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News, views, tips..

Already one very good reason to watch this series

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS-vRB5CYAALhRk.jpg:large)

Also confirmed so far are

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS0k95YIIAAs8Op.jpg:large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS764Q6CAAARr6x.jpg)

Rachel Riley = IN.

Looks like it's going to be a good year.

(http://www.fmwf.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Susanna-Reid--264x300.jpg)

ban ban and ban

imo

Abby Clancy is next

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS_ssw8CIAA88iO.jpg)


Vintage year in prospect

I already want her out. Does my nut in, whenever I see her on TV.

More sportsmen, please.

Surprised by this.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2405331/Rebecca-Adlington-reveals-turned-new-series-Strictly-Come-Dancing.html

Given how much she's said she's a fan of the show in the past I'd have thought she'd be nailed on to appear.

I don't usually watch it, but got a feeling I might not get a choice this year!

confirmed

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTJHentCIAAKX7o.jpg:large)



The One show 7pm tonight, all the names revealed


Much excitement

I really like her :)

You realise that the pictures that come up when you search google images are photo shopped?

Full line up released a few hours early in Wales it seems

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/whats-on/film-tv/lineup-strictly-come-dancing-2013-5828055

Julien Macdonald has been a regular popper-upper on It Takes Two to discuss the outfits, so he should be fun. Don't know who a few of those are, though, which may be a blessing or a curse.

As ever, I hope there are good dancers in the group, as the novelty of terrible dancers has long worn off for me.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-23931149

Full list and pics.

If Sophie Ellis Bextor gets Brendan, I would be delighted. I fancy she's feisty enough for him but keen to succeed when the limelight is elsewhere with the pouty ones.

Couple of strapping lads, too.

Interested to see Mr Cohen in the Latin and, conversely, Mr Macdonald in the ballroom.

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/304/media/images/69608000/jpg/_69608420_riley.jpg)

There you go. Should keep you entertained while I waffle on about sequins, appels and throwaway oversways...

No erin boag this year I need a new favourite pro dancer

Yes, I'm curious as to who Anton will be dancing with in the Pro demonstrations

I'm going poker pro for a moment...


Oioioioioioiiiiiiiiiiilegogogogogogogogogochachacharrrrrr!!!!!!

Pretty dev'd that Aliona is with Tony Jacklin - she prob won't be around long :(

If anything's going to spark a woman into labour it's surely watching the old man gyrating with Ola Jordan.

Biggest thing we will see tonight is people doing Latin with their weight too far back. You should never walk. The weight should be on the balls of the feet, so leaning slightly forward.

This opening lad is going to go far. Plenty of room for improvement of course but he has a good coach.

The severrrrrn could be making an immediate appearance

Most of what Craig is saying relates to the weight being back. Can't get the hips going without that and the foot placement is much easier then, too.

This isn't awful.

Hope they comment on him shaping his hands

The big worry for Tony will be he has his Latin next week...

;hide;

I thought he did fine. It was a bit of a dog's dinner technically, but he got through without forgetting his lines too often and he had obviously worked really hard on it.

Tough to follow Mr Hotty though, I suppose.

This one should be interesting.

Tango is kind of unfair early on. Completely different posture and foot positions in this to the other ballroom dances (flexed knee all the way through, with no rise and fall). Means for his next ballroom dance he has to start from scratch.

But he did remarkably well. Fives and sixes coming. Maybe even a seven

Also, as seen there, a man can get through a Tango purely on attitude.

I suppose that is the payoff in fairness. Could say the same for the cha cha tho.

I'm looking forward to seeing this guy dance - yes, Kevin. He looked fab the other week.

Oooh Susannah is good - really enjoying herself.

I barely saw her. Possible mancrush incoming...by 'eck!

No, seriously, she has so much energy for a week one jive.

And I love the Blues Brothers!

Did no one in wardrobe tell Bruno that shirt and jacket do not go together?

very good from Susannah. gave it 110% bruce, lots of energy.

liked it

He's worn worse...

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHwVBirqD2s

She has definitely listened to her coach and I think people will warm to Kevin. His legs for a little lad are amazing. Almost, dare I compare, like watching Matt Cutler

A little indelicate from the waist down from Miss Ellis-Bextor but she really looked like she enjoyed that.

Who have we lumped on at 50s?

Good from Sophie, but that is a very good dance for her to get week 1 - she's a dainty, floaty, ethereal thing anyway. In a salsa or cha cha cha I can see her being stiff.

Natalie is far too good for week 1, and her VT has far too much false modesty in it - she knows she's really good at this and that's quite off-putting.

this.

might be quite unpopular after a few weeks

would be backing reid over her at a bigger price on tonight's evidence

Without doubt the biggest reason why she won't win, unless it is rectified.

Technically, that was an absolute belter. So quick for a week one dance and she gave it the full beans.

Think the judges had to find fault in it, where they wouldn't have been as harsh on others for hip movement.

Fullarton at the big price tomorrow night. Anyone on Susannah Reid will be delighted right now.

Just watched the dances again. I didn't catch Craig's comment to Natalie first time, when he said "The fringing covered up a multitude of sins". He is right in that her legs weren't straight and there was no power going through the floor (see her weight not being over the balls of her feet). The fringing made it look like her hips were moving when they weren't.

Still by far the best dance of the night.

This is what a Waltz can look like.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gvomcBo8xI

Marcus and Karen Hilton were world champs nine times and crushed good and proper for much of the Nineties. This was a showdance of some description in I guess Japan. A lot of the steps in this are basic steps in the Waltz that you would see on a Saturday night with the celebs. The whole thing is built on the basics.

Incredible dancer, Marcus Hilton.

Both he and his wife have the MBE and they have more titles and awards than I could post ITT.

Ben Cohen is terribad - Craig's gonna tear him a new arse.

Keep the updates coming. I'm playing at Walsall.

Fiona Fullerton was pretty good (and looks amazing for 56).

The Hairy Biker went for comedy and lol-wackiness and really needs to sod off.

Sounds promising

Rachel Riley did a pretty waltz, and looked gorgeous, but was very much within herself and I'm not sure she'll be able to pull off a convincing Latin.

And now Julien McDonald dancing to Vogue is even more gay than that sounds.

He can only be the third most camp behind Julian Clary in series one and, of course, The Grant.

I may have made an error in that I haven't drunk anything yet, but Deborah Meaden and Vanessa Feltz are still to come.

Quite pleased with both Patrick and Abby tonight, my cheeky bets have a chance.

Go on Fiona!

Still 59/1 on betfair; same price I backed her at.

If she's danced like you say, this could be a ripper

May just watch some of this. Only because of Rachel though, may stick a mugs £50 on her so I can have an excuse to watch her

Guys what's your thoughts on Mark Benton, huge price at the moment, thought his first dance went ok ish, and he has a comical factor about him which might get the public on his side as well as all that he has been touring with Hairspray so he must have some sort of rhythm, which through training can only get better?

Can only see his price getting shorter over the next month.

What's the negatives?

Great question. He was full of attack and surprisingly agile. The difficulty is he danced the tango, which for an actor will be the easiest to convey. It is also a ballroom dance entirely of itself, where the next ballroom dance he will have to learn the ballroom hold, heel leads and smooth, flowing movement rather than all that staccato. In plain English, he will be a week behind anyone who has done the Waltz in their first couple of weeks.

What we do know is he will be working hard and that he will likely get through the first few weeks, provided he can negotiate this weekend's salsa (typically the portly person's problem dance, because it is full of different rhythms and all that armography, dahhhling...). Iveta isn't a household favourite, although I am sure she is lovely and has been around the show for a little while.

Always tough to tell after one dance, to be fair. I'd see how he goes this weekend (he won't be top of the leaderboard, so your price won't change enormously in all likelihood) and you are then making an assessment based on having seen him having a go at both disciplines.

No Brucie this week. Sadly, he has 'flu.

We have the Winkelman instead. Not Ronnie Corbett.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/tv/strictly-come-dancing/342862/From-the-cha-cha-to-the-Charleston-Strictly-Come-Dancing-piles-on-the-pressure

Dances and songs are on the link above. The stuff I have to read for you people...

I'm going to stick my neck out here...I don't think Suzannah will drop below 30 in ballroom in this competition. That wasn't a stellar dance but there was loads of content and she gave it the beans. Her core needs to be a lot stronger but it will abd, when it does, she will be seeing nines.

Definite contender

Meanwhile, double bogey for Jacklin

Natalie's waltz was insanely good for a first ballroom. A hugely long neck and some wonderful timing. More heel leads though (Len reliable to spot that. Does annoy me when the other judges don't pick up on it)

Waltz has three beats in the bar and the first step when forward should be on the heel (like a normal waking step). That's in all ballroom dances (although tango is slightly different)

You see. Dave Myers has listened to what Karen has taught him and came out in his heels. He tried so hard there but he isn't a dancer. We might see him for a few weeks although I don't see him getting 25 any time soon.

Patrick didn't look the least bit comfortable to me. Lots of rhythm but it didn't click. Get a bad one out early, I suppose

Rachel had a very short and fringy dress on, which was courageous but she didn't look very sexy . I never felt they were dancing together or telling a story, but that sort of thing comes with time. She looked a lot better than the first group dance and 20 is fair in my eyes. Salsa isn't an easy one if you aren't musical.

If anyone else fancies contributing, feel free :D

Feel like the mad bloke dancing on his own in a club as soon as it opens...

Vanessa absolutely epitomised what I mean about dancing with your partner. James has become an excellent coach and he delivered a wonderful product tonight. She won't win, but she won't come last (unless the public turns against her for crying...don't you dare, you heartless bastards!)

Rachel's appeal has always come from the fact that, as gorgeous as she is, she always has the look of a girl who has just discovered the dressing up box this morning - she's pretty and wholesome, which is why we all enjoy it when she wears clothes borrowed from the Pussycat Dolls on Countdown.

She really does struggle with sultry, which will always hurt her in Latin. It looked from the VT when they went to the salsa club in midweek that she'd had a couple of drinks, and I think she might need to do that before her dances - she looks as if she would be tremendous fun with a few glasses of wine inside her.

Not often you see a tango where the man looks like he's under the thumb. Sorry Julian. The problem with having to flex the knees in tango (there's no rise and fall in this dance; it is all on the same level) is that you have a tendency to sit a little and stick your bum out. You'll see that a lot in the early tangos.

Right then. Fiona.

Also, and we say this every time, but Tess & Claudia >>>>>>> Bruce & Tess

I want Claudia and Brucie tbh.

Fiona just did an impression of a lot of Anton's partners. She needs to conquer her nerves because she does have it there.

Ridiculous to give her 6. Utterly ridiculous. Not often I accuse Craig of giving too many marks!

Bumped for self-love


Dance of the night by a mile. Absolutely FANTASTIC

What a filthy little flapper Sophie is!

36!!!

Sophie Ellis-Bextor. Take a bow.

7/2 SkyBet, on already.  Need to be betting not commentating Tal, but cheers.

Mark Benton continues to impress with his vigour. Ben Cohen meanwhile looks understandably uncomfortable. The latter has more chance of winning but I fear the former has more chance of making the last few weeks.

That's too short probably on the basis of one dance and likely the worst time to bet on her. There are probably six or seven who genuinely could win this. I'm surprised with the talent already.

Abi has loads of attitude but I don't find her very elegant.

Right. Being on last usually means good, so what can Mr Ashley Holly-Oaks do?

Cheers, topped up.

Not bad for three days' training. I think his agent will be enquiring as to whether there is a vacancy in Top Hat in the New Year.

He's the front running male at the moment, but he won't get it all his own way in a month or so.

Ha!! Bless you ;)

Yay - we can vote online for free!

Well, we will as soon as the Beeb put another 50p in their web server's electric meter. :(

I was quite surprised by a few tonight. Deborah had very good timing and Vanessa had genuine heart in her dance. Dave Myers will struggle a bit because he is behind Mark Benton in both the being a bit bonkers stakes and the dancing stakes.

I think Anton will be a bit worried tonight. I don't think he needs to be about tonight, but he has to find a way of getting Fiona to overcome her stagefright to have any chance of progressing.

Sophie had so much musicality and a wonderful swivel. It sets her up for other Latin dances, which I hadn't really expected.

I was worried last week that it was going to be two or three at the top and ten weeks of farce. I'm delighted that I was wrong.

Ban

Ooh, LOVE elegance, such a rare thing these days.

Camel is not wrong. You should all be Banned.

I've had a surprisingly good innings, tbf

Best price 3/1 now.  <3 Tal

Bit harsh getting banned when I haven't even watched the show.

Double Ban.

If anyone's wondering where the man in the hat is, he is still in the band, but not in the normal shot, as the band has a slightly different place in the new studio.

Barely any jiving, Abbey. Too much skirt wafting for my taste. Needs to put her weight more forward, point her toes, finish her lines and embrace the dance a bit. Apart from that...

thought Abi was overmarked

the sitting down section and lots of pro holding her hands during the jive masked, or tried to, her weaknesses in it...ie dance for a shorter time

We all know the judges like some people...

whereas for Robinson, its easier to be in hold all dance, to a slow number

lots of hidden luck in which dance you get in which week...ballroom much simpler for the weaker men

Myers. Wholehearted

Won't be voted off whatever the judges say

Re Patrick, Absolutely. One of my favourite foxtrot songs, too. The slight problem for Patrick is his partner is slightly too small for him. The temptation is to lean forward and stick your bum out or to keep the back straight and leave gaps.

The foxtrot is the hardest dance of the ballrooms by a distance. You don't move your feet in time with the beat; you are almost half a beat behind because you have to catch up on the Quicks in order to make sure your strides are the same length as the Slows. Patrick didn't get that but it's harsh to expect it of him so early

His face throughtout made me think Karen smells

I do suspect it's the best version he's done of it, though.

Perfect dance for Fullarton. Anton in his element. slow, wafty. See her next week

Had some 200/1 yesterday ;)

If you register online to vote at www.bbc.co.uk/strictly you get five votes

Now to work out game theory tactics as to how to split them Hairy Crapbiker and Julien the Jiver to get our man bottom two

Fiona still massively suffering with her nerves. Will make or break her.

Riley's Cha Cha Cha is so flat. Don't think she'll ever lose her inhibition

The song doesn't help for that. Her legs are slightly straighter but really only slightly.

Not going to win on tonight's evidence.

Mark Benton is just a massive upgrade on Hairy Byker. He has some natural rhythm at least

Hover cross...weave...fabulous. Well done, Mark. That's what I like to watch in the "weaker" contestants.

Kristina's dress.

(http://www.mamapop.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/tex-avery.png)

I want him bottom two just to see Kristina again. Flipping heck.

Overmarked mind, he didn't do a lot.

I want her bottom two.

Hang on, that doesn't really make sense.

I thought that was excellent. He is a contender if he keeps progressing like that. Kristina didn't need to turn up wearing a serviette.

Hips on the side basics were excellent. Forward and back less so, but it was a lot, lot better than I expected.

That adds pressure to the others, because they would have expected Ben to have been down the bottom with an early male rumba.

Sophie was a bit flat for a Rio Carnival. When the trumpets kicked in, she found new energy.

Lots of content is always a good sign. The professional has confidence in his pupil

I can probably guess one of the bottom two...

I don't think Susanna did a fleckerl. Kevin did, but she just did a standing spin. That wasn't what they were doing on the penalty spot at Selhurst Park.

I'll have to watch it again.

Nevertheless, I really liked her Viennese Waltz. The judges were sort of compelled to give nines because they'd overmarked some of the others.

The music is so important for the competitors as well. That tango for Vanessa is naturally stompy, which is the last thing you want.

Sophie Ellis Bextor is the favourite is she?

Is she 'eck!

It should be obvious who the bottom two will be but it isn't, as the voting public will have their say. So...which of the middle pack will drop down?

Think Ben Cohen is too far up to drop into that red zone.

Dave because his score was so poor

Julien because no one will vote for him

Vanessa will survive, though her re-incarnation of Jason Lee at Nottingham Forest c 1986 was a but unnecessary


Natalie was brilliant, presumably has shortened from 3-1 again?

Bit unlucky with Ben, the pro played it for the female voters the shameless vote getter

If the bottom 2 are Julian and Dave surely the judges would save Julian again, making 6-1 on Dave quite attractive?

Throw away my eyes, for I have seen it all

Surprised with Ashley's dance. Doesn't step very far and that makes it difficult to look elegant. His upper body is graceful but not very manly. Compare Brendan.

Tal, Fiona is into 5-1 with betfair and a few others for next elimination but still 16-1 with sky and betfred, any mileage in this? Would the judges save her if she was in the bottom 2?

If she's up against Julian and they both dance like they did tonight, Julian will go.

But she is not delivering on the promise she has shown and that is a bad sign. I would love to see her get through a whole dance. I think as it stands she will get another chance to do that rumba.

But...that's, what, a 10% difference in price. Tough to say there isn't value.

Just get as much as you can on.  Really straightforward.

Sciatica my backside

Market gone on BetFred.  They laid me £3 before they did that.

Yeah thought it made sense, managed to get £10 on.

I have taken the 8s too.  I wouldn't worry about the percentage, they were more than double where they should have been.  Glad you got on.

No one has Julian MacDonald priced up so it looks like he has gone.

I really am annoyed that the bookies do that.

I think it is bad for bookies to take bets on non runners.  I assume Betfair suspend as several of their users have less scruples than the average bookie?

I concur.

All bookies should suspend between 9pm Saturday and 9pm Sunday.

Do we want to make this a NO SPOILER thread, and anything is fair game on TfT?

I have never watched a second of this before tonight but I am staying overnight at my mother's who is a big fan (target audience ftw)

Saw 3 dancers, came in half way through Abby Clancy and she was so good I honestly didn't know who the pro and who was the C list celeb until they gave the names at the end.

This must be a good thing for her chances, right?



PS I am not planning on watching another 8 minutes of this in my lifetime.

She did very well and she makes a great pairing with Aljaž. She is undoubtedly a contender. The only question is whether she can improve much more than the level she is at right now. To win, she will need to be better than she is. I'd like to see her do well.

The point you make about not knowing who the pro is is a really interesting one. I think some pros are better at 'toning down' how they perform so as not to show up their celeb partner. That's quite a skill but someone like Ola is brilliant at it and Aljaž is doing that well with Abbey. What you want to happen is exactly what you said - the audience think the celeb is dancing like a pro, when part of it is the pro not showing the celeb up.

You get moments where the celeb dances like a pro and Natalie (who TFT is on) definitely has more of those than most.

And you will definitely watch it again. You'll be giving it the "Aye Aye"s in no time ;)

Natalie has been the winner of this series since the very first show, but then it's a public vote show so she probably won't!!

Ben Cohen, Jive. 

Can't see how standing still while Kristina dances in front of him works here.  8/1 next elimination with Paddy Power is the only price on offer and they don't lay me much.

Now we can discuss last week, Dave and Mark must have been pretty popular.  I was beginning to think I had missed the boat with Abbey, but she must have been bottom of the popularity list.  Not sure how we can get Dave in the bottom 2, but all these ties don't help.

Does all this make Ben the elimination value? 

Is this billed as a dancing competition or a popularity competition?

Doesn't the fact Abbey (who was undeniably excellent) made the bottom two make the whole programme pointless?

Its a bit of both

the judges mark on dancing

the public mainly on popularity

each week the votes of the two segments are amalgamated, so you get it voted for on ability and entertainment


thus people win it (chris hollins) who aren't the best dancer

people stay in for ages because of entertainment value (john sargent, anne widdecombe, dave myers in this season)


the Psephology of the voting on SCD is quite complex, and that's part of the fascination.

"fascination" you say?

Most interesting application of that adjective I've seen in a goodly while.

Is there any evidence of a 'justice bounce' after a week like this, where next week Abbey picks up extra votes from people who think 'it wasn't fair she was in the dance-off last week'?

Not especially

We need to think about demographics

who is the core voter

female 25-60

Abby doesn't appeal to this voter. She is a good dancer but has no personality, not really got a platform to push herself (in a soap, on breakfast tv etc) and isn't with a known professional

She isn't ever getting thrown out next week votes or not.  I was previously worried she could win and I haven't backed her.  I just don't think she can win now, as she must have scored lower than the likes of Patrick and Fiona who we know aren't very popular.  I think that must put her on only 2 or 3% of the vote.

At some stage, you'd expect an anti Nat pro dancer backlash, but it is hard to see anyone else that can win other than Sophie now.  So I think I must have a near lock on the win result.

If Dave got 10% of the vote (I am guessing he was at least 4th) on what looked flat entertainment wise, then I am not sure he can be bottom 2 when he does something amusing.  My previous view on his (lack of) popularity must have been a bit out. 

Fiona is an obvious choice for this weeks elimination, but I have already had as much as I can on Ben.  It isn't much.

I would imagine there is a lot more females watching the show than males, so it definitely increases the chance of a decent looking male picking votes.

Ben Cohen, 30+ points last weekend, fantastic reaction from audience and most importantly the judges and there will be lots of votes from females for sure.

He isn't going next week & I know naff all about Strictly.

Looks like this year's audience are those who like a sense of humour* in a man.  I know very little about dancing, but Ben was clearly overmarked.  I assume he can't do the topless bit with Bruno again next week. Bet365 are now 10/1 and they'll lay me a bet. 

* for clarity, I am not saying I find the hairy biker bloke funny and I have an outstanding best man bet on Ben. 

I know nothing about dancing Doobs, but I see it as a massive struggle to see him get eliminated.

As mentioned above, he would probably need to be in the dance off with Natalie or Susanna to get booted off the show.

Obviously I have no idea about betting as I backed Deborah!

I've got Ben consistently wrong

What he does have is

- popular support with females
- big gay icon support
- one of THE best professionals - popular and a terrific choreographer. She is also popular with the gay community too

Jive should not suit him at all. She can't flounce round him while he stands there open chested flexing his pecs. He has to move, kick and flick in time, perform...

But I reckon popular vote keeps him out of bottom two almost whatever he scores

Having caught up on the weekend, the Dave thing surely has to wear thin any week now.

I was fairly sure the Dave thing was going to wear out soon, but now think I was too early.  Given Abbey was 2nd. then we now know that Dave can't be in the bottom 4 or 5 for popularity.  Now I have a better idea of his popularity amongst the voters, I don't think I can back him at this week's 3/1 when last week he was 4/1.   You can deduce Mark is popular too, so don't think I can back him either.  I think Patrick always wins the dance off vs the other outsiders, so don't think he can be a bet either.

The obvious bet is Fiona.  She isn't good enough or bad enough to get many votes, and she isn't likely to get 35 any time soon.  But she is 7/4 and Ben is 10/1.  Dave is the only obvious one that she beats in a dance off.  I will probably back her if someone goes 2/1.  I am licking my wounds a bit after last week. 

Ben was marked fairly IMO. He will need to loosen up in his back if he is to conquer the jive, but he shouldn't have any footwork problems, because he had no trouble getting his weight forward in other Latin dances and he is capable of making his feet move quickly. It isn't an easy dance, though, for a big guy.

Remember that they can do a jitterbuggy jive with lots of throws and catches, so expect to see plenty of that on display. Kristina isn't daft.

Couple of value bets for The bottom 2 market for this week.

Patrick and Ben are both 3-1 with PP, it's only 3 firms offering odds however Ladbrokes go 13/8 and 11/4 respectively and betfair are hovering either side of 6/4.

Obviously both Mark and Fiona are odds on for bottom 2 and we are now getting to the business end so the eliminations might be getting more predictable, that being said the reason I think the bottom 2 market to be different is because of the public. There have been some strange bottom 2 over the last few weeks, Abbey for example and Rachael after her best performance. Mark was in the bottom 2 last week and may benefit from a bounce in voting on the back of it, It could be Fiona's turn to drop into the bottom 2 but not sure how big her fan base is and it doesn't really matter because I think all it takes is for 1 of them not to be in the bottom 2 and that then makes the 3-1 on both Ben and Patrick quite attractive. As well as this Patrick has already been in the dance off a few weeks ago and although he is getting better he could be susceptible to people forgetting to vote for him again.

Anyway thought I would point it out just in case anyone wants to get on, Tal, Doobs and Jaffa I'll happily put it up as a rec in TFT if you agree with the price and reasoning.

Didn't Patrick get something like 36 points in his dance?

He was very good, but overmarked IMO. I do wonder sometimes whether the judges decide to spice things up a bit every now and then. Ashley has been the top man for the whole series and really has been a cut above. So, they gave Partrick a bit of extra praise and now that competition is back on.

Ashley has improved. A lot. His frame in the ballroom is much better and he continues to have timing and performance. The only question mark is his popularity. He's been riding high on the leaderboard so hasn't had to worry about the public vote, but the field is slimmer now and, if he were to end up in the dance off with, say, Abbey (a public vote bounce for Mark isn't out of the question), he might well be the one to go. I have no idea about how much he is liked, as it hasn't really been tested, yet.

That would make it a straight fight between Patrick and Ben for top man, if he were to go. It is pretty close between them, I would say. Patrick is the better dancer, but Ben has got some of the harder dances out of the way.

How do the judges scores effect things Tal? If a celeb gets 30 does that mean 30 x ? + public vote = final vote?

Everyone gets ranked based on judges' scores and gets points based on that:

For example:

Natalie 36 gets 10 points
Sophie 35 gets 9 points
Ashley 32 gets 8
Patrick 27 gets 7

...

Mark 18 gets 1 point.


Then, the same thing happens with the public vote and the total points is what decides who goes through.

So when Abby scores highly yet still in the dance off she must be highly unpopular?

it's a weird set of voting isn't it, looking at it like that, surely that Fiona must be going next?

In theory, yes. Sometimes it's just that people deliberately try to save someone else for some reason (harshly treated by the judges?) and someone in the middle gets dragged down to the bottom two because everyone assumes they don't need any help.

The other important thing is to realise if there are ties the results are compressed.  So if Patrick, Sophie and Mark all get 35, they all get 9 and the next person gets 8.  So if there are a lot of ties one week, Mark is more likely to be saved.

You can be sure Abbey was absolute bottom of the public vote the week she was in the dance off.  Also I think Dave had to be at least 4th(maybe 5th can't remember exactly) and Mark at least 5th(maybe 6th).  All this isn't as much help as you think, as this kind of maths stopped me backing Dave this week.  I do think it means Abbey isn't nearly popular enough to win.

I am much happier with my Patrick top man bet than the Ben one, but he was clearly overmarked this week.  Ashley still clear for me.  The worry is that Wooden Ben might be more popular than both. 
 

ok i found this poll from the weekend too help people work out who has the public support and how much

Abbey and Aljaz   17.79%
Ashley and Ola   16.62%
Ben and Kristina    5.76%
Dave and Karen    2.98%
Fiona and Anton   1.28%
Mark and Iveta     2.03%
Patrick and Anya    16.40%
Sophie and Brendan    11.61%
Susanna and Kevin    25.52%


going too be a bit screwed as nat didnt dance

Some real surprises there.

This is way too geeky to post elsewhere...

...Mark danced to You Can't Stop The Beat from Hairspray. Now, I know he is in that at the moment, but why do the producers let these people dance to songs that have already been danced to before, especially the more modern ones?

Austin Healy did a jive to this before. His was also much better than Mark's

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w490KHjDOm8

Seem to recall this was early, so allow for that. Yes it was a bit skippy and yes his arms weren't very good. Very light on his feet, though.

I didn't really get Natalie's dance. It was obviously brilliantly innovative, but she wasn't clinical throughout and I think Artem missed a trick by dancing too well himself. It made her look unfairly bad by comparison. The judges can see past that, of course, but the voters might not.

I think the gap overall has closed. Fiona and Mark are below the others, then Ben and Patrick, then everyone else.

seen a poll last night with suzanne geting 48% of the vote

infact here it goes

Mark and Iveta   3.28%
Ashley and Ola   10.00%
Abbey and Aljaz   8.73%
Ben and Kristina   3.23%
Natalie and Artem  14.16%
Sophie and Brendan   7.26%
Patrick and Anya   3.45%
Fiona and Anton   1.23%
Susanna and Kevin   48.66%

Read more: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s104/strictly-come-dancing/news/a531743/strictly-come-dancing-week-eight-poll-who-stole-the-show-in-blackpool.html#ixzz2kvTu8rwO
Follow us: @digitalspy on Twitter | digitalspyuk on Facebook

This isn't the public vote; just an opinion poll of who had the best dance.

Don't forget that the public aren't voting for who they thought did the best dance, so take those numbers with a pinch of salt

Patrick Robinson available @15 on BF if anyone wants to get on, generally 7 to 9's elsewhere.

Have been out this evening, so just watching tonight's episode...

Patrick did a belter, but I had to agree with Craig that his weight fell back a bit towards the end (you need to be on the balls of your feet for a lot of this stuff), but that's frankly understandable, given just how much work he did in that dance. Worse dances than that definitely got tens, so can't really fault the marks, even though he'd only have got a 9 from me.

Natalie has what these arty folk call musicality. She feels the music and has a wonderful way of interpreting it.

Len was spot on that there wasn't a lot of foxtrot in it and IIRC the American Smooth is supposed to be 40% in hold and 60% as you wish. This had nowhere near that ratio. I wonder whether the judges are getting a bit picky just to create a bit of drama, because if Patrick had done that dance tonight, I would be interested to see the score.

She's a glorious dancer, though.

Mark wasn't born to samba. He gave it a jolly good go, though. Hard not to smile watching him, because he enjoys it so much. Lots of technical stuff in there and he didn't forget any steps.

He will surely have to do it again, though.

Tbf, not sure what price you'd have got at the start of the competition on him getting 29 for a samba, but I wouldn't have taken it.

Sophie next.

A proper Viennese Waltz. Seen too many VWs with lots of time out of hold. I think she got a bit tired towards the end and her shoulders came up a bit, so she lost her posture.

Brendan is not frightened to test Sophie and that was a very difficult routine. It is sort of Sophie's comfort zone, being that refined character. Next week's Latin will be another beast.

Four nines entirely fair IMO.

This was probably Abbey's breakout dance. She nailed it. I must admit I find her a bit distant sometimes when she is dancing, as though she's focusing on remembering the routine or worrying about the lift that's coming up. Not a bit of it tonight.

Again, she had LOADS to do and handled it with aplomb.

As before, the question is whether she can carry that into the ballroom next week, given how natural it is for us to "get" the mood of a disco song. No question, that was a final dance.

The rumba is a beastly dance for the men but Ashley coped well. To be honest, this is generally a dance the men just look to get past, so that they can get it out of the way. If he doesn't get hips on the forward and back basics, he can't win. I didn't think he got his arms quite right, but it is hard to be harsh to him, as he's had two Latin dances with stupid themes in recent weeks.

He'll get through if he's up against Mark and he can get back to pushing for the big scores.

Susannah, what went wrong?!

I'm afraid Kevin gave her too much to do; it was simply too quick for her. Had he toned it down just 10%, she could have got 40, because she can do it, she has furious energy, lovely lines and excellent footwork. But she made a mistake - I'm guessing forgot a step or two - and one begat two, begat three and so on.

These are the margins. Like I say, she could have delivered an absolute blockbuster tonight, but she made a couple of slips and ended up second bottom.

As ever, just my own armchair opinion.

One of my favourite musicals as well, Singin' in the Rain. Two incredible dancers in that film. Gene Kelly got all the accolades, but Donald O'Connor couldn't half move.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SND3v0i9uhE

Cheers for the rundown Tal.

I can go to bed now, thanks.......

Hope Natalie doesn't win it, sick of her crying e every week, bore off with the waterworks!

Susanna (why the H, Tahl?) not very popular in the digital spy polls.  People aren't happy with Abbey either, they have taken against the disco dancing and formation dancing.  To be fair I have started to get grouchy with all the random dancers on stage.  Sophie crushing in the polls this week again.

Today's question, without looking on Betfair, who is known as The Gurner there?  You'll probably find a spoiler there, so wouldn't recommend it anyway.

I'm not a fan of the backing dancers, either. Always good to learn we have common ground.

I'm guessing the gurner is Sophie or Natalie but it's a vulgar moniker whoever. I don't see why people have to be so unkindand personal about these things.

There isn't anything really unkind about it, gurning is just pulling a face.  All the women left are fairly attractive, so I don't think it is any reflection of anybody's looks.  It is Susanna FWIW, and every time I see her dance I can't help thinking about it now.  Seeing some of the forced expressions is just one of the things that amuses me, along with the fake tans, and some of the more ridiculous outfits.  I am not sure there is much malice in it.

Back to the contest, Sophie is back challenging her for 2nd favouritism.  She is clear 2nd favourite again on Betfair, so not sure how long that 7/2 with the bookies lasts, Susanna out close to 7/2 on Betfair, 3/1 best with the bookies.

I don't know about the general population, but there has been a lot of chatter on the forums about how she has been unfairly marked a few times.  I expect you'd probably see it as the others have been overmarked.  I just see it as Craig marking about right, 2 of the others getting carried away, and Len just picking a card at random.

For those that like an arb and have functioning accounts, Patrick is 6/4 top man with Laddies, Ashley 4/5 with Coral.   I haven't got a functioning Ladbrokes account, so will probably give it a miss, 11/8, 8/11 feels about right.  Ashley clearly was less popular than Susanna in last week's vote, but don't think he is less popular than Patrick.

Anyway Tal, I know you are a big fan of Kevin from Grimsby, but don't you think he pushes himself a bit too much?  I mentioned before how I thought he was drawing a bit too much attention to himself in the Paso Doble, I think he was at it again at the weekend.         

I haven't worked out who has which dances left and I'm learning I'm best away from assessing prices.

Kevin has been a little enthusiastic in a few of his dances and I've spoken before that I believe the professional has to be careful of how well they dance, in case they effectively show up their partner. Even a good dance can be made to look inadequate next to a pro. I'm sure that's just a learning thing. He might be dancing for his place next year, with Vincent in the Jungle.

One thing he does every week is choreograph a performance; every one is a showstopper. The pros have their own styles - Artem has these rather weird choices of music - so it's probably just his way.

Sophie now 11/4 2nd favourite ahead of 3/1 Susanna.  Ashley vs Patrick has become very close. 

This week's Swingathon is a good chance to get rid of the Strictly non tourers, Sophie, Ashley and Patrick.  I wouldn't want to be backing Sophie until after this week.  I can see Ashley and Sophie first out in the Swingathon, and Ashley is likely in trouble if that happens.

First 20 seconds of the swingathon this year is choreographed and is the same for everyone. Then it is a free for all.

Would suggest Sophie will do well in her main dance this week, although I think Abbey looked best in the early training. Susanna - no h - looks to be doing another boom or bust dance. Michael Jackson Argentine Tango, if you please...

You know you are in trouble when you have to get your celeb doing the bongos at the start of the routine

That said, Ashley boring did a respectable routine

Could be in bottom 2 trouble though

Some wag on the Betfair Forum on Patrick
10% dancing, 60% standing, 30% dragging. 

This is not an Argentine Tango

Hopefully mark her right down for it

Have recorded it because of the Spurs match, so will be watching from 8.15ish. Just so you know I'm not ignorring the thread :)

It wasn't an Argentine Tango Tal!

Michael Jackson music for a sexy Argentine bar routine indeed!

Pfft!

 

Marv

the only contestant I am agnostic about (no money to stay in or go out) is doing a showstopper to popular music in hold

Expecting high marks for Abby.

Nat bottom 2 looking good from here.  Just don't think she'll get the fans out.  Unfortunately Ladbrokes were easily best price.  Whoever is bottom 2 is in trouble if Nat is in there.  

Natalie and Ashley

Drama.....

Choices of music tonight are terrible

Producers doing them no favours.

Ashley top man bet is in terrible trouble

Nat safe.  Think Ashley needs Susanna in the bottom 2.  Patrick marking interesting again. 

think the public will vote Susanna out of the bottom 2

Sophie and Ashley I think

Patrick seems to be a judges favourite.

Sophie polls ahead of her.  Some petulence on show again tonight from Susanna and Ashley.  I don't think that will go down too well either, even if it is for show?  Guess Abbey could be down there just because people might assume she is safe. 

I backed Patrick at a big price for top male so it isn't money talking, but he seems to have done Ben's trick tonight.  Just stand around while your girl does all the dancing. 

Early Digital Spy Poll.

Week 11: Who was your favourite couple?

View Poll Results: Who was your favourite couple?
Abbey & Aljaz      48   27.91%
Ashley & Ola      28   16.28%
Natalie & Artem      32   18.60%
Patrick & Anya      9   5.23%
Sophie & Brendan      44   25.58%
Susanna & Kevin      11   6.40%

Marks

Natalie & Artem PD (2) 9989 = 35 + 6 = 41 (6)
Patrick & Anya Rumba (3) 81099 = 36 + 5 = 41 (6)

Abbey & Aljaz VW 99910 (5) = 37 + 3 = 40 (5)

Sophie & Brendan Tango (6) 9889 = 34 + 4 = 38 (4)

Ashley & Ola Salsa (1) 8999 = 35 + 2 = 37 (3)

Susanna & Kevin AT (4) 8888 = 32 + 1 = 33 (2)

If the poll is replicated, Ashley and Susanna bottom 2.  Maybe Patrick isn't safe, as he seems a sure thing for a 1 in the public vote?  It could be a really close thing for him in the bottom 2 if the bottom 3 have big fan bases?

Anybody any idea how they deal with ties as there are only ever 2 in the dance off? 

If the petulance thing you're on about is the swingathon, that was a choreographed thing, because they all did it apart from Abbey and Aljaž, who I assume were too busy being beautiful to remember to think.

Kevin did have the unfortunate habit of looking like he'd bitten into a lemon whenever the camera came to him.

Some really daft song choices tonight (whether dancers' or producers' choice).

Ashley or Susanna to go. Be a shame as I've backed them both!

I have started to reclaim my life and go out again on sat nights, but thought I could come here and get an idea as to what is going on.

Between Tighty sounding to have kittens during the show and some numbers added together, I haven't a clue.

Cliffs anyone?

I wonder, afficianados, if much can be learnt from the following?

Each of them have to do two of the following this weekend, and learn them in four days

Abbey & Aljaž    Two of: Samba / American Smooth / Argentine Tango                   
Natalie & Artem    Two of: Foxtrot / Argentine Tango / Salsa                   
Patrick & Anya    Two of: Waltz / Paso doble / Argentine Tango                   
Sophie & Brendan    Two of: Paso doble / American Smooth / Salsa                   
Susanna & Kevin    Two of: Foxtrot / Rumba / Salsa    

If we had to put our last fiver down, who would we have it on, right now?

Sophie Aloof 9/4
Gumball 9/4
Abbey Road 4/1
Gurner Reid 9/2
Patrick Man 25/1                

 

Is it the case that in the final it doesn't really matter how well they dance, as the judges don't score them, and only the public vote counts?

If that's the case then there is a huge inflexion point with Susanna - she'll do surprisingly well in the final, provided she gets there. The only one she can beat in a dance off is Patrick, and even then, I'd make him favourite against her.

Shame we don't have more money, as backing The Gurner at 9/2 with Boyles and laying her at 7/2 when Betfair is fixed is obvious.  I'd put my last fiver on Abbey at the minute, and not only because I have covered the rest.  I wouldn't take 4/1, as she is bigger on Betfair, I am probably going to try and get some at a bit bigger than 9/2.  I am a bit irritated by her price crash, as I could have covered at 14/1 the other week.  I think she is quite likeable, which isn't something I would have expected earlier.  Same with Sophie, I am pretty much a hater on her music, like her as a person.  Susanna definitely gone the other way for me.

Patrick is a bet at 1/5 first to go if he reaches the final.  Loses in every poll, clearly bottom of the public vote too.  Giving him a 10 for walking round the dance floor and looking emotional seems excessive, but the 16/1 for Top Man will help me get over it.

Susanna was clearly 1 or 2 with the public vote, but that might just be a reflection of a bigger vote when you are bottom.  She might struggle on the two dances too.  I wouldn't take 7/2, which is where I think she settles.  I have laid some of the 9/2 off I took at the weekend, but probably won't lay it all.  Shame I can't get on with Ladbrokes as they were 5/1 late on Saturday night.

I know that the Betfair forum has been calling it as Sophie vs Susanna for a while, but last fiver on Abbey for me.  Of course Nat would win if it was just a dancing comp.  I would probably put some more on her if she went 3/1.  I am not backing Sophie at 9/4, but I really don't need any more money on her anyway.

Yes the final is 100% public vote

Susanna 9/2 is very interesting. Has a real chance on popularity but has to make it through this weekend to get there

She was bottom on judges this week, must have been top two public vote to not be in the dance off and got an enormous studio ovation when she survived

Bear with me Rich, whilst I give that matter of great import some thought.

Don't do a thing until I get back to you, ok?

Did anyone back Susanna at 9/2 and lay at 7/2?  I got 4.7, think I could probably have been a bit more greedy and got 4.5.  Only youwin still 9/2 now, every week they seem so slow to react.

6 was laid on Abbey earlier, and guess you can be a bit more greedy there if you think 5/1 is a good price.

The way Susanna and Sophie have been backed we might yet see Nat at 3/1 by the end of the week.

Personally, I think the Natalie ship has sailed.

She's said before, after coming through the back problems, she's now just going to enjoy it. What I see is a giddy girl who's having a whale of a time, but who isn't endearing herself to the public. Artem is choreographing dances that are very much different from the traditional and saying to hell with convention. The result is getting "samey", Artem looks grumpy when they don't get top marks and one or both of them cry each week. That may all be completely harsh and they may be absolutely loved by everyone on set and at home. But that's my perception.

I would now be surprised if she won.

I can't believe I've just typed that. But I would.

Abbey has become much more loveable than I expected; she's way less ditzy and waggy than her persona and she looks to be having an absolute ball. She has come on leaps and bounds in both disciplines and they are the "cute" couple the competition probably needs. She's grown in popularity and the judges obviously like her. I think she has been overhyped a little but she seems so enthusiastic that it's coming across in her performance really well. She has been the dark horse, now thrust into the limelight (ignore mixed metaphor)

Patrick can't win. Not just that he isn't popular enough; he isn't good enough. He's done fantastically well and has improved hugely in both disciplines, but his posture in ballroom (perhaps partly due to the unfair height difference between him and Anya) will stop him from lifting the glitter ball trophy.

Susanna has performance in spades and has a partner who looks as happy as a puppy in a puddle whenever he's on the dancefloor. She is strongest in the performance dances, as we saw in the Paso in Blackpool. Of late, she has lost some of her magic and I've spoken before about how I think Kevin isn't setting her achievable dances. He's not being smart. If he turns that round and gives her an easier routine, she'll nail it and they will fly.

Sophie, for me, has a defined persona. She won't wear fake tan (I like that) and she's got that aloof vibe (I don't like that). Her strengths are very much in the Roaring Twenties dances like the Charleston and the Foxtrot . It means she can star in the final, because she can focus on those showstopping dances.


On those odds, I'd go with Susanna. If all four were even, I'd probably go Abbey.

Tal, you can get 9/2 Abbey on Betfair, best you can get on Susanna is 4/1 outside youwin.  If you are backing Abbey when they are all the same pricem you should surely back her when biggest of the 4?

We've got Natalie e/w top 3....is the final (public vote) top 3 ?

Final is top 4.  She is obviously safe if Patrick makes the final.

Meant to post this earlier, James Jordan taking the result well.

https://twitter.com/The_JamesJordan
 (https://twitter.com/The_JamesJordan)

#fixathon made me smile.

Probably not the best application for the next series.

final 4

5 left, one leaves this weekend

next weekend 4th to 1st decided

Natalie is the best dancer but won't win

Susanna 9/2 not laid off yet here

Been a long day. Sorry.

These markets seem to change so dramatically. It's silly. We know what their strengths and weaknesses are and we have a good idea of popularity. One bad dance doesn't change their chances of winning; just their chances of going out next (I know that's relevant but you know what I mean).

It's been fun this year bringing in the odds side to where my interest/love lies. I make a nice profit if Abbey or Susanna win and I really believe they are the two most likely to win from this point. Only by a Cuban heel, mind.

But I don't have the market knowledge of someone like Doobs and I don't think the others are out of it (Patrick is big outsider, but stranger things have happened). Nat is the most talented and, in Sophie's favour, Brendan has been great in the show these last few weeks.

Nat and Sophie can only win if their partners take a more pragmatic line in their choreography, IMO. Of the two, Sophie's Kevin is more likely. Nat should get top three. It would be pretty criminal if she didn't get there.

There is nothing wrong with a wildly swinging market Tal.  If the prices were set and didn't change much, there wouldn't be half as many opportunities to make money as there has been this series. 

It is a great gambling event, you get the pure kind of gambling where it is simply your view vs someone else's, then you can just make money due to the sloth like behaviour of some bookmakers.   You don't often get to lay at 7/2 on the exchange and back at 9/2 with a bookmaker after the exchange has moved in horse racing.  But even without seeing the exchange price, it seemed pretty clear that 5/1 with Ladbrokes was too big for Susanna after she topped* the poll (* or was maybe 2nd).  There should always be a price you'd back each of them (though maybe it would have to be enormous on Patrick), and I'd say all the top 4 have looked a bit too big at times.

I think Patrick has no hope at all.  Barring maybe 1 week, he has been consistently near the bottom of every poll I have seen.  He has been bottom 2 before, and he clearly got the lowest public vote this week.  I'd say that must be fairly unusual for somebody who was top of the judges marking.   Even if the judges are mark him fairly in the final, I expect a significant part of the voting public are still going to think it is a fix.    The prices on him to go first in the final are going to be interesting if the judges can drag him there.  I am not sure they can all be too short to put me off.

I don't think I'd be surprised if any of the girls won.  I still think this was pivotal YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EScCL66L-U

Susanna favourite on Betfair right now. 

Sophie 3.75
Nat 3.7
Susanna 3.6
Abbey 5.3
Patfix 50

Sophie must be the bet right now?  I think I am going to have to work out my net position tomorrow.  There is a good chance Sophie isn't my biggest winner.

Telling this week that Natalie got 40 and yet, as Brucie pointed out, no standing ovation from the audience.

I don't think she can win in a 100% public vote

the moment craig gave sophie an 8, she got another 1m phone votes


natalie top 3 but susanna is the most popular, by far

How can you be sure she is the most popular, by far?  I can see she won last week's vote, and there was the Star story, but the Star story was only that she won last week's vote.  On the polls I have been watching, I'd say Sophie is the most popular.  Admittedly those polls could be wrong, and are dominated by die hards, but they don't seem that consistent with Susanna having a huge lead.  Also Sophie's week 2 dance has had most hits of all the dances on youtube by far.

Think this week could be interesting.  That extra point is probably enough to save Sophie from the bottom 2.  Pat looks a cert, but I'd make Nat the favourite to join him.  I think The Susanna and Sophie votes mean they could jump Abbey and Nat.  This is despite the fact Nat was clearly best tonight.

On the judging, Sophie Paso > Sophie American Smooth.  I also smiled a bit when Craig mentioned Susanna's facial expressions.  Abbey is finishing very strongly, but still not sure she can really win.

My book is Sophie big winner, Nat decent winner, Abbey and Susanna tiny losers.  Pat would be a small catastrophe, but can't see the judges saving him vs Nat or Abbey. 
   

Susanna 11/10!

Going to have to close the 9/2 position after the show tonight


Think I might have to switch to Abbey at 4/1. Going to be very close but feel thats a price. Was very impressed with that American Smooth last night

She just looks so grumpy - clearly knows she is the best but has no chance of winning.

Digital Spy Poll currently.  Susanna frequently scores poorly there, but Abbey is definitely polling better over time.

Semi Final: Who was your favourite couple?

View Poll Results: Who was your favourite couple?
Abbey & Aljaz      182   33.21%
Natalie & Artem      129   23.54%
Patrick & Anya      18   3.28%
Sophie & Brendan   166   30.29%
Susanna & Kevin      53   9.67%

Semi Final: Who was your LEAST favourite couple?

Abbey & Aljaz      42   9.15%
Natalie & Artem      76   16.56%
Patrick & Anya      125   27.23%
Sophie & Brendan   40   8.71%
Susanna & Kevin      176   38.34%

Betfair odds (mid)
Susanna 2.03
Abbey 4.2
Sophie 5.55
Natalie 10.5

poll has too be totally wrong for nat too end up in the dance off she had too finish last in the voting or 2nd last behind patrick

patrick last week also had too have finished last with the public too finish in the dance off with ashley

and basically susanna had too win public vote both times for patrick to finish in bottom 2 last week and nat too finish in bottom 2 this week
as they were leading after the judges votes

I posted a brief foreword to this weekend's main event on the Tips for Tikay thread earlier today:



SCD followers will know everyone dances once before the first couple leaves. That dance is the judges' choice.

Abbey will be doing a Waltz (week 1 - scores 8-8-8-8: 32)
Natalie will be doing a Cha Cha (week 1 - 8-8-8-7: 31)
Sophie will be doing a Viennese Waltz (week 10 - 9-9-9-9: 36)
Susanna will be doing a Quickstep (week 10 - 7-8-9-9: 33)

So that's three ballroom dances and one latin. Natalie struggled with her hips in that dance and it is quite a quick cha-cha. I'd argue there is a definite advantage to Sophie and Susanna in having dances they have only recently done. Must save a bit of time on the training this week! Susanna got into a bit of a mess a couple of times and would be eager to put those footwork errors right. Sophie had a shoulder issue in hold (as she tensed up, her left shoulder came up a little and she lost her neckline). That won't be an issue this time. Brendan will make sure of it.

I think there's an argument that the one to go is most likely to be Natalie or Abbey, because the Waltz lovers might prefer Sophie's Viennese, which I can see getting 38+. Susanna's dance, if she nails it, will be a knockout job, but that's a big if. The public will carry her through to the last three anyway.

In the last three, we have the showdance, where anything goes (not necessarily in a Cole Porter way). They then get to choose their own favourite and curiously Abbey hadn't chosen her salsa from the other night that got 40. She's doing a quickstep instead, so two ballroom dances. Natalie will do the American Smooth and the other two are more predictable: Sophie's Charleston and Susanna's Paso.

Were I a betting man, Susanna - Sophie - Abbey - Natalie would be my order.

Slightly confused as the sky planner is saying all four of the couples dance twice tonight in the first show. That's not what I heard on It Takes Two.  If they are only doing three dances, that would seem odd to have just one in the second show. Can anyone clarify?

The showdance. This is the free-for-all, anything goes dance, where you have a minute and a half to go nuts and show the world what you can so. Lifts, Latin, ballroom, breakdance, pogo, anything you like.

Remember when men could dance?

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMq11vjKYmo

At the other end of the scale was Tom Chambers, who did a spectacular ballroom-based one to win his series:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLZrTyJ14d0

We get his Fred Astaire Top Hat opening. Then it starts as a foxtrot, then the timing switches and he goes into that flatter tango hold. Then it speeds up and they go into a quickstep to finish, with all those brilliant lifts in between.

And I thought Matt Di Angelo did this fantastically. He was up against the popular Alesha Dixon (remember her?), who was partnered by the best professional dancer Strictly has ever had: Matthew Cutler. So, Matt had little chance, but boy did he go full out on this one!


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbIXck78IuM

Right, then.

Abbey's waltz was beautiful, but I think Sophie's footwork is better in ballroom. She travels much further - they're both leggy girls - and gets more rise and fall. Nevertheless, Abbey's top line is astonishing for an amateur, where Sophie's, whilst much better than week 10, is still noticeably a weakness in an otherwise joyously elegant armour.

Natalie - and I've checked this with my correspondent - doesn't straighten her legs perfectly on occasion in the cha cha and that means she loses a little of the fluidity of hip we like to see. I think she was overmarked. Susanna had the toughest dance for me on paper, with an incredibly quick and spring-loaded quickstep. I said in week 10 that the dance was too hard for her and that she struggled to cope. Not this time. She hit her marks and, although I will say she could have done a slightly less frenetic dance with more pizzazz, it was a belter nonetheless.

And now the showdances.

Two were absolutely fantastic.

Two I was disappointed with.

I still believe Natalie has been the best dancer overall throughout the WHOLE series.

I also believe because it is a popularity vote that she will NOT win.

I think maybe the judges also realise this and therefore maybe marked her up tonight in the hope to sway public opinion....

just my thoughts

Artem likes a gamble when it comes to choreography. Some weeks, his eccentricity gets the better of him and he loses the flow of the theme of the dance; it gets to look a bit unnatural. So, he gambled again, because gamblers gotta gamble. Natalie's showdance might be the best showdance of any series. It had everything and threw in two kitchen sinks.

Abbey came out to one of the most iconic songs of my lifetime in Sweet Child O'Mine but her performance was more Chinese Democracy than Appetite for Destruction. It had all the right bits but no soul and no precision. She looked off balance on occasion but she looked to me that she was slightly ahead, as though she was remembering the routine and had the next bit ready. That's entirely understandable, but it isn't what it's supposed to look like. What on Earth were they thinking with those jets? If the judges can't see you dancing during the routine, what manner of idiot thinks that's a good idea? Not a good one for me.

Sophie sizzles when she is on her game and she looked like she was having the time of her life, dancing to an 80s disco classic. But she doesn't look all that natural when doing samba and that is unfortunate. She's come on so much though and I've warmed to her. I just didn't like the showdance.

Kevin designed a dance that didn't have a marching band going through the middle or the red arrows flying overhead. He did a dance. A proper dance. It told a story that none of the others got close to telling. It was utterly and mindbendingly beautiful. An absolute tearjerker and magnificently danced with total heart and conviction. A level I did not expect Susanna to reach. Then Darcey says it didn't have the wow factor. I'm sorry. No. Prima Ballerina or no Prima Ballerina. No. I had to pick up the phone and vote!

The public will I hope save Natalie. Susanna to win, says my head.

Well put, taximan. There may be some truth in that, but it is an entertainment show at the end of the day

I think the low scores for Sophie on the showdance will actually help her - make supporters think she's in danger and vote for her.

I'm the opposite of Mystic Meg.

Meh,  think the phone lines open after the first dance did for her.   Much more time to vote the other 3 after their 2nd.

Abbey vs The Gurner.  Susanna a winner for me, Abbey a loser.

I've just tried to claw back my losses on voting for Natalie to go by betting on Abbey to win.

So pleased for Natalie. Faith in humanity duly restored.

Now I need her not to win.

Who's going to mention Abbey going wrong?

Good on you, Len.

Whatever the result NATALIE is MY WINNER

Amazing.

(Still not an American Smooth with so little in hold)

 ;hide;

Phew.

Wow!

lol sigh

Last minute panic backing after the Mirror story last night made Susanna a winner and Abbey a loser for me. 

Can't get grouchy. I think Abbey probably deserved it above Susanna and Sophie in the end, as she was definitely the big improver of the last few weeks.   I did get a few quid at good prices, just kept missing the price with her, and mostly ended up not betting.

Yeah, I'm please Abbey won - she most 'went on a journey' through the series. Natalie could dance before she started, and Susannah and Sophie both had flaws with their dancing.

Dancing expert me.

Can pick winners weeks before the final

Skill game!

Go on. Really put me on tilt.

What price was she on November 2nd?

Without looking (not sure how I would find it out anyway!) at some point, I'm sure you would have got 14/1.

It must have only been 3 weeks ago when I mentioned her at 9/1?  I would be surprised if you couldn't beat 20/1 back then.  I think Abbey came from a long way back and Nat was really short for a long time.

Edit.  Looked back on the Betfair specials forum.  That was the week Abbey did really well but finished bottom 2, so think 12/1, 14/1 probably right.  Think she drifted out a bit from there before the charge of the last 3 or 4 weeks.

Has BigAdz hacked your account?

Fair result in the end, think Andrew summed it up perfectly well.

Big thank you to Tal for such an informative thread. Looking forward to 2014

That's very sweet of you, taximan. Thank you

It would only after timing if I had backed the bloody woman

If you followed my Weekly Video update of the UKPC - compelling viewing, if I may make so bold - you'd have seen me tip the winner days ago. You do watch all my stuff, right? 4 Video Updates, 4 tips, 4 winners.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/strictly-come-dancing/10533534/Fiona-Fullerton-on-the-Strictly-final-I-laughed-and-I-cried-and-I-felt-privileged-to-be-there.html

Somewhat eye-opening impression