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Poker Hand Analysis
Jacks in the box.
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Topic: Jacks in the box. (Read 1987 times)
TightEnd
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Jacks in the box.
«
on:
May 29, 2007, 12:38:52 PM »
25 players left, money at 9. Long way to go, 37,000 average for the final
you have 12,300 in the BB, blinds are now 600-1200
Shortstack, who has been liberally pushing, does so for 3,200 in MP.
Michigan Jeff, loose, aggressive, aware moves all in for 16,000 on the button. I discounted AA/KK as I feel he is trying to get a blind involved with one of these two rather than just win shorty's chips but a range of pairs from 88-QQ and AQ/AK all perfectly possible..unlikely to be a worse hand than this.
You look down at a nasty one in this spot,
Do you call for all your chips...?
I did call but wasn't happy doing so.
result irrelevant, but I hate calling for all my chips rather than pushing for all my chips...
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Royal Flush
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #1 on:
May 29, 2007, 12:50:40 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on May 29, 2007, 12:38:52 PM
result irrelevant, but I hate calling for all my chips rather than pushing for all my chips...
A silly thing to say when you are a big fave against a range of hands.
JJ to me is not a nasty one in this spot, its a great hand to find, i leave scorch marks on the felt.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
jakally
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #2 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:04:47 PM »
Call - but I don't think a fold is a huge mistake.
You are only just better than 50% against the range you have him on, and that only gives you the side pot that doesn't double your stack.
Main pot eases the pain, but JJ isn't necessarily working well against 2 hands for this.
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TightEnd
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #3 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:12:25 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 29, 2007, 12:50:40 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 29, 2007, 12:38:52 PM
result irrelevant, but I hate calling for all my chips rather than pushing for all my chips...
A silly thing to say when you are a big fave against a range of hands.
JJ to me is not a nasty one in this spot, its a great hand to find, i leave scorch marks on the felt.
ok let me put it this way...
I am most likely accepting a race as the caller not the aggressor, or at least I thought I was as I viewed (at the time) AK as more likely than 10 10 say.
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UpTheMariners
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Re: Jacks in the box.
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Reply #4 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:35:22 PM »
if the structure of the tournament is a bit fast i call here otherwise, i fold and find a better spot.
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TightEnd
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #5 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:42:08 PM »
Quote from: UpTheMariners on May 29, 2007, 01:35:22 PM
if the structure of the tournament is a bit fast i call here otherwise, i fold and find a better spot.
30 minute levels, 10 minutes left at 600-1200
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UpTheMariners
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #6 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:46:56 PM »
i feel like he has pocket 10's
lol
i call here with the range given and your going to be pushing yourself in 10 minutes.
«
Last Edit: May 29, 2007, 01:54:09 PM by UpTheMariners
»
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TightEnd
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Re: Jacks in the box.
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Reply #7 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:54:25 PM »
Quote from: UpTheMariners on May 29, 2007, 01:46:56 PM
i feel like he has pocket 10's
lol
lol no actually
silly as I am, i thought this was a genuinely tough one as I am slap bang in his range I feel
I called given I was 10 minutes away from 800-1600 and I was only at a third of final table average chips so it was take the gamble and try to get in a position to impact the tournament
He showed
shortie has a random hand
so.....was I right to take the race here?
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UpTheMariners
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Re: Jacks in the box.
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Reply #8 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:57:24 PM »
your racing with a bit of extra value coming from the short stack. if you double youve got the chance to go deep into the tournament
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Royal Flush
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #9 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:57:40 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on May 29, 2007, 01:12:25 PM
I viewed (at the time) AK as more likely
So you have a short blind to stack ratio, there is some dead money in the pot with your sb and the bb, there is a very wide range 3k in there, and now you think your JJ is up against AK (making you a 57 vs 43 fave) and you want to fold so you can 'get it in first'?
I don't mean to be funny but i very much doubt your edge is big enough to turn down 57% shots with overlay!
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
boldie
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Re: Jacks in the box.
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Reply #10 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:57:52 PM »
yes you only have 10 BB's blinds will be going up fairly shortly and you want to win the tourney..you're still 16 places away from the money..I'll take a race every single time.
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TightEnd
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Re: Jacks in the box.
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Reply #11 on:
May 29, 2007, 01:59:50 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 29, 2007, 01:57:40 PM
I don't mean to be funny but i very much doubt your edge is big enough to turn down 57% shots with overlay!
he's not wrong.
p.s I called
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My eyes are open wide
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kinboshi
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We go again.
Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #12 on:
May 29, 2007, 04:25:48 PM »
I'd call and he'd hit there.
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portfolio
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #13 on:
May 29, 2007, 05:53:22 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 29, 2007, 12:50:40 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 29, 2007, 12:38:52 PM
result irrelevant, but I hate calling for all my chips rather than pushing for all my chips...
A silly thing to say when you are a big fave against a range of hands.
JJ to me is not a nasty one in this spot, its a great hand to find, i leave scorch marks on the felt.
agree 100%
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Spitroaster
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Re: Jacks in the box.
«
Reply #14 on:
May 30, 2007, 04:42:49 PM »
I like Jacks here because button play is designed to isolate the All In raiser. This play would most often AK, AQ AJ or med pair. It is a goog chance that early raiser has cards that interfear with hands like that taking reducing a race situation to a fair advantage in your favour.
Isolation Plays only work if the binds don't pick up a real hand.
Call. Hope.
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