. We were betting her a couple of weeks ago at 12/1 and I don't think missing the cut will have made her a bad player overnight.

Former World number one Yani Tseng has showed signs that she might be coming back into a bit of form. She dispensed with her coach and caddy for whatever reasons and has had a couple of bad years. Her old coach is back on her bag though and although she has missed three cuts this year she also has had a T14. You can get 400/1 on her not discovering the form that won her 5 majors and $10 million.

Maude Aimee Leblanc is another you would have to take a massive leap of faith to back. She missed the cut last week but shot a 64 in her second round. The 77 in her first round killed any chances of her doing anything on the weekend. She was T7 in the Australian Open in Feb though so that sort of form and no stupid 77's will make the 400/1 currently available look ridiculous come Sunday.

All the best if you have a flutter.

Hope Peter is okay and Horsey as well. Guess Tikay will outlive us all but glad you're back posting.

Later.

We were a shade unlucky with the 2 of these we were able to get on.

We were EW Sung Hyun Park (1,2,3) & she finished tied 4th I believe.

We were Top 10 on Lizette Salas & she was........11th.

So we hit the woodwork twice.

Never mind, we go again this week all being well.

The Salas bet (£20) was facilitated by Doobs, so I've sent him a crisp new £20 note this morning by Bank TX.