Hand #2 from live $300 Freezeout

[Suited_Jock]

Blinds went up to 600-1200 and its the first hand back from the break.

I am on the button with  with 7000 chips and its folded to me..

A bit of history I have played fairly tight Aggressive poker and despite losing half my stack to a two outer I feel I have kept quite upbeat and played my A game.

I pushed both my SB and BB previous to this with the SB limping the first hand and took them down uncontested (didn't show obviously).

SB in this hand has roughly 15k , BB perhaps 11k...

I'm pretty certain its another shove however I am wondering how much the SB and BB have to lower their calling standards given their stack sizes.. and my now desperate shortie image What hands should they call with?

[BigTomatoes]

 i think they can only call with a real hand

 high Ace - AK , AQ, AJ, A 10 possibly ( KQ, KJs )

 or any pair

 what did you do ?

[Ironside]

bascially in the sb and BB i would only call with a pair and up or any ace bigger than a 9

[totalise]

Jock,

if you make the following assumptions, you can pretty much play this hand face up and its still showing a profit:

lets say they only ever call with a hand that beats yours: Any Ace, any pair, any King, QK/KJ and QJ for the chop:

theres 1225 combo's they might have, and there are 436

A2----A10/AK: 16 combo's each (160)
AJ/AQ: 12 combos each (24)
22----1010/AA/KK: 6 combo's each (66)
JJ/QQ: 3 combo's each (6)
K2--K10: 16 combos each (144)
KJ/KQ: 12 combos each (24)
QJ; 9 combo's (9)


soooooo...436/1225 = 0.3559

the odds of neither calling are (1-0.3559) ^ 2 which is 0.4148

0.4148 * 1800 is 746 chips

the rest of the time you get called: Your equity against the above hands is 40.4%

equity (%)     win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   40.4082 %     39.05%    01.36%      { QJo }
Hand  2:   59.5918 %     58.24%    01.36%      { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, QJs, A2o+, K2o+, QJo }


so clearly you get back 40.4% of the pot which assuming ONE caller will be 14,900 (thats ur 7000, plus either of the blinds calling at a 50/50 ratio)so..

your equity the times you get called is:

(0.4040*14,900)-7000  = -980.40 chips

THEREFORE!


-980.4 * 0.5852 = - 573.73 chips

so overall, your profit is 746 - 573.73 = 172 chips... so even if they saw your hand and only called when they had you beat, your play is profitable. It is unexpliotable, if they called with all hands that had the correct odds, then you would be getting called as a favorite, so that would not be a bad thing.

Obviously the above isn't going to be perfectly applicable, as they ARE folding many many hands that are ahead of you, like the rag Kings and probably the rag aces... the above was just a demonstration that even if you played your hand FACE UP, moving in is practically unexploitable (in a theoretical sense)


**************************************************************************************


As for what they should call you with, thats going to be a function of your previous styles.. they are getting 5800: 8800 from the BB so they are getting almost 6/4.. so they only need something like 40% equity.. so if they figure you are moving in with any ace... suited paint and any pairs, they should be calling quite liberally with most of the same range. The beauty about poker is that most people wont be calling with that range,  which makes stealing blinds so profitable. Obviously if they figure you for playing tighter, their calling range wont be so loose. It depends.. although given what you have said, I'd call from the BB with prolly any Ace/pair and a few Kings (maybe a little bit tighter, but not by much)

[Sunday8pm]

Blinds went up to 600-1200 and its the first hand back from the break.

I am on the button with  with 7000 chips and its folded to me..

A bit of history I have played fairly tight Aggressive poker and despite losing half my stack to a two outer I feel I have kept quite upbeat and played my A game.

I pushed both my SB and BB previous to this with the SB limping the first hand and took them down uncontested (didn't show obviously).

SB in this hand has roughly 15k , BB perhaps 11k...

I'm pretty certain its another shove however I am wondering how much the SB and BB have to lower their calling standards given their stack sizes.. and my now desperate shortie image What hands should they call with?

id be considering calling here with any pair or anything bigger than K2. Id also be thinking about calling with QJ, QT etc purely on the basis that i would see you as a stealer and you do not necessarily have to have any hand that beats K2 here...

if you have a big hand, your not going to push for 7k (well you might).

What i have said is based purely on the information given mate, i'm not a total fish!

[BigTomatoes]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

[jezza777]

I would need a decent hand to call here although I think many players (including myself) play far too conservativley in this situation. I could never see myself calling with a rag king although it would be ahead in this instance. I recently read Eric Lindgrens book  Making the Final Table and he would advocate massively lowering your standards as Sunday suggests. 

[Sunday8pm]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

quite possibly,

K4 last time i checked is a better starting hand than QJ!

[Suited_Jock]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

quite possibly,

K4 last time i checked is a better starting hand than QJ!

Plus its soooooooooooooooooooooted.

Then again its for about half your stack with high blinds

[Sunday8pm]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

quite possibly,

K4 last time i checked is a better starting hand than QJ!

Plus its soooooooooooooooooooooted.

Then again its for about half your stack with high blinds

with blinds 6/12 you have 5,800 left behind. Your risking your tournament life just as much if you fold, than you are if you call.

Depending on the structure and a few other factors id also consider calling with low connectors, 78, T9 etc.

You simply have to take a gamble at this stage. unless your so golden that you know will get a big hand soon then you have to throw your chips in and leave it up to the poker gods

[Bongo]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

quite possibly,

K4 last time i checked is a better starting hand than QJ!

Exactly, I wouldn't be happy with the situation but sometimes you have to call.

[Suited_Jock]

 so you would risk your tournament here with    ?

quite possibly,

K4 last time i checked is a better starting hand than QJ!

Plus its soooooooooooooooooooooted.

Then again its for about half your stack with high blinds

with blinds 6/12 you have 5,800 left behind. Your risking your tournament life just as much if you fold, than you are if you call.

Depending on the structure and a few other factors id also consider calling with low connectors, 78, T9 etc.

You simply have to take a gamble at this stage. unless your so golden that you know will get a big hand soon then you have to throw your chips in and leave it up to the poker gods

I think you misread the hand... the button me has 7,000 chips.

The SB has 15k chips

[Highstack]

Why push?

Why not commit yourself and show that you are committed without actually doing so?

You stated that you have just pushed as a shortie in two ep spots and not showed. Sooner or later someone will look you up and you don't want it here. A raise to about 4,500 and only holding 2,500 back says I am all in but I want action and would be far more likely to get through. You are likely not to get raised too as you look committed, so if you are called and it if it doesn't flop an ace they may check to you, or alternatively if you miss, you might be able to avoid elimination.

In response to your direct question, with their stacks not at great heights in relation to the blinds and having one of the few chances to take on a shorter stack, I would be calling you if I thought that you were weak with a whole range of holdings and trying to get lucky, knowing that I am still in if I miss.