Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/christmas-number-1-x-factor-winner-ben-haenow-takes-early-lead-in-incredibly-close-race-3358/

Haenow leads, Uptown Funk close behind (15% or so after streaming) rest, including band aid 30, nowhere. 

[superwomble]

BMU have a special on today, either of tonight's Capital One Cup games to go to penalties, 7/1. The games are Sheff Utd v Southampton and Derby v Chelsea. Doesn't look a great price to me, what do others think?

[DungBeetle]

It's a shame to think how much better an ODI team England would have without Cook.  He constantly wastes the powerplay and puts the others under pressure in terms of run rate.   It's a blessing when he gets out for nothing, than when he swallows up 49 powerplay balls getting 32 like today.

[AndrewT]

so what is there in 2015?

cricket world cup. against: early in the year, not on bbc. we won't win. becoming a minority sport

rugby world cup: late in the year. on itv. northern hemisphere chances

athletics world champs: which is why jessica ennis and mo farah are on the ante post list. in beijing on the bbc, going to be a big bbc treatment event

chris froome is favourite for the tdf



fwiw i would be thinking of athletes who might win their events in the world championships, outside mo and jess ennis who are already quoted

far more likely to win than any boxer barring something extraordinary, which is just my opinion

Is there not an argument here that the bet next year should be McIlroy (10/1)? He'd be, what, around evens to win a major next year, which gets him on the list for sure, at which point I can see a #justiceforrory campaign to right the wrong of this year.

Given that odd-numbered years can get odd winners, perhaps also a flier at Ronnie O'Sullivan (25/1) for a McCoy/Giggs/Taylor-style lifetime achievement award (Taylor only lost because he was up against McCoy).

[superwomble]

BMU have a special on today, either of tonight's Capital One Cup games to go to penalties, 7/1. The games are Sheff Utd v Southampton and Derby v Chelsea. Doesn't look a great price to me, what do others think?

Been having a look at this. You can get 8/1 the Sheff Utd game goes to penalties, and 8/1 the Derby game does, so on that point 7/1 doesn't look too bad. I think 8/1 is skinny for the Derby game especially though.

[TightEnd]

as per the report this morning

"Jabari Parker, Knee - is out indefinitely"

whilst this is a blow, i assume this puts Wggins in pole position to win NBA rookie of the eyar?

[TightEnd]

i think we have a few luton followers around

is 13/10 a price for them to win at home to Bury tonight?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/luton-v-bury/winner

Luton have terrific home form

[TightEnd]

meanwhile following on from the discussion on mariota, this came out today

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/16/marcus-mariota-2015-nfl-draft-prospects/

he appears to be rated just below Luck when he came out

currently Tampa Bay and the Titans are the two teams best placed to get him

[Omm]

Betfred doing an offer on the Darts. Money back as a free bet if it's an MVG v Taylor final. £50 max on the outright winner market.

Worth doing? If so what's the best way?

None of their prices on the outright market beat bf.

[bobby1]

BMU have a special on today, either of tonight's Capital One Cup games to go to penalties, 7/1. The games are Sheff Utd v Southampton and Derby v Chelsea. Doesn't look a great price to me, what do others think?

If it is still there it's good value mate

[vegaslover]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                 PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

ROI on Football and Horses probs should be low as it due to being so popular to bet on, allowing the bookies to get closer to the 'correct' prices.
Would have expected the NFL roi to be higher as we are betting with uk bookies, not the US ones.

Misc is obv the least reliable market for the firms to tissue up, and we got Tal/Chompy! so should be plenty of ricks.

TBH if we are being savvy in our betting we shouldn't really have any losing sports, overall, after this amount of time.

[BigAdz]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                 PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

As no one has stepped forward, I shall chuck in my 2p.

For all the piss taking, I happily admit I have followed a large amount of the Misc bets. Disclaimer; I don't watch any bar the Jungle one, but happy to profit from others, errr...........sacrifice...for their art!

I think the numbers have been skewed markedly over the last year as others(I include myself) have posted the majority of their bets on other specific threads, as the odd snipe/blatant attack/talk down to, has pushed some of us to safer posting waters. On a completely different, and unrelated note, where is Arbboy? I hope he is ok.

Scotty and Omm have posted some proper numbers on the Greyhound thread, Simonataur, and yes, even myself, have some pretty spectacular Positive ROIs on the Racing thread, and not all the winning Boxing/Cycling/Golf/NFL stuff makes its way here, that maybe used to.

I have also noticed a fair few bits from KMac/Icles Test and others, slip through the net on a regular basis.

The Misc guys have done an exceptional job, for sure, but I suspect they are hardened Internet Warriors, who take their criticism and piss take a bit better, and carry on posting regardless. It has to be in their genes, if they are happy to sit and watch that sort of tripe day after day. God Bless em.


All my humble opinion of course.

[TightEnd]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                  PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

ROI on Football and Horses probs should be low as it due to being so popular to bet on, allowing the bookies to get closer to the 'correct' prices.
Would have expected the NFL roi to be higher as we are betting with uk bookies, not the US ones.

Misc is obv the least reliable market for the firms to tissue up, and we got Tal/Chompy! so should be plenty of ricks.

TBH if we are being savvy in our betting we shouldn't really have any losing sports, overall, after this amount of time.

a lot of the NFL is first TD etc, not over/under less juice so that depresses the ROI a bit (unless you bink, which you do less frequently)

on a losing sport like Golf, not sure we have the volume to become statistically significant on finding tournament winners. quite a high variance activity from what i can see

motorsport no spacebar has improved a lot too and on several other losing sports we do much less than we did..partly an affirmative approach to do less where returns are comparatively low

[hector62]

With our expertise on TV tripe, is anyone going to suggest backing the hotel owner as the child abductor in The Missing? He maybe the favourite but that is who I thought from my first glimpse of him.

[icles test]

With our expertise on TV tripe, is anyone going to suggest backing the hotel owner as the child abductor in The Missing? He maybe the favourite but that is who I thought from my first glimpse of him.

Seen a one about who killed someone in eastenders, 200/1 dot cotton looks OOL