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Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 441041 times)
horseplayer
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« on: May 19, 2013, 03:28:10 PM »

This thread is for recording of my racing thoughts.

Bets are a on 5pt scale of 1pt to 5pts.

The record of bets so far is available for all to see online here :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHE4dnc4MjBYbjlJVERnZDdqd29ERUE#gid=0

Thanks to Mere Novice (vince) for all of his help with the spreadsheet

Sunday 19/05/2013

Like 3 today at Ripon.

3.40

Memory Cloth (nap) 3pts win at 4-1 general

result unplaced at 7-2

Purely a handicapping thing this one. It is very rare that a horse who finishes 7/24 in a big handicap like the spring cup at newbury is racing from 5lbs later after one start since. That start was on firm ground at newmarket which the horse patently hated. The horse is now racing from 90 which is now its lowest mark for a year despite appearing to be in good form.

4.10

Aegeus 2pts win at 9/4 general (5-2 still with spreadex fixed odds)

result unplaced at 9-4

I have this slightly shorter in my tissue. Beaten odds on at lingfield on return but can improve from that. All of the pedigree suggests that the horse should improve with racing. This is a beatable field for something progressive.


4.40

Haajes 2pts win at 4-1 (stan james and hills)

result second at 7-2

A real old veteran sprinter not the type i usually look at but seems in great form at present. Won a seller last time which was the first time it's won on fast ground aged 9 so still has ability, the penultimate run in a much better race was better though i think, this is a poor contest, he should get a lovely trip just off the speed in this. The penultimate run has already worked out well (dorback finished 3rd in a class 4 at ascot next time, 6lengths back to third has run well since, 4th just got touched off in a handicap couple of days ago.)
« Last Edit: May 27, 2013, 01:22:04 PM by horseplayer » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2013, 03:33:34 PM »

Great to see this back horsey.

Your previous thread showed over a thousand pounds profit in quite a short period, and I followed it daily.

In the modern Internet parlance, "subscribed".
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2013, 03:41:40 PM »

I'm on.
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2013, 03:42:12 PM »

Spooky timing horsey, was just thinking this morning that we needed a specialist horseracering thread.

Re: Memory Cloth, 4-1 tight enough now? Was 8-1 with Ladbrokes last night.

One of my list horses runs on Tuesday, Arc Light 4.00 Newcastle. Oi oi!
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Tal
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2013, 03:45:16 PM »

Sub to the scribed
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Horneris
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2013, 04:28:42 PM »

booo the wrong progressive one.

Clon Brulee on the bridle.
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Horneris
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2013, 04:59:45 PM »

Now Richard Whittaker gets one home on the bridle against us!
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horseplayer
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2013, 07:25:53 PM »

struggle to get a worse start tbh

memory cloth was very well backed late and just never fired

Aegaeus appeared to have a problem and was soon pulled up (almost)

haajes ran the race expected just beaten by an unexposed one


will update details every sunday evening re profit and loss
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Karabiner
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2013, 07:36:55 PM »

Really pleased to see this thread back horsey.

I hope it means that things are looking a little better on the home front.

I'll be following with interest and possibly suggesting one or two although I am mainly a jumps man when it comes to having strong opinions.

GL
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horseplayer
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2013, 07:40:32 PM »

Really pleased to see this thread back horsey.

I hope it means that things are looking a little better on the home front.

I'll be following with interest and possibly suggesting one or two although I am mainly a jumps man when it comes to having strong opinions.

GL

thanks kara much needed boost that post

thinks are settled but no better i am looking for part time work at present to tide me over

all the best any opinions appreciated
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Skippy
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2013, 07:52:31 PM »

That start was on firm ground at newmarket which the horse patently hated.

Here's a question- how do you tell a horse hates the ground? Can you see it when you watch the race, or do you just base it on them never doing well when it turns up good to soft, or what?
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horseplayer
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2013, 08:00:42 PM »

That start was on firm ground at newmarket which the horse patently hated.

Here's a question- how do you tell a horse hates the ground? Can you see it when you watch the race, or do you just base it on them never doing well when it turns up good to soft, or what?

For me it is generally just based on previous history when running on that ground.

Though in hindsight today maybe memory cloth either jarred itself up at newmarket or for whatever reason took more out of itself in the spring cup.

You do have to be very careful though, especially over recent years with excessive watering of courses by some clerks a good to soft at one course is not the same as a good to soft elsewhere, just to make life a bit harder Smiley

If the horse has never faced heavy ground for example then i would always look at the stats of the sire for some clues. As long as the sample size was relevant i would take this into some account though of course each horse is an individual and might not fit the trend.

The larger the sample size for that sire and the more positive or negative the a/e return (actual over expected based on market position) the more i would be confident in my thoughts on the horse handling the ground.
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horseplayer
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2013, 08:02:22 PM »

Spooky timing horsey, was just thinking this morning that we needed a specialist horseracering thread.

Re: Memory Cloth, 4-1 tight enough now? Was 8-1 with Ladbrokes last night.

One of my list horses runs on Tuesday, Arc Light 4.00 Newcastle. Oi oi!

for the purposes of this thread i am only taking the price if at least two bookmakers are offering the odds.

this will make life a bit tougher but i like a challenge

oi oi the arc!
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Horneris
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2013, 08:57:03 PM »

Will contribute to this thread too, shame it wasn't open last week, studied hard for all 3 days at York's Dante meet. I tend to only punt big if I've had a lot of time to really study a card hard, mainly when I go to the races (York, Ripon, Wetherby, Thirsk, sometimes Donny/Ponte) or big race days.

Got a lot of horses in my "nag me alerts" for the summer already, optimistic.
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typhoon13
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2013, 10:23:51 PM »


Good luck with the thread, pleased to see it back.
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