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Author Topic: Am I going mad?  (Read 1814 times)
The Camel
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« on: October 11, 2017, 05:54:13 PM »

Just had a disagreement with a couple of mates.

Has a 2/1 shot in a race where they are betting to 140 got a better chance of winning than a 2/1 shot in a 110% race?

Or have they both got the same chance?
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arbboy
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2017, 05:58:01 PM »

If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance.  If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning.
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The Camel
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2017, 06:03:13 PM »

If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance. 

Obviously, we all agree with that.

If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning.

The other way around surely?

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"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Tal
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2017, 06:04:30 PM »

Is it a 2/1 shot (in which case it's 33% in both) or is it the bookie's price that's 2/1 (in which case that's irrelevant to its actual chances of winning).

In the latter case, you could say that the bigger overround means the price given gives a greater than true assessment of its chance of winning (or, more accurately, in the bookie's opinion).  So, if it's 2/1 on the board in a 140% book, its chances of winning are perceived by the compiler to be less than 33%, and less than the 2/1 shot in a 120% book.

But a 2/1 shot that is a true 2/1 shot wins 1 race in 3, whatever the overround.
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arbboy
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2017, 06:07:20 PM »

If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance. 

Obviously, we all agree with that.

If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning.

The other way around surely?



No the 2/1 price in a 110% book will be closer to be a 2/1 shot at 100% (probably a 9/4 poke) whereas in the 140% book the 100% price of a 2/1 will probably be a 3/1 shot and less likely to win (25% compared to 30%)
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The Camel
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2017, 06:16:42 PM »

Yes. I am going mad.

Age is catching up with me.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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