Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

The Lindbergh Affair.

" OK Tikay I will help you out. I'll go and pick Ploppy up. What then? "

Tikay's eyes danced with excitement. " I have it all figured out. You keep Ploppy here but keep her out of sight as much as possible. The entire Gypsy community will be on the look out for her. In the meantime I will draw up a ransom demand. We have to ask for an amount that he will struggle to raise, I thought £25K. "

"  No way will he ever pay that " said Arbboy.

" Oh he wont want  to, but you have never met Mrs Red. She will insist he does whatever is necessary to get Ploppy back. And she is one fearsome women. A cross between Anne Robinson and Joey Barton. Once they get the ransom note he will call me, no doubt in bits. After some thought I will tell him to use the power of Blonde. Get them all on the look out for her. I will start a sort of staking thread to raise the money. Donations, sponsored events, fun runs etc. Red Dog is so popular that the whole community will rise and the place will be buzzing again. "

2 hours later Arbboy returned. Ploppy hopped out of the car and jogged up the path towards Tikay and stared at him in recognition. Giving Tikay a look that said my Dad's going to chop your knackers off for this.

" OK Tikay I'll go and get the bolt cutters. "

" What do you want them for "

" To chop a paw off, let them know we are serious. Like they do in the films "

" No. No. No.  There will be no chopping done at all. When the money is raised I will take her back completely unharmed "

" So you don't want me to do her in ? You said she is really intelligent. What if she says something ? "

" Dogs can't talk Arbboy "

" You may think that Tikay but I saw one once, on the Esther Rantzen show I think it was, and it clearly said " sausages " and if it can say that it could probably manage to say Arbboy just as easily, or even Tikay "

Tikay gave Arbboy a look of total disbelief and muttered " I think it is far more likely that she would say " Dickhead "

[BigAdz]

As I said, I'm v tired(getting more so now...), and yes perhaps the phrase "treatment of" was out of kilter, but the fact remains the guy produced a lot more facts to back up his suggestion than many do(inc me, on occasion).


For balance the most successful punter I know places all his racing bets when Betfair has all horses priced at 1-20 in a race.

How does that fit in the value bets equation? Or should he wait until betfair is liquid to judge the case.

Its not an apples with apples arguement.

Off to bed, u will be glad to hear

[tikay]

The Lindbergh Affair.

" OK Tikay I will help you out. I'll go and pick Ploppy up. What then? "

Tikay's eyes danced with excitement. " I have it all figured out. You keep Ploppy here but keep her out of sight as much as possible. The entire Gypsy community will be on the look out for her. In the meantime I will draw up a ransom demand. We have to ask for an amount that he will struggle to raise, I thought £25K. "

"  No way will he ever pay that " said Arbboy.

" Oh he wont want  to, but you have never met Mrs Red. She will insist he does whatever is necessary to get Ploppy back. And she is one fearsome women. A cross between Anne Robinson and Joey Barton. Once they get the ransom note he will call me, no doubt in bits. After some thought I will tell him to use the power of Blonde. Get them all on the look out for her. I will start a sort of staking thread to raise the money. Donations, sponsored events, fun runs etc. Red Dog is so popular that the whole community will rise and the place will be buzzing again. "

2 hours later Arbboy returned. Ploppy hopped out of the car and jogged up the path towards Tikay and stared at him in recognition. Giving Tikay a look that said my Dad's going to chop your knackers off for this.

" OK Tikay I'll go and get the bolt cutters. "

" What do you want them for "

" To chop a paw off, let them know we are serious. Like they do in the films "

" No. No. No.  There will be no chopping done at all. When the money is raised I will take her back completely unharmed "

" So you don't want me to do her in ? You said she is really intelligent. What if she says something ? "

" Dogs can't talk Arbboy "

" You may think that Tikay but I saw one once, on the Esther Rantzen show I think it was, and it clearly said " sausages " and if it can say that it could probably manage to say Arbboy just as easily, or even Tikay "

Tikay gave Arbboy a look of total disbelief and muttered " I think it is far more likely that she would say " Dickhead "

This is wayyyyy too good hector.

Honestly, you have some vivid imagination, there.

Might just shop you, & tell Tom.

Episode 4 awaited.

[superwomble]

-£10 Gateshead, 2-0 losers at Barnet who were promoted back into the football league

Click to see full-size image.

Bit of a back-handed compliment by the Non-League Paper there!

[DungBeetle]

Watford

We are starting to become big fans of Watford here, (thinking though our pockets?), but I saw a piece in the paper today which struck me as an odd stat.

Watford have had FOUR Managers this season. 

Can't be too many Clubs that have been promoted to the EPL under such circumstances, can there?

Jokanovic was favourite to be next manager to go after he lost 4 in a row as well!
It's a European set up so the players are provided by the scouting network so managerial chopping and changing has less impact in terms of continuity.  Felt like Deeney was running the team in the bizarre month where Garcia fell ill and assistants took over.  Jokanovic has made his mark now though and seems to have the full respect of the players.

[Tonji]

Enjoying the mini comedy/thriller Hector 

[arbboy]

Enjoying the mini comedy/thriller Hector 

This

No idea where it is going but it seems a fun read!!!!

[arbboy]

la liga tonight, real madrid away at celta vigo are 3/4 with chandler. i'm aware they are missing bale, modric and benzema but they were when beating athleti on wednesday so think the price is huge. might be missing something e.g ronnys out injured etc but from checking around i can't find anything. real are in good form and need the win to keep their la liga challenge alive. celta are comfy in mid table, have been in good form against the lesser sides and lost a tight one to barca recently. had expected a price below 1/2 if i'm honest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/celta-vigo-v-real-madrid/winner

we have a nice bet on Barca to win la liga, they won 2-0 against espanyol yesterday to go five points clear....

could do with real not winning this!

real have been drifting too, as you say....

anyway,

 Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Real Madrid (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 8/11 Stake: 31.88 Possible Return:  55.07

both teams using the liberal meaning of the word "defence" means its 3-2 real at half time ... its been a sweat so far eh, jeeeeeeeeeez

Hope you win your bet, but really was this value?

The market knows Real needs to win this, it is hardly hidden from the odds compilers and the betting public.

If anything it will be priced defensively, because the bookies know every ice cream around the world will want to bet on Real.

Norwich and Middlesborough needed to win their games yesterday desperately. How did they fare?

Although I agree with what you're saying, isn't it the same as the very first bet posted on this thread?

The market knows etc, same with loads of bets/odds on here.

The first bet posted on this thread was a suggestion for a bet on Michel Hazanavicius to win the Best Director Oscar at 5/8 when the prices first appeared.

By Oscar night he was 1/12 and duly picked up the award.

You are going to have to explain how this is the same as backing Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo 15 minutes before kick off.

It seems to be to be the same old 'would you have backed Real Madrid at home at 1/4 in the same game?' as another rec has been put up on a big name team in a tv game on the road.  Teams like Madrid always look more sexy on the road as they go off at bigger prices which seem appealing.  They do so for a reason, because they are on the road.

I have no idea if the 8/11 was value or not.  My question, as usual but very importantly, would have been would you have had the same bet on Madrid at 1/4 if they were at home in the same game with everything else equal.  If he thinks the 1/4 has the same edge in the bet then there is no problem.  The vast majority of times though punters in this situation wouldn't be as keen to steam into the 1/4 which usually shows the lack of edge in most of these types of bet.

I am not of the same opinion as many saying markets are always correct close to kick off.  They can be, and are more likely to be than at any time during the formation of any market, but they can also be wrong for various reasons.  As Camel says in this spot it would be rare that Madrid would be going off too big in a late Sunday tv game when there is little else for the wagons to smash into to get out on the weekend.

I think it is important we keep asking questions regarding bets and keep focusing on the original purpose of the fred which was making money finding the boss profitable bets over the long term.  Obviously having fun is a big part of the fred as well but it is a lot more fun when we are winning than breaking even or losing.

debating value could go on long into the night, and probably will :-) like i said, i came on here to learn, and having discussions about bets is all part of that process. some points made i've agreed with, others i haven't, but then its personal opinion and thats always going to be the case. to give the price a bit more context, barca and real both played this weekend. they are both often priced up stupidly short, so i rarely even look at their games. barca (1st, 78 points) played away to espanyol (10th, 42 points) this is a local derby so their price may be slightly enhanced as the game may be more "competitive". conspiracy theorists may say its a banker barca win as espanyol would roll over so a catalan side wins the league. either way,  i didn't punt barca but the price i can find on them to win from oddsportal was 1/4. this may not be gospel obvs, but they are normally pretty close. real (2nd, 76 points) played away to celta vigo (9th, 42 points) and were 3/4. i understand that the general public overbet these teams, and they are normally priced up accordingly, but i thought (and still feel, for my sins, haha) they were too big. the "would you back them at 1/4 at home" reasoning, they were 1/7 at home to beat celta (no, i wasn't on )

http://www.oddsportal.com/search/results/:W8mj7MDD/

Fair enough if that was the. Case. After adjusting for the three injuries 1/4 would probably still be value in the home game. It obviously assuming all other things being equal which they are not several months later.  I don't follow Spanish football greatly so I had no opinion on the price.  I just like lookingatthings the other way around as these bets always seem to involve big teams away from home rather than being at home.

[arbboy]

I've been driving all night, and really don't want to get into Monday morning fighting, but I do think your treatment of Nellburg is a little harsh.

Maybe the bet wasn't "valutastic" but its no different to a raft of saturday football bets put up every week, or when Tikay says he fancies a punt. No one has a go then.

I totally accept that probably every bet Argue has put up has value in it, but not everyone has the staking power to get involved in a bunch of 1-20 shots, and so search in other places.

I think one concept, akin to the value concept, we tend to pass over, is risk and reward, which maybe suits the mindset of ur average Fred member, a little better.


Drum roll for the inevitable sledging.........

You make it sound Like I have ten times more on a 1/20 shot than I do an even money shot when that is not the case.  I stake as a percent of bank roll based on the expected value of the bet not the price.  I never understand why people think you need a massive bankroll to bet big odds on.  If I make something 1/100 and I am getting 1/10 I have a huge edge so my stake will be relative to that edge not the price.  The bigger the Rick % wise in price the bigger the bet.  The actual price of the bet itself should never determine the size of the bet which you Are implying.  If you look at a lot of my recommendations for darts draws I state a bigger bet at 4/1 than at 7/2 which is what I am talking about here.

For every grand I put on that I am making 90 quid. I would have the same grand on a 6/5 shot that should be evens. The two bets have roughly the same expected value.  In the long term we win £90 having each of these bets so each of the two bets should have the same % of bankroll invested in them. What price they actually are really makes no difference as the bets return the same cash long term.

So many small staking punters miss out on so much ev by never backing odds on.  The biggest mistake they usually make is actually over staking as a percentage of bankroll on big prices. And under staking or even worse not betting at all on short prices where they have the same ev edge.  This is part of the reason why it is relatively easy to make money backing big odds on selectively because supply and demand distorts the market because so few punters are willing to do it.

The big advNtage of being a arber is the fact you always win the ev so arbers will know exactly what I am talking about here. You invest a grand in something but long term you know either way you are winning £90 whatever the
Price is.  The biggest mistake most punters make is getting blinded by price rather than working out the actual edge they have which is the only thing that matters if you want to win long term.

When you have a score on a 20/1 shot that should be 16/1 ( a totally realistic day to day grinders bet ) you are nicking a couple of quid in  ev every time you place the bet. You can do the same having 20 quid on a 1/10 shot that should be 1/100 but no one every does the second one because it doesn't look sexy but the long term edge which Fred is all about is the same.  I should add that it suits me that this exists because It provides me with opportunities where others are unwilling to step and allows me to get on a lot more easier in big volumes than it would be backing a 20/1 shot towin the same ev on a 16/1 shot. You Will get your accounts closed a lot quicker doing the latter than the1/10 shots believe me.

[RED-DOG]

The Lindbergh Affair.

" OK Tikay I will help you out. I'll go and pick Ploppy up. What then? "

Tikay's eyes danced with excitement. " I have it all figured out. You keep Ploppy here but keep her out of sight as much as possible. The entire Gypsy community will be on the look out for her. In the meantime I will draw up a ransom demand. We have to ask for an amount that he will struggle to raise, I thought £25K. "

"  No way will he ever pay that " said Arbboy.

" Oh he wont want  to, but you have never met Mrs Red. She will insist he does whatever is necessary to get Ploppy back. And she is one fearsome women. A cross between Anne Robinson and Joey Barton. Once they get the ransom note he will call me, no doubt in bits. After some thought I will tell him to use the power of Blonde. Get them all on the look out for her. I will start a sort of staking thread to raise the money. Donations, sponsored events, fun runs etc. Red Dog is so popular that the whole community will rise and the place will be buzzing again. "

2 hours later Arbboy returned. Ploppy hopped out of the car and jogged up the path towards Tikay and stared at him in recognition. Giving Tikay a look that said my Dad's going to chop your knackers off for this.

" OK Tikay I'll go and get the bolt cutters. "

" What do you want them for "

" To chop a paw off, let them know we are serious. Like they do in the films "

" No. No. No.  There will be no chopping done at all. When the money is raised I will take her back completely unharmed "

" So you don't want me to do her in ? You said she is really intelligent. What if she says something ? "

" Dogs can't talk Arbboy "

" You may think that Tikay but I saw one once, on the Esther Rantzen show I think it was, and it clearly said " sausages " and if it can say that it could probably manage to say Arbboy just as easily, or even Tikay "

Tikay gave Arbboy a look of total disbelief and muttered " I think it is far more likely that she would say " Dickhead "

How dare you hide great stories on this silly betting thread where no one will see them.

[Tal]

It's the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. Be veritable madness for us not to have a few bets on it, given our good knowledge base and the fact there are some lovely bookies offering prices (assuming Fred can get on via intermediaries).

For those who don't know what this is, the 32 teams are ranked in reverse order of last year's performance. The worst team statistically gets to pick first of the college players, thereby getting the best chance of improving their team. Then the second worst team gets a go and so on. As each of these bright young things is selected, they go on stage to be congratulated by the Greg Dyke/Sepp Blatter equivalent, Commissioner Roger Goodell. Formal handshake optional:



There are loads of markets already and a thousand different opinions on what happens on the night. Each team has needs, however good they were last year.

Think we found few good spots last year. Be good to replicate this time round.

Over 2.5 quarterbacks in the first round is 6/1, for example. Two are obvious, but there are more than two teams who need a QB and some will want one to act as a backup under a journeyman/mediocre QB for a season on the cheap. Cleveland might cut their losses on the disastrous Manziel and bring in a safe pair of hands in Grayson, for example.

Does someone take a punt on a quarterback late on?

Lots of talent in edge rushers, running backs and offensive linemen, but it's quarterbacks that sell shirts jerseys and some teams are daft enough to do what they know is wrong, in order to please the fans.

Just starting the discussion.

[Tal]

Recommend Fred doesn't place anything without Tighty approving or at least commenting on it, by the way.

[tikay]

It's the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. Be veritable madness for us not to have a few bets on it, given our good knowledge base and the fact there are some lovely bookies offering prices (assuming Fred can get on via intermediaries).

For those who don't know what this is, the 32 teams are ranked in reverse order of last year's performance. The worst team statistically gets to pick first of the college players, thereby getting the best chance of improving their team. Then the second worst team gets a go and so on. As each of these bright young things is selected, they go on stage to be congratulated by the Greg Dyke/Sepp Blatter equivalent, Commissioner Roger Goodell. Formal handshake optional:



There are loads of markets already and a thousand different opinions on what happens on the night. Each team has needs, however good they were last year.

Think we found few good spots last year. Be good to replicate this time round.

Over 2.5 quarterbacks in the first round is 6/1, for example. Two are obvious, but there are more than two teams who need a QB and some will want one to act as a backup under a journeyman/mediocre QB for a season on the cheap. Cleveland might cut their losses on the disastrous Manziel and bring in a safe pair of hands in Grayson, for example.

Does someone take a punt on a quarterback late on?

Lots of talent in edge rushers, running backs and offensive linemen, but it's quarterbacks that sell shirts jerseys and some teams are daft enough to do what they know is wrong, in order to please the fans.

Just starting the discussion.

Excellent - pretty sure we had 5 or 6 bets on this last year & made a bit of money, as there were a few pricing ricks.

[Doobs]

Recommend Fred doesn't place anything without Tighty approving or at least commenting on it, by the way.

Don't you think it is OK to have a few punts, so long as we know they are punts, or has your view changed since 9.25?

[arbboy]

Recommend Fred doesn't place anything without Tighty approving or at least commenting on it, by the way.

Don't you think it is OK to have a few punts, so long as we know they are punts, or has your view changed since 9.25?

very good doobs!