A difficult turn decision

[Alex Scott]

$5/$10 No Limit Hold'em from last night, nine handed. I have $1010 in chips, and probably have a fairly tight image.

UTG folds and CallingMachine1 ($1566.70 in chips) raises to $30 from second position. I don't know a lot about him except that he overplays his big pairs. He has $1567 in chips because he tried to lose them all earlier with pocket kings, but rivered a full house to beat his opponent's obvious flush.

Its folded to DJ820 ($449 in chips) in middle position who calls (not much info on this player). I call from the button with , and the big blind ($1317 in chips) also calls.

As far as I'm concerned, this is about the perfect situation for J-10 suited. I'm in a multiway pot with the best possible position, and there's at least one player in the pot who I know overplays good starting hands and so is likely to pay me off. My implied odds are massive.

There's $125 in the pot and we see the flop which is  - -

The big blind checks, CallingMachine1 bets $75, DJ820 calls, and I raise to $325. Its a small raise relative to the pot, but it represents a decent proportion of DJ820's stack. What I'm hoping will happen is that CallingMachine1 will fold and I'll end up all-in against the short stack, although I'm prepared for other eventualities.

Actually, CallingMachine1 calls my raise after the blind folds, and then DJ820 moves all-in for $94 more. I call and so does CallingMachine1.
 
There's $1382 in the main pot and the turn comes for a board of

CallingMachine1 sets me in for $561. I'm getting about 3.5 to 1 on the call.

Should I call or fold?

[SupaMonkey]

This may sound daft but if he's as bad as you say then i have him on k-q and i would call here.

[Wardonkey]

gotta call...

[clayftknight]

If the money is an issue you are playing too high, assuming the money isn't an issue you call every time.

If you were playing 1/2 and the all in was $50 you'd call right?

[GlasgowBandit]

I think its an automatic call as well.

I think he may have a K with a rag and he think he has the short stack beat with HP.

[AndrewT]

What I'm hoping will happen is that CallingMachine1 will fold and I'll end up all-in against the short stack, although I'm prepared for other eventualities.

It seems to me that you were not in anyway prepared for other eventualities. The obvious 'other eventuality' to CallingMachine1 folding is him not folding - which makes the pot $850 even if he only flat calls and the shortstack folds, which is more than you've got left in your stack.

In the situation described, with the short-stack all-in, the pot odds and your impression of the player means you must call. You only have to beat CallingMachine half the time to get a freeroll against the main pot with the shortstack. Even if you were to assume that CallingMachine has either AA or KK, then the K on board means it's more likely he has AA (which you're beating). Even if you lose against CallingMachine, the shortstack's range of hands include loads which you're beating (any straight or flush draw perfectly fits his betting pattern and no Q, 9 or diamond on the turn is good for you).

Even if you were only up against CallingMachine, on the flop you're beating an overpair (your most likely holding for him). Given he has called the flop, and considering the pot size and the size of your stacks - what turn card does he not push all-in with here? I'd say only a Jack or a diamond slows him down. 

[Alex Scott]

It seems to me that you were not in anyway prepared for other eventualities. The obvious 'other eventuality' to CallingMachine1 folding is him not folding - which makes the pot $850 even if he only flat calls and the shortstack folds, which is more than you've got left in your stack.

That's a bit harsh. I was prepared (although I was a little surprised by his actual action), I just didn't want to discuss every single situation here because I thought the post was long enough as it is, plus I didn't want to give away anything about my actual action or what my opponents actually held.

Any more comments before I post what actually happened?

[Nem]

Go on then, what happened?

[Alex Scott]

Okay.

I take one look at the size of the pot and call instantly.

We turn the cards over...

CallingMachine1 has the A-Q of diamonds and has the nut straight with the nut flush draw. Oh dear - very bad! Well done if you thought this was one of his possible holdings. I wasn't convinced that he'd call so much money with a draw... usually people either raise or fold with these kinds of hands. However with a third player in the pot, calling is definitely better than raising because you don't want to eliminate that player. He's living up to his name, anyway.

DJ820 had the 9-8 of a diamonds for an open-ended straight flush draw (yikes!). The river is the seven of diamonds, giving him a straight flush!

So, I go broke, CallingMachine1 loses a third of his stack (because he wins the side pot against me), and DJ820 triples up.

Clearly, calling the turn given what my opponents held was a huge mistake. I put in about half my stack as a slight favourite, and the rest as a huge underdog. I think the key is really that CallingMachine is betting into an empty side pot, so he's definitely not bluffing. Of all the hands he would play this way (and I believe that does include pocket aces), he might even be statistically more likely to have a hand that I can't beat than one I can.

I think the right play is to fold the turn despite the great pot odds, and I'm disappointed that I rushed the decision and came to the wrong conclusion. However, I find it really reassuring that nearly every person on every forum I've posted this on would call, and I've seen some very convincing reasons why I should in fact call. I'm trying not to be too results-oriented, but I think there is some key information in this hand that I just didn't make use of, and which suggests folding.

Cheers for your analysis guys.

[AndrewT]

As it turned out, you were up against huge hands, which, in retrospect, may have clouded your judgement as to whether you should have called. As it happened...

I take one look at the size of the pot and call instantly.

...which was entirely the correct decision, for all the reasons listed in the above posts. There was no 'key information in this hand that I just didn't make use of, and which suggests folding'. They lucked out with huge hands. With what you tell us about CallingMachine, you lead us to call.

If this happens 100 times against these players, you show a long term profit by calling.

I apologize if I seemed a little harsh (especially given your other thread) but, to me, given the stacks involved, once I make that flop raise, I do it knowing that I'm not going anywhere with this hand. I need an absolutely huge reason to lay this down later on - one which I'm not given.

[tikay]

It was a definite CALL. The fact you lost the hand is irrelevant. The call was, imo, the correct play.

You can call all-in pre-flop with AA & lose, but it's still the correct play.

[Nem]

It's good to see you on the hand analysis thread, Tikay.

[Alex Scott]

It was a definite CALL. The fact you lost the hand is irrelevant. The call was, imo, the correct play.

You can call all-in pre-flop with AA & lose, but it's still the correct play.

Yeah, maybe I'm being too results oriented. But I'm very critical of myself, especially when I lose a hand, so I like to look for ways to avoid mistakes like calling here. However I think in this case its a mistake that is extremely difficult to avoid for all the reasons people have said.

[jezza777]

"Yeah, maybe I'm being too results oriented. But I'm very critical of myself, especially when I lose a hand"

Hi Alex,

You should be equally critical of yourself no matter where the pot is pushed at the end of a hand . You did NOT make a mistake by calling in that spot. A call here shows a +ev result so even tho you lost this one it is still a winning play. You can play a hand perfectly and still lose it , as long as you are the person that is playing the hand correctly you win.

[smithy69]

I wouldnt even be in the pot. you have put nowt in the pot preflop (not in the blinds) with a basically pretty, but very poor hand. I know people will talk about implied odds but if everytime I called because of implied odds I would be skint. Did the other 3 people call because of implied odds.

for me this is a fold preflop, but thats just me