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Doobs
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« Reply #3090 on: June 23, 2016, 01:24:07 PM » |
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No point voting now. All over.
What price was a hung parliament at noon on general election day? Just saying. But the exit poll got the result spot on and that's what's driving the moves today - secret exit poll data. You don't think people who were backing hung parliament at long odds on were betting blind do you? Miliband thought Labour were going to be largest party based on the data he was receiving on polling day. The exit polls vastly underestimated the tory win. People lie to pollsters. I think you are getting confused with the pre election day polls. I am pretty sure the bbc exit poll on the day of the last election was pretty much spot on. I think there is an obvious problem with party's sending out their own staff to get polling data. As poker broker told us many times before the scottish referendum, he and his buddies were getitng told on the street that there was going to be a masisve majority to leave the UK. IIRC the BBC poll at 10pm on election night called a hung parliament with Conservatives being a couple of seats short of an outright majority. They far underextimated the collapse of the Labour Party in Scotland and the LibDems across the country. meh, the difference between 2 seats short of a hung parliamant and 20 or so seats the other way is going to be a fraction of 1%. You'd be pretty picky to say that wasn't pretty accurate. Wish I could be that accurate in my day job statsistics anyway. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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arbboy
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« Reply #3091 on: June 23, 2016, 01:47:58 PM » |
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55-60% is a big fav now on bf for the remain vote %. Getting a bit worried about it going over the 60% band and my money buying exercise will go south backing the 45-60% range at 2/7. Not too far please. Someone start voting leave to save me.
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« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:00:14 PM by arbboy »
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arbboy
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« Reply #3092 on: June 23, 2016, 02:01:59 PM » |
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Serious floods in the SE surely going to effect the vote though? Most people in these places won't be caring too much about voting when they are 4 feet under water at home. Places like Romford and East London must be big 'leave' areas. This must be a biggish factor in the price move as well as the exit polls right?
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« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:05:02 PM by arbboy »
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Doobs
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« Reply #3093 on: June 23, 2016, 02:18:54 PM » |
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Serious floods in the SE surely going to effect the vote though? Most people in these places won't be caring too much about voting when they are 4 feet under water at home. Places like Romford and East London must be big 'leave' areas. This must be a biggish factor in the price move as well as the exit polls right?
Whilst I am sure there will be some parts that are provided leaving, I'd expect a strong remain vote in total there. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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ripple11
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« Reply #3094 on: June 23, 2016, 02:48:51 PM » |
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They were saying on the radio last night there are no official exit polls being done by any of the media, due to the fact you need historical data to make the predictions work!
(ie with general election the votes of the time before)
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RickBFA
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« Reply #3095 on: June 23, 2016, 02:54:14 PM » |
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55-60% is a big fav now on bf for the remain vote %. Getting a bit worried about it going over the 60% band and my money buying exercise will go south backing the 45-60% range at 2/7. Not too far please. Someone start voting leave to save me.
60-65% remain vote is 7/1 with Sadblokes. Would give you some cover if you could get on? Just thinking out loud. |
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The Camel
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« Reply #3096 on: June 23, 2016, 03:47:06 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #3097 on: June 23, 2016, 03:50:58 PM » |
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The narrative is nobody knows what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen
Same narrative across the whole campaign from both sides imo
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
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Doobs
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« Reply #3098 on: June 23, 2016, 03:53:14 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
I can cash out and get a nice bottle of sauvignin blanc already? Maybe I am betraying my roots and should be getting a bottle of buckfast? |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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AndrewT
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« Reply #3099 on: June 23, 2016, 03:54:21 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
FTSE has given up it's gains, the pound back under $1.48. Now the decline has stopped and Leave is back out to 7.4 after being 5.3 5 minutes ago. |
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The Camel
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« Reply #3100 on: June 23, 2016, 03:54:32 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
I can cash out and get a nice bottle of sauvignin blanc already? Maybe I am betraying my roots and should be getting a bottle of buckfast? Meths IMO. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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Doobs
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« Reply #3101 on: June 23, 2016, 03:58:28 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
I can cash out and get a nice bottle of sauvignin blanc already? Maybe I am betraying my roots and should be getting a bottle of buckfast? Meths IMO. can't even buy meths, am -£2.26 all of a sudden. My dreams of a bottle of buckfast are in tatters. edit. confirmed nobody has a scooby |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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arbboy
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« Reply #3102 on: June 23, 2016, 04:04:42 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
Nig got a cruise ship out in Romford high st to get all the leave voters through the floods. |
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ripple11
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« Reply #3103 on: June 23, 2016, 04:31:22 PM » |
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Price moving the other way now.
Touched 10/1 Leave, currently 9/2.
How do we fit a narative to that?
Nig got a cruise ship out in Romford high st to get all the leave voters through the floods.  #Noah |
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Ironside
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« Reply #3104 on: June 23, 2016, 11:01:32 PM » |
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Nigel Farage already conceded defeat
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
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