Swimming Against the Tide

[Scottish Dave]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

[The Camel]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

Because the whole world is obviously thinking Blackburn is a "banker" and Newcastle have drifted to an incredible price.

The whole point of this exercise is to identify prices which drift becuase of a snowball effect of people thinking a team is in crisis, or completely out of form etc etc. and therefore they all lump on their opposition and we get value.

Newcastle should have walloped Hull on Weds. They had a hatful of chances. If they had won 3-0 they would be 9/4 or so on Saturday.

Blackburn are second bottom for a reason. They are shite.

Win or lose, Newcastle are incredible value.

[Scottish Dave]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

Because the whole world is obviously thinking Blackburn is a "banker" and Newcastle have drifted to an incredible price.

The whole point of this exercise is to identify prices which drift becuase of a snowball effect of people thinking a team is in crisis, or completely out of form etc etc. and therefore they all lump on their opposition and we get value.

Newcastle should have walloped Hull on Weds. They had a hatful of chances. If they had won 3-0 they would be 9/4 or so on Saturday.

Blackburn are second bottom for a reason. They are shite.

Win or lose, Newcastle are incredible value.

iIunderstand the point of this exercise, thats why im following you, however even if Newcastle did beat Hull 3-0 or so, id still have Blackburn for the win in this one, Blackburn are second bottom, due to a very poor start, however i feel this is changing, and still fancy a home win here.

I am torn between your currently profitable exercise, and what my head is telling me!

what to do, what to do?

[GlasgowBandit]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

Because the whole world is obviously thinking Blackburn is a "banker" and Newcastle have drifted to an incredible price.

The whole point of this exercise is to identify prices which drift becuase of a snowball effect of people thinking a team is in crisis, or completely out of form etc etc. and therefore they all lump on their opposition and we get value.

Newcastle should have walloped Hull on Weds. They had a hatful of chances. If they had won 3-0 they would be 9/4 or so on Saturday.

Blackburn are second bottom for a reason. They are shite.

Win or lose, Newcastle are incredible value.

iIunderstand the point of this exercise, thats why im following you, however even if Newcastle did beat Hull 3-0 or so, id still have Blackburn for the win in this one, Blackburn are second bottom, due to a very poor start, however i feel this is changing, and still fancy a home win here.

I am torn between your currently profitable exercise, and what my head is telling me!

what to do, what to do?

Back the draw.

[The Camel]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

Because the whole world is obviously thinking Blackburn is a "banker" and Newcastle have drifted to an incredible price.

The whole point of this exercise is to identify prices which drift becuase of a snowball effect of people thinking a team is in crisis, or completely out of form etc etc. and therefore they all lump on their opposition and we get value.

Newcastle should have walloped Hull on Weds. They had a hatful of chances. If they had won 3-0 they would be 9/4 or so on Saturday.

Blackburn are second bottom for a reason. They are shite.

Win or lose, Newcastle are incredible value.

iIunderstand the point of this exercise, thats why im following you, however even if Newcastle did beat Hull 3-0 or so, id still have Blackburn for the win in this one, Blackburn are second bottom, due to a very poor start, however i feel this is changing, and still fancy a home win here.

I am torn between your currently profitable exercise, and what my head is telling me!

what to do, what to do?

Honestly, go with your own feeling and back Blackburn.

I have listened to advice and opposed what I fancied before and it's both won and lost.

When what I backed lost and my original fancy won I felt so sick it wasn't made up for by the tipped selection winning next time.

I think if you follow my selections in this thread you will win money in the long term. But each individual selction is more likely to lose than win (obv).

[Scottish Dave]

Thats what i was thinking, if i back Blackburn and they lose ill only have myself to blame

....If i back Newcastle and they lose, id need to hunt you down like the dog you are! 

[TheChipPrince]

In other words, go with your own choices, while in the meantime open up a seperate account purely to follow Camel's with smallish bets... 

[Woodsey]

might put a £100 in BF to follow this for a laugh, what do you mean when you say bet x pts? Is it a % of the cash u have to bet with or something?

[AndrewT]

might put a £100 in BF to follow this for a laugh, what do you mean when you say bet x pts? Is it a % of the cash u have to bet with or something?

You set how much 1pt is to you, depending on how big you bet. It might be £1, it might be £100. But it remains the same throughout.

[TheChipPrince]

Have say 50 'points' in your roll to start to be cautious, so if you £100, and Camel says 2 points, its £4 etc

50's probs a bit too safe to be fair

[kukushkin88]

I'd think having 50 points in your bankroll is probably about right. Max bet will prob be 5 points.

One thing that interesting from this thread is that people who obviously bet alot, notably Scottish Dave clearly don't understand the concept of betting for value, it is the only way to bet profitably. I would agree that Blackburn are the more likely winners of their game vs Newcastle but Newcastle are obviously a much more attractive betting proposition. Blackburn are probably close to the worst value on the whole coupon.

[Scottish Dave]

I'd think having 50 points in your bankroll is probably about right. Max bet will prob be 5 points.

One thing that interesting from this thread is that people who obviously bet alot, notably Scottish Dave clearly don't understand the concept of betting for value, it is the only way to bet profitably. I would agree that Blackburn are the more likely winners of their game vs Newcastle but Newcastle are obviously a much more attractive betting proposition. Blackburn are probably close to the worst value on the whole coupon.

what if yo think blackburn have a 90+% chance of winning this game? are they still bad value?

[Ironside]

I'd think having 50 points in your bankroll is probably about right. Max bet will prob be 5 points.

One thing that interesting from this thread is that people who obviously bet alot, notably Scottish Dave clearly don't understand the concept of betting for value, it is the only way to bet profitably. I would agree that Blackburn are the more likely winners of their game vs Newcastle but Newcastle are obviously a much more attractive betting proposition. Blackburn are probably close to the worst value on the whole coupon.

what if yo think blackburn have a 90+% chance of winning this game? are they still bad value?

no because you are getting better the 1-10 for them to win

if  you thought blackburn was 90% to win and you was betting 1.15 then you would bet on them for value

[kukushkin88]

If you think their chance is >90% then they obviously represent value to you. You can't actually think their chance is anything like that good though. As I say I think a Blackburn win is the most likely of the three results, clearly not a bet though.

[Ironside]

or a better defination of value is roulette wheel i offer you even money on black and 2-1 on red you would bet on red as you are getting better value even though the odds on the result are the same