Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Who Killed Lucy Beale market been around for years it seems

[Mark_Porter]

Ryan Bertrand is playing left wing for Saints tonight. Those with a good memory will remember him playing there in the champions league final. Targett is playing left back.

Plenty of anytime 12's about. Must be good for a fiver.

Cut by most now but Betfred, Sky, PP still asleep.

[TightEnd]

Ryan Bertrand. Where is he 12 anytime. I am  on the way to work and can't see odds checker

Ryan Bertrand is playing left wing for Saints tonight. Those with a good memory will remember him playing there in the champions league final. Targett is playing left back.

Plenty of anytime 12's about. Must be good for a fiver.

[Mark_Porter]

Ryan Bertrand. Where is he 12 anytime. I am  on the way to work and can't see odds checker

Ryan Bertrand is playing left wing for Saints tonight. Those with a good memory will remember him playing there in the champions league final. Targett is playing left back.

Plenty of anytime 12's about. Must be good for a fiver.

All gone. I have had another £5 with Paddy at 10's assuming you want it. Happy to keep if not. 5's/6's in most places now.

[TightEnd]

sorry awkwrd timing. checked betfred on mobile and 6/1

we will take your fiver pls

[Tal]

Is this a "Dont Bet on Facts" job?

8/11 Flack

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

68% want her to win in a small blog i follow

http://frankieandcloverstrictly.blogspot.co.uk/

Karen Hardy in Choreography Corner just said Caroline made "lots of mistakes" and that she was very lucky to get the marks she accumulated. Highlighted her poor footwork, frame and timing in the ballroom.

Apparently, similar things were said on Monday's show(?)

Is the tide turning?

you are the oracle, we're all ears.....

whilst she has undoubtedly been overmarked for ages, it shouldn't matter (bar falling over) what technical mistakes she makes now should it?

all about popularity/public vote

 

She has got 50% on digital spy 3 weeks on the bounce.  easy game

If the judges suddenly turn against her (well, mark her fairly if she makes mistakes), the public might be swayed - if they are told Caroline danced poorly, there might be a feeling she doesn't deserve to win.

It's a momentum show. Let's be candid: she's never been the worst dancer in the competition but she isn't the best. I'm happy with my 11/4 but I wouldn't touch 8/11 with Harry Styles's money.

The format for the final is:
- Contestant's favourite dance
- Judges' favourite dance they did
- Showdance.

When the first two are confirmed, feel free to post or PM me, as I can have a think about how they'll be scored. The judges' paddles are just there as a guide but they can still steer opinion.

The Showdance will be critical. Caroline wins if she nails it. She might win anyway, but there's room for the others to make a run. Kristina (Simon's partner) and Kevin (Frankie's) have both proved to be excellent, innovative and brave choreographers, who really understand how to sell their partner's strengths and hide their weaknesses. They're both far better than the other two pro dancers at that.

Maybe we should try to take some of Doobs's £1,474 on the lay side of 1.71?

Unless something happens in the week, she'll surely shorten, so, joking aside, this might be something to watch.

[Mark_Porter]

sorry awkwrd timing. checked betfred on mobile and 6/1

we will take your fiver pls

Not to worry, booked.

[vegaslover]

a lot of the NFL is first TD etc, not over/under less juice so that depresses the ROI a bit (unless you bink, which you do less frequently)

on a losing sport like Golf, not sure we have the volume to become statistically significant on finding tournament winners. quite a high variance activity from what i can see

motorsport no spacebar has improved a lot too and on several other losing sports we do much less than we did..partly an affirmative approach to do less where returns are comparatively low

Yeah agree with a lot of that, though nfl maybe could be a bit better as we generally going for sub markets rather than the mostly correct on the tissue main markets.
Agree that it is prob best for us to drop some markets that were more speculative and just never making a return.

[Tal]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

Click to see full-size image.

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

[DMorgan]

Spoils go 11/10 under 595.5

[Omm]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

[Tal]

Spoils go 11/10 under 595.5

Yes, sorry. I didn't mention that as I think, like Peter Manley's flamingo shirts, Fred doesn't bother with that outfit anymore.

MvG hit 59 the year before, while Taylor won it with 20. Getting MvG beat is obviously huge for the bet, but it seems live to me whatever.

The standard has seemingly improved with BDO leaders coming over and everyone getting more familiar and comfortable with the Sky TV exposure. That begets 180s, but I'd rather be an understacker than an overstacker this year.

[BigAdz]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

I like Ando at top 180s.

I recall backing him either last year or previous, and he knocked em in. Think he was knocked out in quarter but was still ahead after semis, if memory serves. If he is in better form, as I am being told, along with easier draw, should get a good run for the money.

[Tal]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                 PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.


The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

I have an idea as to how we can maximise our profit on these novelty markets. We need a mole.

Celebrity Jungle, Celebrity Jiggle About in Sequins, Celebrity Darts, Celebrity Cooking Doesn't Get Tougher Than This, Celebrity Pointing a Stick at an Orchestra.

We need a celebrity. We need someone who can get on the show and give us the inside scoop, the backstage gossip and all the details on whose bottom is soggiest. Let's look at the contenders:

Click to see full-size image.

The Ambassador offers a keen eye for detail and would give us plenty of information of relevance. The problem is he tends to be busy at the weekends and might not have accrued the holiday from his new employers to get the time off for ten weeks of ice skating in custard with Liza Tarbuck.



Our protagonist knows people who know people so we can be confident he could get a gig playing Jenga against Phil Tufnell in a shuttle 150 miles above the Earth.

He'd be perfect but for two problems: it's quite hard to get a decent latte in space; and if he enters, we can't use his accounts to bet.

Ok, so we need someone famous enough to get on the show, not so famous that they would look out of place, dapper, attentive and broadly inoffensive...what about that bloke from the Big Breakfast who wasn't Johnny Vaughan, Chris Evans, Zig, Zag, Tim Lovejoy, Ben the Boffin, Paul Ross or Keith Chegwin?



He'd be perfect.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-everton/winner

Wanyama and now Morgan S have picked up bookings tonight and both are now suspended for the weekend

Not sure best way to take advantage but Everton will not be 2/1+ this time tomorrow