Stu Rutter WSOP Package, Wednesday 28th May 2025, selling at 1.05

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1.1k 2 to 7 NL Landmark satellite

15k to start, landmark is 150k.

In at 200-300(500), 2 hours of late reg to go

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

14k (15kss)

Wow they seem good. Lots of drawing 2, lots of calling and patting

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1.1k 2-7 sat

18.2k

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1.1k 2-7 sat

3bet a pat 96432 BUT vs cO and have to pay off 80% pot (5k into 6.2k) when he bets as I beat some of his value range.

Down to 9.2k

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

OUT

Re-entering

Push 11 bigs with 8632 CO, SB calls and draws one. Has 8742

Makes 98742

And we make J8632

Re-enter

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

OUT

Re-entering

Push 11 bigs with 8632 CO, SB calls and draws one. Has 8742

Makes 98742

And we make J8632

Re-enter

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

Win 2 nice ones, 25.2k at end of reg break

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

28k

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

Raise 9872x CO, BB calls

BB 2, me 1

I whiff to 99872

He leads 3k into 5.5k

Always suspicious. Think about clicking to 6k. Nines are the wrong blockers though. Just about fold

26k

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1.1k

27k

55 of 93 left.

Dont know what happens with the extra chips when people get suprlus/extra prizes at the end. Hopefully we find out

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1.1k sat

I raise 8763 x

We go 1 vs 1 vs 2 vs 2

I make the beautiful 87653

Bet 11k into 13k

1 massive tanks, but no good

But, up to 37k

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1.1k sat

40k

No landmarks claimed yet

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1.1k 2 to 7 sat

OUT

Ah it's such a close decision. With the added pain that, had I made it the other way round, it would have reversed the result. Thats of course results orientated, so should be irrelevant.

The pot

I have 42k at 1k-2k (3k), and J9532, in SB. Button makes it 4.5k. I've got a standard move in and draw one-42k to win 10.5k

I move in. BB moves in over the top. I decide to draw 1, he's 1 to 8752

I pair the 5. 95532
He makes 87652

The decision

It's all whether I pat against the BB. Break it down:

If he's pat

(Let's give him a pat Ten, as it's so likely to be, and it's about his average pat)

If I pat, I surrender all equity and go from 33% to 0%. 33% loss.

If he's drawing...

Patting gains me a small equity shift. I would be 42% in the 1 vs 1. I become 50% vs his draw to 24 cards. So, a 8% equity shift.

Either a 33% equity loss, or 8% equity gain. I need to be 80% sure that he's drawing to make it right that I pat

However

1) As he moves in, he says "this is going to be fun." He was a nice, relaxed guy, trying to gamble to win the seat. It really made it sound that he thought it was a 1 vs 1- i.e. that he was drawing. I maybe wish that I had really picked up on this in the moment, but maybe then it wouldn't have broken the 80% certainty threshold required.

2) Is there a chance that he breaks better if I pat? It would have to be a Jack. J8xxx or J7xxx. If he did, it would turn a 43% spot for me (drawing to 20 outs vs his J8xxx) into a 50% spot (him drawing to 24 outs)

Ah, I think my decision is oK.


I guess  I could just have won the flip

(His play is bad, obviously. By moving in, he's got the classic flip or reasonably far behind spot)

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Bookkeeping

Overall: In for $50,200, cashed for $26,607

We have played

$10k o8
$10k DC
$10k Stud

$1.5ks in

O8
Dealers choice
Mixed Omaha
PLO8 (2)
Badugi (2)
Big O (3)
Stud
Double board bomb pot

(12, for $18k total)

1.1k Landmarks

2 to 7 (2)

($2.2k total)

So, $50,200 total

We have cashed for

10k O8- $20,280
1.5k O8- $3,305
1.5k PLO8- $3,022

A total of $26,607


We have $20k in missed bullets currently (we require $29,100 in  missed bullets)

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$10k Deuce to seven

In. Definitely worth getting here at the start. Good table. Bizarrely, for a game that is played only twice a year, have some history/info

Scott Bolhman- good in everything, obviously

Frank Kassela- random. Did knock me out the 1.5k 2 to 7 FT a few years ago, but everything is random


Darren Elias- played a bizarre one against him a few years ago where he massively underplayed a pat 9

Seat #7- Some rich guy who is taking about his 78k watch, and that he'll just drive back to LA if he busts

60k to start, blinds 200/300(500)