Blind on Blind: Analysis from both perspectives please

[TightEnd]

9 left in small MTT

Only top 4 get paid


SB has c12000 chips

BB has c14000 chips

Blinds are 300-600

all fold to

SB who picks up 

raises to 1500

BB reraises to 4500 with 

SB thinks BB has him down as weak tight/will pass most hands to a reraise, SB spots a bluff tell, and pushes all in for a further 7000 ish

BB thinks, and calls for 7000 of his remaining 9000 chips into a c17000 pot getting therefore 5-2 give or take, declaring " think I've got live cards"


Doesn't matter what happens from here


Hand analysis from both perspectives please

[TightEnd]

BB is decent player, prone to aggression. Mathematical player. Pot odds are crucial.

There is ego at stake between the two players

SB is tighter, bit easier to read but BB knows he can lay down hands

[scottm]

Talking to yourself Tighty

[totalise]

SB played it fine, not so sure about BB...  Q8c has equity of about 31% against AT++ and 99 ++, which is a pretty accurate 3-bet a/i range in sb vs bb scenario, and he needs 28.5% (5/2) so its a loose call assuming the above range is accurate (i think its quite close, although might be even tigher).. but seems ok

Also factor in the pleasure he gets if he busts the SB, this gives him additional utility not governed by EV, so it might be worth calling even if hes a massive dog if the pleasure he gets from busting SB is immense.

If I had to vote.. SB would get my vote as playing it correctly, and big blind playing it worse.. but still ok, not that I would play either hand the same, just that for the sake of devils advocate both plays were looked at.


EDITED coz I messed up somewhere hah

[TightEnd]

thank you for that fantastic response


I too think AT and 99 up is a fair range for all in from SB in response to reraise in BB in this type of scenario


To what extent should the BB be factoring in his "tournament life" into what is a pot odds calculation one can use to justify a (close) call? ie he assumes he has correct pot odds and live cards against two high cards (correct read) but if he doesn't outdraw he has 2000 chips left or 3-4xbb only.

Would you theoretically still be taking your chances?


If you pass you have 9000 or 15xbb left.

[TightEnd]

The BB would also counter that the size of his re-raise was designed to show the SB that he was pot committed and any move all in would give the BB the correct odds to call...ie 2-1 plus

[totalise]

I dont really know how important the fact that its his "tournament life" at risk is to be honest.. the closer you get to the money, the less risk you should take because the chip values aren't going to be strictly linear.. so a move that is ChipEV + might be $ev negative.. (like bubble situations in sngs where two chip leaders have AK vs 77.. both lose EV even tho both are chipEV pos) but when u are 9 left with 4 getting paid, you still have to accumulate chips to win, so I guess its still + on both chip and $ ev (although ICM will soon settle that if its not the case)


The problem with worrying about his "tournament life" is that with the blinds at 300/600.. there isn't a whole lot of time left in which to get into +EV situations, so you cant really fold one now in the expectation of getting one later, because the better spot might never arrive...


Theres also tertiary benefits of having a big stack as the tourney approaches the bubble, chips are going to be easy to come by (as long as you know how to gain those chips) so i think there is that added factor (although books dont really address this too much as they assume people play optimally regardless of the stack size)

In general, people are unduly afraid of getting knocked out of tournies, or getting a short-stack... and whilst this isn't exactly the situation I am referring to, it is an endemic problem that has people refusing to take correct gambles for fear of losing..and subsequently how people get such big stacks.. because others are scared of trying to get one as well. I guess it all boils down to the fact that I like to have a chance in every tourney I play, not just the ones where I get AA 10 times, so my play is governed by EV (and its why I get called a bad player so often I guess!)

This is gonna be real jumbled coz I am playing a gazillion tables as well, so if there is something glaringly wrong.. please point it out

[KeithyB]

Interesting one, I'll have a stab although this is probably an area of my game where I need to improve.

SB initial raise of 1500 -  looks ok although I'd probably go for a 2400 raise and hope to take it down there.

BB reraise to 4500 -  really don't like this at all. 1/3 of my stack, nearly 8xBB with  ?

SB move to all in - Not opposed to this move but I think I would probably flat call here to see a flop. Close decision though but not wanting to risk my tournament with  would be deciding factor for me here.

BB call of all-in -  Having got to this stage he has to call really in hope of having two live cards.  Can't see how he can be happy though!!


So all in all SB plays it much better than BB I'd say.

However my overall opinion would be to question why these players having got down to last 9 players in a MTT and both being confortable with 20xBB are ending up gambling their tournament lives on this hand? Whoever loses is either out or crippled. Surely there is still room for play at this stage ?

I accept that you have to take risks at some stage ( and inevitably have to win some coin flips ) to get in top 4 but I wouldn't be doing it just yet.

Be interested if people think that my views are too cautious here. Advice welcomed!   

[KeithyB]

Whoops...whilst my post was being composed  (slow typer! & thinker! ) the three previous posts were being added which kind of answered my question!   Thanks both!

[KeithyB]

In general, people are unduly afraid of getting knocked out of tournies, or getting a short-stack... and whilst this isn't exactly the situation I am referring to, it is an endemic problem that has people refusing to take correct gambles for fear of losing..and subsequently how people get such big stacks.. because others are scared of trying to get one as well. I guess it all boils down to the fact that I like to have a chance in every tourney I play, not just the ones where I get AA 10 times, so my play is governed by EV (and its why I get called a bad player so often I guess!)

       I do see myself being clearly described in that paragraph!   

In my defence though I always seem to end being more successful when I don't take these gambles which I guess has probably cramped my style too much.   

[ACE2M]

If the BB will not pass to an all in by the SB then why is his re steal not an all in?
I love totalise's linear ev +/- stuff as i never really consider it when playing although i think i arrive at the same conslusions mostly through other considerations.

I don't like the BB's play, i flat call and play the flop and streets especially if my read is that the sb is weak/tight as it is easier to get weak tight players to fold a middle ace if they haven't connected with the board.

I would probably call if there are ego's at stake as i don't want to get shortstacked and get bullied by the sb from then on.

[SupaMonkey]

I guess i'm one of those tight tournament players that totalise talks about but it works for me (in fact i strongly agree with the concept of folding even slightly +ev situations so you can shove your stack in with a lot of FE in other situations). In the BB's position i would never have called the all in. I understand the pot odds situation but i think the consequence of busting out far outweighs that (and the BB knows he's behind).

I have to agree with ace2m, a) i would want to get my stack in first or b) i am getting 7-3 on the pot and i know the guy is weak. I would call here and reraise his flop bet unless an ace comes. if no ace comes i wait until next time and then get my chips back.

I think the SB doesn't raise enough for someone who is out of position. He is leaving himself open to a call from a large range of hands and his hand isn't strong enough for that. The BB has reverse implied odds against him.