Kmac84
|
|
« Reply #1440 on: August 02, 2014, 12:20:59 AM » |
|
Race 1: Pandar, Extrasolar, Slip Sliding Away, Barnet Fair and Secondo. Make my list, I could probably fire in 2 or 3 more to be honest. I'm probably playing this small as want to see what the draw effect is tomorrow.
Race 2 - With Satelite coming out we're down to 16 runners, fav looks solid but plenty short enough, would take a punt with Oasis Fantasy and Second Step.
Race 3 - Amazing Maria
Race 4 - Going to leave this to after race 1 as will have a much better feel for the draw but Muthmir was very impressive last week. Boomerng Bob also looks backable e/w. Probably 5 in this. Could easily back front 10 e/w in market and it woldn't be far off being right.
Race 5 - Fav looks solid but far too short for me to bet so I'd be looking for some e/w value the 3 that stand out are Dutch Connection, Dance of Fire, and Secret Brief. Ideally we'd want one or 2 non runners to make it more favourable.
Race 6 - Fav looks solid again, definitely best horse but Sakkis could be the danger.
Race 7 - Desert Ace and Angel Flores look pretty solid e/w bets.
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
doubleup
|
|
« Reply #1441 on: August 02, 2014, 10:03:05 AM » |
|
Official lol sample size guide to todays Goodwood sprints
I have looked at the past nine runnings of the stewards cup and consolation race (18 races 454 runners) to see if there any trends that can reduce the field size
1) No wedding tackle required. All 18 races have been won by geldings 360 geldings have run with 5% winning and 17.2% being places
2) Weight. There is a trend to the higher weights. Horses carrying 9-4 or more have won 5.5% of the time and been placed 18.6% of the time
3) Class change. Horses who ran previously in a Class 2 race have won 4.7% of the time and been placed 17.9% of the time
4) Draw range. 7.3% of winners and 19.3% of placed horses have been drawn in the middle section
5) Last 3 races. Horses who have won or placed in all their last 3 races have won 9.1% and been placed 36.4%. Two good runs from the last 3 have won 7% and placed 15.5%. The form of the last race seems irrelevant.
2.05
Tatliisu has 5/5
Also like Mission Approved and Shore Step because of the very strong 3 good runs from last 3 stat
3.50
Sir Maximillian has 5/5
Also like Shropshire has run well fresh
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #1442 on: August 02, 2014, 10:09:42 AM » |
|
Blimey, things getting a bit professional in here. I may have to start a new thread for just mugs that are lucky guessers!
Nice work lads.
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
horseplayer
|
|
« Reply #1443 on: August 02, 2014, 10:33:24 AM » |
|
Official lol sample size guide to todays Goodwood sprints
I have looked at the past nine runnings of the stewards cup and consolation race (18 races 454 runners) to see if there any trends that can reduce the field size
1) No wedding tackle required. All 18 races have been won by geldings 360 geldings have run with 5% winning and 17.2% being places
2) Weight. There is a trend to the higher weights. Horses carrying 9-4 or more have won 5.5% of the time and been placed 18.6% of the time
3) Class change. Horses who ran previously in a Class 2 race have won 4.7% of the time and been placed 17.9% of the time
4) Draw range. 7.3% of winners and 19.3% of placed horses have been drawn in the middle section
5) Last 3 races. Horses who have won or placed in all their last 3 races have won 9.1% and been placed 36.4%. Two good runs from the last 3 have won 7% and placed 15.5%. The form of the last race seems irrelevant.
2.05
Tatliisu has 5/5
Also like Mission Approved and Shore Step because of the very strong 3 good runs from last 3 stat
3.50
Sir Maximillian has 5/5
Also like Shropshire has run well fresh
nice post double
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Kmac84
|
|
« Reply #1444 on: August 02, 2014, 10:43:19 AM » |
|
Blimey, things getting a bit professional in here. I may have to start a new thread for just mugs that are lucky guessers!
Nice work lads.
Yeah I'm in this camp.
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #1445 on: August 02, 2014, 10:54:38 AM » |
|
Ok. For anyone with any money left at 5.45 you may wish to have a decent ew bet on Wahaab currently 10-1. It wont be by then.
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #1446 on: August 02, 2014, 02:29:45 PM » |
|
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom!!!!!
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
horseplayer
|
|
« Reply #1447 on: August 02, 2014, 02:40:16 PM » |
|
Nice one Adz
Love the way i keep telling people Nicholls is back in form this season but have managed to not back any of his many winners
nice work
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
tikay
|
|
« Reply #1448 on: August 02, 2014, 02:41:24 PM » |
|
Ha!
Well done Adzy.
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
|
|
|
doubleup
|
|
« Reply #1449 on: August 02, 2014, 03:00:36 PM » |
|
No rule 4 on my placed ones! Though I would've ended up owing them money with ten non-runners....
|
|
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 03:02:50 PM by doubleup »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #1450 on: August 02, 2014, 05:12:28 PM » |
|
Ground has changed big time at Thirsk and maybe opens up the race a tad.
Had a small ew bet on LastchanceLucas and Lilac Lace, both around 16s.
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #1451 on: August 02, 2014, 05:45:13 PM » |
|
Ground has changed big time at Thirsk and maybe opens up the race a tad.
Had a small ew bet on LastchanceLucas and Lilac Lace, both around 16s.
Right idea. Wrong Easterby. No damage with a third.
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
Omm
|
|
« Reply #1452 on: August 03, 2014, 08:20:10 AM » |
|
Adz, Roudee is back at Chester today, running a small Class 2, wasn't disgrace behind a very impressive Tiggy Wiggy and I'm sure I done another horse out of that race that has since run and won ( can't remember it name) any 3-1, any good or short enough?
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Omm
|
|
« Reply #1453 on: August 03, 2014, 08:24:31 AM » |
|
Nice one adz backing an ed dunlop winner means you must be in form
Backed an old friend SIR MAXIMILLIAN tomorrow in the stewards at 25's
Backed him on first start for Pitt at Chester, since won cosily in Ireland and although this is another massive step up in class looks a bit disrespected for Pitt
Unlucky with this yesterday horsey, he is down to run again today at Chester, I presume he will be a non runner but at the moment he is 7-1, what's your thoughts?
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
tikay
|
|
« Reply #1454 on: August 03, 2014, 08:31:13 AM » |
|
Ommy,
I just happened upon a Post from several days back when you were unwell & hospitalised.
I know you have had health issues for a while, as have several others here, but you guys seem to cope with it well.
Hope you are on the mend now.
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
|
|
|
|