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Author Topic: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin)  (Read 302164 times)
EvilPie
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« Reply #285 on: November 02, 2017, 02:58:44 PM »

I'm so pleased I haven't got any of these coins because I really wouldn't have a clue what to do with them. Selling seems to be a good idea in case there's a bubble due to burst but they just keep going up so why would you?

Can't fault anyone who's riding the wave and I truly hope it continues for you all.

Think I'm just going to stick to my 1.5% annual return from a savings account. It's just easier Cheesy

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« Reply #286 on: November 02, 2017, 04:02:16 PM »

I'm so pleased I haven't got any of these coins because I really wouldn't have a clue what to do with them. Selling seems to be a good idea in case there's a bubble due to burst but they just keep going up so why would you?

Can't fault anyone who's riding the wave and I truly hope it continues for you all.

Think I'm just going to stick to my 1.5% annual return from a savings account. It's just easier Cheesy



I think its a bit loose to not be selling some % of your portfolio. I've done it all the way up and not regretted a single sell, even though the price has doubled from here. Its easier to maintain emotional control and therefore overall results by selling some, even if you don't achieve maximum gains, I don't think it can be a leak. No one goes broke selling on a double (insert multiple here).

Crazy movements last night, I was awake for the new high we touched 6940 on Bitmex before I went to bed we'd settled around 6840 or so. Korea went absolutely nuts, they are at a 5% premium atm, 7400 compared to 7050-7100 on the Western exchanges. Curious to see if 7k can hold, the last wave has been meteoric and I'm pretty scared as the downside is usually even quicker.

Lots of funky action going on at the moment too. Many people on twitter have been excited by the top contract holders getting liquidated during the surges but its possible to hedge yourself neutral vs btc and collect the tokens from the next fork for free. The futures on Bitcoin Segwit 2x is approximately 0.14 btc atm, so a pretty tasty arb if you can work through it all. I had it explained to me but its kinda complicated and I don't think i could explain how to do it properly. I think it involves some of the exchanges supporting forks and others currently refusing.
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #287 on: November 02, 2017, 04:07:08 PM »



Proper lol'd.

I sold all my alts a few days ago for btc. It's an absolute bloodbath out there for alt coins right now and right at this moment I am considering going 90% alts again just until before the fork. When there's blood on the streets...

Why not wait until after the snapshot has been taken?

I would convert back to btc before the fork.
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« Reply #288 on: November 02, 2017, 05:01:10 PM »

I'm so pleased I haven't got any of these coins because I really wouldn't have a clue what to do with them. Selling seems to be a good idea in case there's a bubble due to burst but they just keep going up so why would you?

Can't fault anyone who's riding the wave and I truly hope it continues for you all.

Think I'm just going to stick to my 1.5% annual return from a savings account. It's just easier Cheesy



I think its a bit loose to not be selling some % of your portfolio. I've done it all the way up and not regretted a single sell, even though the price has doubled from here. Its easier to maintain emotional control and therefore overall results by selling some, even if you don't achieve maximum gains, I don't think it can be a leak. No one goes broke selling on a double (insert multiple here).

Crazy movements last night, I was awake for the new high we touched 6940 on Bitmex before I went to bed we'd settled around 6840 or so. Korea went absolutely nuts, they are at a 5% premium atm, 7400 compared to 7050-7100 on the Western exchanges. Curious to see if 7k can hold, the last wave has been meteoric and I'm pretty scared as the downside is usually even quicker.

Lots of funky action going on at the moment too. Many people on twitter have been excited by the top contract holders getting liquidated during the surges but its possible to hedge yourself neutral vs btc and collect the tokens from the next fork for free. The futures on Bitcoin Segwit 2x is approximately 0.14 btc atm, so a pretty tasty arb if you can work through it all. I had it explained to me but its kinda complicated and I don't think i could explain how to do it properly. I think it involves some of the exchanges supporting forks and others currently refusing.



^ 5 min candles from earlier.
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« Reply #289 on: November 02, 2017, 05:10:09 PM »


Having a regulated way of accessing an investment in bitcoin is a game changer for me. I still wouldn't buy bitcoin at these levels, just waiting for the sharks to circle and short the life out of BTC and get it back to more sensible levels. Then we can start looking at the fundamentals rather than momentum which seems to have the upper hand right now.

When you say sensible levels, if bitcoin reached say 20k next April then plummeted down to 6.5k by May (the current value) would you be looking to buy then?

BTC is overpriced today, so I don't know where you get $20k from by next April apart from sticking your finger in the air thinking of a number multiplying it by 4. If your prophecy did come true and we are sat here next April with BTC at the dizzy heights of $20k, then my entry point would be after it has fallen 75%. Even then in a falling market, I wouldn't have a clue where the bottom is (who does) but averaging down when everyone else is heading for the exit is a good strategy to have.

If BTC does carry on going north, I am not going to lose any sleep over it. As I said previously there are lots of other interesting more transparent investments out there. Investing in Robotics and AI is far more credible to me right now than cryptos and even with a position in BTC, I wouldn't hold the coin itself rather use a tracker within a tax-free wrapper. It would also form part of a BALANCED portfolio. There has to be nothing worse than making a million and paying HMRC a couple of hundred grand in tax because you haven't planned properly. I suspect the money has already been made in the crypto currency world, and mainstream adoption should worry anyone that is balls deep with these investments.

 
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acegooner
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« Reply #290 on: November 02, 2017, 05:11:38 PM »


Having a regulated way of accessing an investment in bitcoin is a game changer for me. I still wouldn't buy bitcoin at these levels, just waiting for the sharks to circle and short the life out of BTC and get it back to more sensible levels. Then we can start looking at the fundamentals rather than momentum which seems to have the upper hand right now.

When you say sensible levels, if bitcoin reached say 20k next April then plummeted down to 6.5k by May (the current value) would you be looking to buy then?

BTC is overpriced today, so I don't know where you get $20k from by next April apart from sticking your finger in the air thinking of a number multiplying it by 4. If your prophecy did come true and we are sat here next April with BTC at the dizzy heights of $20k, then my entry point would be after it has fallen 75%. Even then in a falling market, I wouldn't have a clue where the bottom is (who does) but averaging down when everyone else is heading for the exit is a good strategy to have.

If BTC does carry on going north, I am not going to lose any sleep over it. As I said previously there are lots of other interesting more transparent investments out there. Investing in Robotics and AI is far more credible to me right now than cryptos and even with a position in BTC, I wouldn't hold the coin itself rather use a tracker within a tax-free wrapper. It would also form part of a BALANCED portfolio. There has to be nothing worse than making a million and paying HMRC a couple of hundred grand in tax because you haven't planned properly. I suspect the money has already been made in the crypto currency world, and mainstream adoption should worry anyone that is balls deep with these investments. As you are quite young, read up on what George Soros did to the GBP in 1992.

 
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #291 on: November 02, 2017, 05:25:11 PM »


Having a regulated way of accessing an investment in bitcoin is a game changer for me. I still wouldn't buy bitcoin at these levels, just waiting for the sharks to circle and short the life out of BTC and get it back to more sensible levels. Then we can start looking at the fundamentals rather than momentum which seems to have the upper hand right now.

When you say sensible levels, if bitcoin reached say 20k next April then plummeted down to 6.5k by May (the current value) would you be looking to buy then?

BTC is overpriced today, so I don't know where you get $20k from by next April apart from sticking your finger in the air thinking of a number multiplying it by 4. If your prophecy did come true and we are sat here next April with BTC at the dizzy heights of $20k, then my entry point would be after it has fallen 75%. Even then in a falling market, I wouldn't have a clue where the bottom is (who does) but averaging down when everyone else is heading for the exit is a good strategy to have.

If BTC does carry on going north, I am not going to lose any sleep over it. As I said previously there are lots of other interesting more transparent investments out there. Investing in Robotics and AI is far more credible to me right now than cryptos and even with a position in BTC, I wouldn't hold the coin itself rather use a tracker within a tax-free wrapper. It would also form part of a BALANCED portfolio. There has to be nothing worse than making a million and paying HMRC a couple of hundred grand in tax because you haven't planned properly. I suspect the money has already been made in the crypto currency world, and mainstream adoption should worry anyone that is balls deep with these investments.

 

Yes, this is exactly what I did, I was speaking hypothetically.
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« Reply #292 on: November 03, 2017, 03:55:26 PM »

The Isle of Man has granted a licence to an Ethereum blockchain based lottery

https://www.coindesk.com/isle-man-grants-license-ethereum-based-lottery/

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peejaytwo
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« Reply #293 on: November 08, 2017, 01:34:24 PM »


Three reasons why bitcoin could go to $100,000
Over to Dominic in a minute, but first just a quick rundown of pieces you should take a look at on the website today.

David C Stevenson looks at a couple of intriguing peer-to-peer lenders and if today’s piece gets you all excited about cryptocurrencies, Dominic has written previously on how and where to buy bitcoin.

Want to try before you buy? Get your first four issues of MoneyWeek, absolutely free, right here.

Now over to Dominic...

$100,000 bitcoin!

I thought that would get your attention.

A stupid, unfounded prognostication?

Probably.

But here are three reasons it could happen.

How to justify an extraordinary headline

When competing for readers in the ultra-competitive universe that is the world wide web, it pays to have sexy headlines. And one of the delicate tightropes my editor, John Stepek (who writes them) has to walk is to make the headline alluring, while staying truthful to the piece.

Get this wrong (and he very rarely does) and yours truly gets the headline fired back at me two years later by petty trolls anxious to undermine my every utterance.

So just to qualify this headline (which actually happens to be one that I did write), I am describing why bitcoin could get to $100,000. I am not saying that it will.

1. Portfolio allocation and career risk

Cash, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, gold – these are different asset classes. There is crossover between them, of course, but they are each in themselves classed as different assets.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a new asset class. They have qualities of cash, qualities of gold and, as the ICO (initial coin offering – launches of new cryptocurrencies) movement grows, they will have qualities of shares too, but they are in themselves an asset class. As the space grows, crypto could become a core feature of portfolios, just as other assets now are.

With the market currently rising as it is, investors will demand it of their fund managers and financial planners, who will then have to deliver, or many will take  their business elsewhere.

It’s a process that financial blogger Josh Brown, aka The Reformed Broker, calls “institutional ass-covering”. He argues that the career risk involved in not being in an asset-class that is rising, is what fuelled the hedge fund mania of the 1990s and the commodities boom of the 2000s.

More and more crypto products will be invented to meet this rising demand, including, eventually, a proper bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) of some kind (we’ll get there eventually). This is the gradual institutionalisation of the space.

The total value of the global stocks is around $80trn. The government bond market is perhaps twice the size. The current bitcoin and crypto market cap is sub-$200bn. It’s tiny in comparison.

My colleague Charlie Morris points out that by the end of its 70s bull market, the global gold market reached a value equivalent to the size of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The same happened with Japan by the end of the 80s, dotcom by 2000 and commodities by the end of the bull market of the 2000s.

It’s pretty clear that crypto is the bull market of this decade. The current value of the NYSE is around $20trn. Even if the market cap goes to a fifth of the size of the NYSE, then at $4trn, that would make the crypto market 20 times bigger than it is today, with bitcoin comfortably surpassing $100,000.

It “only” needs to rise around 14 times from today’s price of $7,100. Cripes it’s gone up 14 times enough times in the past!

2. “It’s another one of those”

This brings us to bitcoin’s “previous”. What it has done before is often a guide to what it might go on to do in the future. It’s why technical analysts look for “fractal patterns” – chart patterns that repeat.

If you read my piece last week, you might remember billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s principle of asking “which one of those is it?”



Click on the chart to see a larger version.

Fractal patterns, in a way, follows that principle. Below is a log chart of bitcoin since shortly after its inception. Log charts measure percentage gains rather than price.

I’ve marked the major highs in bitcoin’s evolution – $30, $200, $1,200 – with round numbers. I’ve put little red curvy lines marking the crash lows, which have followed (notice how it always seems to make a double bottom).

On a log chart, the current move, compared to those in the past, looks almost sober. If it were to enjoy a final spike such as in 2011 when it went to $30, or 2013 when it went to $1,200, lord knows where it would take us on the chart.

You can see that it went from $2 in late 2011 to $1,200 in 2013. A move of similar percentage magnitude from the 2015 low of $200 would take it over $100,000.

3. Satoshi Nakamoto, the architect of bitcoin, was a gold bug

Nakamoto understood gold’s role in the history of money: the value of its scarcity; the importance of its independence; the energy-intensive process you have to go through to produce it and so on.

He intentionally designed bitcoin to be a digital replica of gold.

Gold, much as I love it, is an analogue asset in a digital age. It’s why it’s often described as a barbarous relic (although this is in fact a misquote – Keynes was actually talking about the gold standard when he made the remark).

Nevertheless, bitcoin is digital gold. (By the way, searches for “bitcoin” on Google already exceed those for “gold”.)

There are roughly 190,000 tonnes of gold in existence.  The value of a tonne of gold is about $40m. Thus the value of all the gold in the world is currently around $8trn.

Let’s say all the 21 million bitcoins there will ever be are mined. If the value of those 21 million bitcoins were to match all the gold that has ever been mined, you’re looking at a price of $380,000 per bitcoin ($8trn/21 million).

Once upon a time – in fact even at the beginning of this year – the idea of one bitcoin exceeding the price of an ounce of gold seemed far-fetched. The ultimate target for die-hard bitcoin bugs must be market cap parity.

Then again… a swift reality check

Folks, I’ve enjoyed writing this article. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading it. Please don’t take these price projections too seriously. Yes, bitcoin could go a lot higher. But sentiment is also monumentally frothy. Given previous corrections, bitcoin could fall below $1,000 as easily as it goes to $10,000.

I’ll enjoy looking back in five years time and considering how stupid or prescient these projections are.

Until next time,
Dominic Frisby

Got a comment on this article? Tell us what you think on the MoneyWeek website.

Dominic Frisby,
MoneyWeek
@DominicFrisby
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Be brave and venture into emerging Europe
Parts of Eastern Europe may be cheap for a reason, says David C Stevenson. But that doesn’t necessarily make them bad investments. READ MORE ▸
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Longines
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« Reply #294 on: November 08, 2017, 02:42:45 PM »

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/07/parity_wallet_destroys_280m_ethereum/

There's a lot of hair-pulling among Ethereum alt-coin hoarders today – after a programming blunder in Parity's wallet software let one person bin $280m of the digital currency belonging to scores of strangers, probably permanently.
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SuperJez
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« Reply #295 on: November 08, 2017, 06:03:36 PM »

Segwit2X fork called OFF as of a few minutes ago https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/.

Price currently rallying, almost £6000 a coin Shocked
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #296 on: November 08, 2017, 06:16:38 PM »

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/928312928150982657/photo/1

Segwit 2x fork no longer going ahead. Markets going crazy, Bitmex just sold some futures for 51320$ lols

 Click to see full-size image.


Yesterday's Parity bug is pretty scary. The actual smart contracts were locked by a random developer sending kill messages to the global smart contracts instead of his own locking all of them. (Toned down technical explanation, might have made a mess of it)

Luckily for the general public most of the funds in these multi-sig smart contracts belonged to icos, so the individual hasn't lost too much, directly at least.
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #297 on: November 08, 2017, 06:47:56 PM »

Low of 7013 lol back to where we started today.

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SuperJez
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« Reply #298 on: November 08, 2017, 06:58:38 PM »

Haha yep.  Everything is all over the place.  Just like peoples opinions on this stuff.  You type "bitcoin" into google and you get a massive of articles in the UK press screaming BUBBLE BUBBLE BUBBLE CRASH IMMINENT.  As if they can predict that, what a joke.  Then you get articles on bitcoin websites screaming how its the future and its going to $500k a coin or something.  Again unpredictable and a joke.  The world cannot make up its mind.
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #299 on: November 08, 2017, 10:28:13 PM »

What a day wow. Just over a week ago I sold almost all my btc for alts and was planning on not holding btc for the "snapshot" to take the 2x coins since I expected alts to go on a dramatic bull run. Put a chunk in ethereum because it's the more stable alt and the rest in NEO.

This evening when I saw btc go from $7000 to $7700 in a moments notice I nearly shit myself and was wondering what I had gotten myself into, but money FINALLY pouring back into alts now.

If your portfolio is down today, then you should just quit crypto Tongue.
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