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Author Topic: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin)  (Read 302174 times)
lucky_scrote
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« Reply #495 on: December 13, 2017, 03:49:42 PM »

Please don't pat me on the back for a price prediction about BTC, that was more about a bit of fun more than anything else. Doing so just takes away all important and interesting things I have had to add to the thread.

I only hold a portfolio of cryptocurrencies not because I don't have a consideration for other assets or investments, it's because I don't understand them at all. I've never even looked at a share before. I have heard of NASDAQ and FTSE and that's about it. I fully understand diversification and risk, but I can't just throw money into shares because some person on the internet tells me to. Crypto's have their own market but it doesn't put them in the same class as other markets.



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« Reply #496 on: December 13, 2017, 04:37:58 PM »

I don't know anything about Crypto, I just got involved coincidentally because I took some coins when they were £2800 and they shot up and I thought, sick this looks fun, got my money back and now I'm just loving it.

I guess I am classic Immature investor Tongue

Got dem benjis whooooaaaaaaaa
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acegooner
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« Reply #497 on: December 14, 2017, 08:44:34 AM »

Please don't pat me on the back for a price prediction about BTC, that was more about a bit of fun more than anything else. Doing so just takes away all important and interesting things I have had to add to the thread.

I only hold a portfolio of cryptocurrencies not because I don't have a consideration for other assets or investments, it's because I don't understand them at all. I've never even looked at a share before. I have heard of NASDAQ and FTSE and that's about it. I fully understand diversification and risk, but I can't just throw money into shares because some person on the internet tells me to. Crypto's have their own market but it doesn't put them in the same class as other markets.





The stock market is infinitely more transparent than cryptocurrency. It would take you 15 minutes to figure out what the NASDAQ exchange is, and some of the very well known companies that form part of this index including the likes of Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Netflix amongst others.

But that's not my point, I am not telling you what you should and shouldn't invest in, I am merely pointing out the risks of having such a narrow range of investments. How do you mitigate that risk? By diversifying across all asset classes.

Bitcoin is discussed daily on Bloomberg and CNBC, I am sure you won't agree with half of what the analysts say. However, listen to what they say about the allocation of crypto in a balanced portfolio and how much it should form as a % of overall wealth. It makes a lot of sense. Even Mike Novogratz, a big Bitcoin bull says BTC is due a big correction.




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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #498 on: December 14, 2017, 09:15:39 AM »

Please don't pat me on the back for a price prediction about BTC, that was more about a bit of fun more than anything else. Doing so just takes away all important and interesting things I have had to add to the thread.

I only hold a portfolio of cryptocurrencies not because I don't have a consideration for other assets or investments, it's because I don't understand them at all. I've never even looked at a share before. I have heard of NASDAQ and FTSE and that's about it. I fully understand diversification and risk, but I can't just throw money into shares because some person on the internet tells me to. Crypto's have their own market but it doesn't put them in the same class as other markets.





The stock market is infinitely more transparent than cryptocurrency. It would take you 15 minutes to figure out what the NASDAQ exchange is, and some of the very well known companies that form part of this index including the likes of Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Netflix amongst others.

But that's not my point, I am not telling you what you should and shouldn't invest in, I am merely pointing out the risks of having such a narrow range of investments. How do you mitigate that risk? By diversifying across all asset classes.

Bitcoin is discussed daily on Bloomberg and CNBC, I am sure you won't agree with half of what the analysts say. However, listen to what they say about the allocation of crypto in a balanced portfolio and how much it should form as a % of overall wealth. It makes a lot of sense. Even Mike Novogratz, a big Bitcoin bull says BTC is due a big correction.






That's fine. Maybe bitcoin corrects maybe it doesn't. Maybe it goes up to 50k and corrects back to 20k, or maybe it doesn't. The fact that I believe we are seeing the tip of the iceberg for me means that I will just continue to let my money sit where it is. Perhaps bitcoin isn't the one, but I believe we are still seeing early stages. I expect the overall market cap to be many trillions of dollars and has the potential to shake up a lot of the financial sector.

We've been hearing bubble and correction before I even heard of a bitcoin. When this thread started the market cap was around 50 billion and its now standing at over half a trillion. If we are in a bubble, it is hard to deny the fact that this is going forwards for more reasons than greed and speculation.

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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #499 on: December 14, 2017, 09:41:27 AM »


Quote

I assume this is if the miners decide not to allow it?

I read something about it preventing arms deals and restricting funds to terrorists. Is this possible presumably by the same means?

If the miners can prevent transactions or of course allow them how is it better than what we have now? Does it mean that tech savvy miners have more say in financial policy than voted in Governments?

What's to stop a drugs cartel building a huge server farm and dedicating it to crypto mining? How many of the 'peers' have to approve before a transaction can happen?

I'm not supporting the banks here by the way. They're w**kers!!



I can't take credit for this answer but I hope it clears it up for you pie.

Miners are not 1 group. So all miners can decide for themselves what transactions to include. So if 1% of mining power will be mining your transaction, then your transaction will on average take 100 blocks to be included in a block. In other words, you have a chance of 1/100 to have your transaction included in the next block.
Furthermore, due to the pseudonymous nature of bitcoin transactions, its really difficult to distinguish between transactions, besides distinguishing what fee they pay. So game theory states that the higher the fee, the more likely your transaction is to be included in the next block. This is also what we observe today in the bitcoin network. Most (if not all) miners seem to be mining the transactions with the highest fees.
So there's nothing that stops drug cartels from building a bitcoin mining farm. 1 peer has to approve of the transaction to happen, namely the miner who was lucky enough to find the next block.
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« Reply #500 on: December 14, 2017, 09:57:09 AM »

no **** sherlock?

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« Reply #501 on: December 14, 2017, 09:59:27 AM »

Please don't pat me on the back for a price prediction about BTC, that was more about a bit of fun more than anything else. Doing so just takes away all important and interesting things I have had to add to the thread.

I only hold a portfolio of cryptocurrencies not because I don't have a consideration for other assets or investments, it's because I don't understand them at all. I've never even looked at a share before. I have heard of NASDAQ and FTSE and that's about it. I fully understand diversification and risk, but I can't just throw money into shares because some person on the internet tells me to. Crypto's have their own market but it doesn't put them in the same class as other markets.





The stock market is infinitely more transparent than cryptocurrency. It would take you 15 minutes to figure out what the NASDAQ exchange is, and some of the very well known companies that form part of this index including the likes of Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Netflix amongst others.

But that's not my point, I am not telling you what you should and shouldn't invest in, I am merely pointing out the risks of having such a narrow range of investments. How do you mitigate that risk? By diversifying across all asset classes.

Bitcoin is discussed daily on Bloomberg and CNBC, I am sure you won't agree with half of what the analysts say. However, listen to what they say about the allocation of crypto in a balanced portfolio and how much it should form as a % of overall wealth. It makes a lot of sense. Even Mike Novogratz, a big Bitcoin bull says BTC is due a big correction.






That's fine. Maybe bitcoin corrects maybe it doesn't. Maybe it goes up to 50k and corrects back to 20k, or maybe it doesn't. The fact that I believe we are seeing the tip of the iceberg for me means that I will just continue to let my money sit where it is. Perhaps bitcoin isn't the one, but I believe we are still seeing early stages. I expect the overall market cap to be many trillions of dollars and has the potential to shake up a lot of the financial sector.

We've been hearing bubble and correction before I even heard of a bitcoin. When this thread started the market cap was around 50 billion and its now standing at over half a trillion. If we are in a bubble, it is hard to deny the fact that this is going forwards for more reasons than greed and speculation.



There have been corrections before on BTC, two big ones as far as I am aware. This time is different, we are in the phase when taxi drivers are talking about BTC on the streets of London and NY, that's a true sign of a bubble. Coinbase has admitted if there was a rush for the door that they could not cope with the volume of trades (from what I hear they are struggling right now with the numbers people signing up).

With regards to the severity of any correction, tech stocks have fallen 90%+ before and even they weren't as volatile as cryptocurrencies. In my opinion, 90% of the currencies you see today will fall to zero when people realise they have no value. The other 10% will see a lot more than a 75% correction. I wouldn't be surprised to see 90%+

We will have to wait and see. But better to be prepared for the worst-case scenario than sit on your hands IMO.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #502 on: December 14, 2017, 11:11:42 AM »

'As Bitcoin prices charge ever higher, the same people who were dismissing Bitcoin as a "bubble" at $35 six weeks ago are now huffing about it being even more of a "bubble" at $235'

Bitcoin article from four and a half years ago - there's probably the exact same article been written in the past week just with bigger numbers.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-bitcoin-speculators-laugh-at-anyone-who-calls-it-a-bubble-2013-4?r=US&IR=T
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Jon MW
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« Reply #503 on: December 14, 2017, 12:05:18 PM »

I don't quite understand a couple of things.

...
We've been hearing bubble and correction before I even heard of a bitcoin. When this thread started the market cap was around 50 billion and its now standing at over half a trillion. If we are in a bubble, it is hard to deny the fact that this is going forwards for more reasons than greed and speculation.

It's very easy to deny - the whole reason bubbles happen is because of speculation and greed; if we're in a bubble it's almost by definition going forward for those reasons. More importantly - what possible evidence is there for the alternative?


.... I expect the overall market cap to be many trillions of dollars and has the potential to shake up a lot of the financial sector.
...

Why do you think this?

I've seen a few people on the internet make this claim - but none of them have given any concrete reasons why they think so.

Surely if the value of cryptocurrencies keep going up (which they need to if they're going to reach that level) - it'll mean it'll never be stable enough to use as an actual currency. And if that's the case - why would it be going up so much?

And if it does become stable enough to use as a currency - why would people choose to do so?
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« Reply #504 on: December 14, 2017, 03:41:31 PM »

Surely if the value of cryptocurrencies keep going up (which they need to if they're going to reach that level) - it'll mean it'll never be stable enough to use as an actual currency. And if that's the case - why would it be going up so much?

And if it does become stable enough to use as a currency - why would people choose to do so?

This is an interesting point. With Bitcoin rising quickly, why would anyone ever spend it on anything? Why would you pay 1 BTC for something if you expect to be able to pay 0.9 BTC for the same thing in a week?
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bergeroo
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« Reply #505 on: December 14, 2017, 05:46:20 PM »

I am officially on the Cardano bandwagon!
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #506 on: December 14, 2017, 06:02:56 PM »

I will reply to what I can, but for now I will post this: https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/7jj1so/rethereum_i_wrote_this_to_explain_ethereum_in/

An excellent explanation of the ethereum platform and hopefully helping educate people that cryptocurrency isn't just about currency.
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« Reply #507 on: December 14, 2017, 11:07:33 PM »

I am officially on the Cardano bandwagon!

Good lad
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« Reply #508 on: December 15, 2017, 06:19:08 AM »

Surely if the value of cryptocurrencies keep going up (which they need to if they're going to reach that level) - it'll mean it'll never be stable enough to use as an actual currency. And if that's the case - why would it be going up so much?

And if it does become stable enough to use as a currency - why would people choose to do so?

This is an interesting point. With Bitcoin rising quickly, why would anyone ever spend it on anything? Why would you pay 1 BTC for something if you expect to be able to pay 0.9 BTC for the same thing in a week?

Basically for exactly the same reason you might sell it, you don't know what it will be worth in a week.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #509 on: December 15, 2017, 09:03:03 AM »

Surely if the value of cryptocurrencies keep going up (which they need to if they're going to reach that level) - it'll mean it'll never be stable enough to use as an actual currency. And if that's the case - why would it be going up so much?

And if it does become stable enough to use as a currency - why would people choose to do so?

This is an interesting point. With Bitcoin rising quickly, why would anyone ever spend it on anything? Why would you pay 1 BTC for something if you expect to be able to pay 0.9 BTC for the same thing in a week?

Basically for exactly the same reason you might sell it, you don't know what it will be worth in a week.

The question wasn't in isolation.

If Bitcoin is going to become widely used, worth trillions and a significant factor in the financial system it has to increase in a consistent fashion.

i.e. You won't know what it will be worth next week, but you will know it will be worth more next month.

It's the equivalent of a country having negative inflation; except in that instance the country itself can put measures in place to weaken the strength of their currency and, perhaps more importantly, if it happens with cryptocurrency - people can just use their normal currency.

(a) If a cryptocurrency isn't used by anyone - it can be stable; but irrelevant
(b) If it's used by a lot of people - it can be stable, worth trillions and significant
But how can you get from (a) to (b) without making it a currency you can't actually use.

It's not clear to me how this contradiction can easily be resolved.
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